DraftKings Thursday Night Showdown
Happy Week 16 of the NFL season. This Thursday night showdown features the 11-3 Rams traveling to Seattle to face the 11-3 Seahawks. The Rams have clinched a playoff spot. The Seahawks secure a playoff spot with a win against the Rams or a Detroit Lions loss.
The Seahawks are currently a 1.5-point home favorite. The over/under is 42.5. This game is a rematch of Week 11, when the Rams won at home 21-19.
We have consistently noticed how unpredictable the Thursday night games are, especially divisional games. This one is no different.
Notable Stats From Week 11 Matchup
- Sam Darnold attempted 44 passes, completed 29, for 279 yards, zero touchdowns, and four interceptions.
- Kenneth Walker led the Seahawks’ backfield with 16 rushing attempts. He averaged 4.2 yards per carry. He finished with 67 rushing yards, three targets, three receptions, for 44 receiving yards and a touchdown.
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba led the Seahawks with 12 targets, nine receptions for 105 yards.
- AJ Barner was second on the team with 11 targets, 10 receptions, and 70 yards.
- Matthew Stafford attempted 28 passes, completed 15 for 130 yards and two touchdowns.
- Kyren Williams led the backfield with 12 rushing attempts for 91 yards. He averaged 7.6 yards per attempt. Williams was also targeted twice, with one reception for five yards.
- Puka Nacua led the team with eight targets and seven receptions for 75 yards.
- Davante Adams also had eight targets. He finished the game with one reception, one yard, and one touchdown.
Current State of The Stats
Los Angeles Rams Defense
- 12th in passing yards per game allowed, 237.2
- Allow the fourth most wide receiver receptions per game, 12.9
- Allow the sixth most wide receiver yards per game, 160.9
- Allow the 11th most running back receptions.
But, they have only allowed five rushing touchdowns
Seattle Seahawks Defense
- Running backs are averaging 5.7 receptions per game
- Allow the fifth-most running back receiving yards per game, 40.2
- Allow the second-most-tight-end receptions game, 6.5
- Allow the fourth most tight ends yards per game, 68
They are giving up the fewest yards per reception, 9.5.
The Adams Project
Davante Adams is trending towards not playing in this game. Adams is the NFL leader in receiving touchdowns (14) and red zone targets (31). He has accounted for 38% of Matthew Stafford’s 37 touchdown passes, and Adams has a 67% target share in the red zone, also league-leading.
Prop Bets
Anytime Touchdown Probability (courtesy of vsn)
| Kyren Williams | 50.5% |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 46.8% |
| Puka Nuca | 41.1% |
| Zach Charbonnet | 37.4% |
| Blake Corum | 34.8% |
| Colby Parkinson | 33.7% |
| Kenneth Walker | 33.0% |
| AJ Barner | 25.6% |
Sam Darnold
230.5 passing yards, OVER, -115
In their last meeting, yes, Darnold threw for four interceptions, but he also had 279 passing yards.
Darnold has at least 231 passing yards in nine of 14 games.
There is a chance that the Rams are Darnold’s kryptonite, going back to last year’s playoff game.
Matthew Stafford
1.5 Passing Touchdowns, OVER, +105
Stafford has two or more touchdown passes in all but two games this season.
He currently has eight straight games with at least two touchdown passes.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba
88.5 receiving yards, UNDER
This has nothing to do with Smith-Njigba’s talent and more to do with the Rams’ defense, Darnold, and the weather. (In their Week 11 meeting, Njigba went for 105 yards on nine receptions.)
In his last three games, Njigba has 92, 23, and 167 receiving yards, respectively.
Kyren Williams
53.5 rushing yards, OVER
Williams’ season average is 73.6.
In his last three games, Williams has: 72, 84, and 78 rushing yards.
(Although price point, Blake Corum is the better option, or play both).
Line Movements
There is a 90% chance of rain at game time, with expected winds of 13 mph and gusts up to 20mph. The forecast is causing some lines to move significantly.
- The game total opened at 45.5 and has dropped to 42.
- Smith-Njigba’s longest reception number has dropped from 28.5 to 26.5.
NFL Showdown $50K Huddle [Single Entry] Rams v Seahawks
- Captain: RB, K. Williams, $14,700
- Flex: RB, B. Corum, $4,800
- Flex: TE, C. Parkinson $5,400
- Flex: WR, R. Shaheed, $6,600
- Flex: QB, M. Stafford, $10,400
- Flex: RB, K. Walker, $7,200
The Other Guys
- WR, P. Nacua $12,000
- WR, J. Smith-Njigba, $11,600
- QB, S. Darnold, $9,400
- RB, Z. Charbonnet, $6,200
- WR, C. Kupp, $5,600
- TE, A. Barner, $4,400
- DST Rams, $4,000
- DST Seahawks, $3,600
- WR, T. Atwell, $3,400
- TE, T. Ferguson, $1,600
And of Course…
*Monitor Adams’ status (could he be pulling another Amon-Ra St. Brown Thursday night miracle?). Even if Adams is a decoy (like St. Brown), his presence on the field is a difference maker. If Adams plays, Nacua gets in my lineup.
*Although he had a five-touchdown game in 2023 against the Jacksonville Jaguars in the rain, Stafford has historically struggled in the rain with a 54% completion percentage and a 1-5 record.
*Nacua is always in play…always has a slate-breaking ceiling and a high floor. Not playing him in this single entry is a hunch, not backed by statistical data (and again, if Adams plays, Nacua is in the lineup).
*Playing either defense is a valid option, and both at the 4K price point have the potential of hitting/surpassing their value.
*Terrance Ferguson came in last week and was on the field for 78% of the offensive snaps. He had two targets, with one reception and six yards.
Good Luck, and play nice.