College Football Playoff quarterfinal action gets underway on New Year’s Eve, when the Miami Hurricanes and Ohio State Buckeyes collide in the Cotton Bowl at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas. Miami, the No. 10 seed, won its first-round game in the same state — scraping past Texas A&M 10-3. Ohio State, the No. 2 seed, secured an opening bye despite losing in the Big Ten Championship to Indiana.
Let’s dive into my Miami vs. Ohio State predictions.
Miami Hurricanes vs. Ohio State Buckeyes odds
Money line: Miami +285 / Ohio State -360
Spread: Miami +9.5 (-110) / Ohio State -9.5 (-110)
Total: Over 41.5 (-105) / Under 41.5 (-115)
Miami Hurricanes vs. Ohio State Buckeyes best bet #1: Under 41.5 (-115)
The Cotton Bowl is a battle between two of the best defenses in college football. Heading into this contest the Buckeyes rank No. 1 nationally in total defense, surrendering a mere 213.5 yards per game. They are No. 1 in scoring defense, as well, giving up just 8.2 points per game. The Hurricanes are not far behind, ranking No. 10 in total defense (281.5 yards allowed) and No. 4 in scoring (13.0 ppg allowed). Wednesday’s tilt will probably be played at a slow, methodical pace. Neither Miami nor Ohio State really pushes the ball down the field with a whole lot of urgency. The U is 80th in the country in total plays run per game; OSU is 115th in that department. If these two teams do go on scoring drives, you can expect them to be relatively time-consuming slogs.
Miami’s CFP first-round game against Texas A&M resulted in a grand total of 13 points (the ‘Canes won10-3). They held the Aggies to 89 rushing yards and forced three turnovers. The Buckeyes’ most recent outing was a 13-10 loss to Indiana in the Big Ten Championship.
Miami Hurricanes vs. Ohio State Buckeyes best player prop bet: Mark Fletcher Jr. Over 55.5 rushing yards (-114)
There is no denying that Ohio State’s defense is outstanding, but that’s why you can get Fletcher’s yardage quota all the way down at 55.5. As good as the Buckeyes are against the run, they are even better against the pass. In fact, head coach Ryan Day’s crew is No. 1 in the land in passing defense. Miami’s best plan of attack is to keep the ball on the ground — also a good idea for facing an opponent that is superior on paper, thus minimizing the overall number of possessions.
Expect the bulk of those carries to go to Fletcher. Girard Pringle Jr. briefly shared duties in the Hurricanes’ backfield after Fletcher missed two weeks in November with an injury, but order has been restored to the pecking order. In their first-round defeat of Texas A&M, Fletcher rushed 17 times for 172 yards. By contrast, Pringle got just one carry. In Fletcher’s last five games, he has amassed 84 yards or more three times and has scored four TDs during this stretch.