Men’s college basketball Top 25: Michigan’s dominance is breaking Vegas

The best team in college basketball has broken the algorithm the oddsmakers use to set lines. On Friday, Michigan hosted No. 24 USC and was a 22.5-point favorite against a ranked opponent.

Annnnd it wasn’t enough.

Michigan has now played three ranked opponents and, according to ESPN Stats and Info, the Wolverines are the first team in Associated Press Top 25 poll history to beat three straight ranked opponents by 30 or more points.

• Beat No. 21 Auburn by 30 on Nov. 25.
• Beat No. 12 Gonzaga by 40 on Nov. 26.
• Beat No. 24 USC by 30 on Friday.

And somehow, it felt like Michigan was a little off on Friday. Like USC was fortunate to only lose 96-66.

Arizona, which remained No. 1 in the AP poll to end 2025, still has more ranked wins (five), including a win at UConn, and it’s justification for AP voters to still vote the Wildcats No. 1 on Monday, the first poll in two weeks.

But at some point, will enough voters make the switch to Michigan?

This is historic domination.

In addition to the work against ranked opponents, the Wolverines have now covered in eight of their last nine games, outpacing the spread by 162 points (18 points per game) over that time. In comparison, Arizona has covered the spread eight times this year by a total of 69 points above the spread, and that’s only counting the games when Arizona has covered.

Vegas will continue to try to catch up, and Michigan might keep crushing those lines, no matter how preposterous they get. According to KenPom’s projections, Michigan is a double-digit favorite in 13 of its final 18 games.

More below on a new stat that Michigan is better at than everyone else, the passing senses that have Purdue’s Braden Smith breaking assist records, BYU’s AJ Dybantsa outpacing Kevin Durant, Nebraska forcing opponents outside the arc, Alabama’s unselfish bigs, SMU’s Boopie Miller putting on a show and Kevin Willard adjusting to the Villanova ways.

Dropped out: Florida, Kentucky

Keeping an eye on: Saint Louis, Clemson, Miami, Utah State, Ohio State, UCF

1. Michigan (13-0)

My favorite Christmas gift this year: A new KenPom statistic!

Ken Pomeroy recently introduced the average 2-point attempt distance, and Michigan is No. 1 in opponents’ distance (8.1 feet). That means the Wolverines force opponents to shoot farther from the basket on 2-point attempts than anyone in the sport.

A lot has been made of Michigan’s length — the Wolverines start 6-foot-9 Yaxel Lendeborg, 6-9 Morez Johnson Jr., and 7-3 Aday Mara up front — but the other key to this stat is the ability to keep the ball in front via a switch-heavy scheme.

On Friday, five minutes had passed by the time USC attempted a shot inside the arc, and the Trojans had six turnovers. Paint touches that force help are a rarity against the Wolverines. Only six times has an opponent penetrated and been able to dump off a pass to score on a layup or dunk, and one of those occurred in garbage time on Friday.

Instead, Michigan is forcing more runners (5.9 per game) than any team in the country and the second-most 2-point jumpers (9.5 per game), according to Synergy.

That’s how Michigan is not only leading college basketball in 2-point field goal percentage (38.5) but is 2.5 percent ahead of second-place UC Irvine.

5. Purdue (13-1)

Braden Smith continues his march toward the NCAA’s career assist record and set the Big Ten’s record on Saturday at Wisconsin, breaking former Michigan State guard Cassius Winston’s record.

Smith makes passes that other small guards struggle to deliver. He does it with his eyes, the ability to contort his body and throw from funky angles (with the help of his length — a 6-5 wingspan), and timing. We’ll call them his passing senses.

Of his 12 assists against the Badgers, his passes to center Oscar Cluff were the best of the bunch and showed how he uses those three senses.

Let’s start with the contortion and length. This pass is around a 6-10 big man, zipped right past his left ear:

Zipping passes around the ear is taught. Zipping a bounce pass at that angle? No one teaches that.

On this next one, watch Smith’s eyes. He keeps them on the rim until the last second:

Smith’s unpredictability is why defenders struggle to position themselves.  Again, on this next one, watch Smith keep his eyes on the rim. Nolan Winter, a 7-footer, is in perfect position to contest and block Smith from seeing Cluff. Doesn’t matter.

Austin Rapp (No. 22 for Wisconsin) should be helping the helper here, but Rapp has to respect Smith’s ability to throw the hook pass to Jack Benter on the left wing when he turns the corner. That hesitation from Rapp is why Cluff is open.

This final one is where Smith is an expert when it comes to timing and allowing the pieces to move to his advantage. Initially, Cluff is bracketed with Nick Boyd (Wisconsin’s No. 2) in to help, but once Gicarri Harris lifts up the floor, Boyd leaves Cluff and again Smith throws the perfect pass at the right arm angle over the Winter to set up Cluff:

Smith has double-digit assists in four of his last five games. He has only done that one other time in his career. He might catch Bobby Hurley faster than we thought.

9. BYU (13-1)

AJ Dybantsa is on a seven-game run of scoring 20-plus, and he’s averaging 25.9 points per game over that stretch.

Dybantsa’s idol is Kevin Durant, who is the most unguardable scorer I’ve ever seen come through college hoops. Here’s how Dybantsa compares to Durant through 14 games:

They’re different players, but Dybantsa’s ability to consistently put up numbers is special. And similar to Durant, he’s getting better the deeper we get into the season.

11. Nebraska (14-0)

Fred Hoiberg’s defense has the highest 3-point rate of any high-major in the country, with opponents attempting 51.9 percent of their shots from deep.

That ability to force teams outside was tested Friday against an old-school Michigan State team that hadn’t attempted more 3s than 2s in a game in more than five years.

That streak ended in a 58-56 win for the Huskers; Michigan State attempted 28 3s and only 22 2s.

The Huskers pulled it off by taking away Michigan State’s post touches. They met the MSU bigs early in transition to take away early duck-ins:

The Nebraska bigs were ready to absorb the body blow and not get buried. Then whenever the MSU bigs went to the blocks, Nebraska’s post defenders adjusted their position to the top side, knowing a second defender was coming baseline whenever the ball went into the post:

The Spartans finished only one possession with a post-up, which was a season-low, per Synergy’s tracking. And MSU’s 3-point rate (56 percent of shots from deep) was the fifth-highest in the Tom Izzo era.

Hoiberg’s teams are known for their offense, but this one is special on the defensive end because of its physicality and ability to execute its scheme to near perfection.

13. Alabama (11-3)

Nate Oats’ comments about Kentucky’s big men generated some social media buzz Saturday. Oats said he noticed that UK’s bigs weren’t passing the ball when it went into the post — they had just seven assists in those situations all season — and so he told his guards to send extra help when it went inside, because “these guys aren’t trying to pass.”

This was good insight into how Oats uses numbers to drive decision-making, but also into how he sees the game. He wants unselfish bigs, and the unselfishness of Alabama’s bigs is what makes the system work so well and helps generate so many good 3-point looks.

It’s rare for the Crimson Tide to throw the ball into the post. Instead, their bigs get a lot of paint touches on rolls and are willing passers when the opponent sends extra defenders:

Oats also trains his bigs to hunt for screening opportunities to set up shooters:

How about a pass and a screen? Done:

Final result: Alabama had 17 assists, Kentucky had nine and Alabama won by 15.

15. Illinois (11-3)

After losing to UConn on Nov. 28, Illinois coach Brad Underwood moved freshman Keaton Wagler from off the ball to point guard, and the Illini offense has been unstoppable since.

In those six games, the Illini are scoring 136.7 points per 100 possessions with Wagler on the floor and outscoring opponents — which includes five high-majors — by 35.1 points per 100 possessions, according to CBB Analytics.

Wagler is averaging 17.8 points and 6.2 assists with a 63.1 effective field-goal percentage over that stretch. He’s so dependable and makes such smart decisions that Underwood has a hard time ever taking him off the floor.

Wagler had just two high-major offers in high school, and those didn’t come until the fall of his senior year. He’s one of the best stories in college basketball.

24. SMU (12-2)

Boopie Miller scored 27 points on 13 shots and had 12 assists in Saturday’s 99-83 win over North Carolina, and it’s the best single-game highlight reel I’ve witnessed all season.

Unbelieve outing for SMU’s Boopie Miller vs UNC today.

Very undervalued when you think of the superstars in college basketball, he’s been elite all year and today was no different

27 points
4 rebounds
12 assists (2 TOVS)
10-13 FG
3-5 3PT
33 Mins

I love Miller’s ability to… pic.twitter.com/d9oygtJ6yN

— Arman Jovic (@PDTScouting) January 3, 2026

Miller, averaging 20.4 points and 7.4 assists, is a legitimate All-America candidate, and he does his best work off the bounce. Between pick-and-rolls and isolation plays, including when he passes, Miller, who played two years at Central Michigan and one at Wake Forest before joining SMU in 2024, has generated 282 points this season, and his team is scoring 1.17 points per possession when he’s working out of those situations. The Heels were hopeless trying to stop him.

25. Villanova (12-2)

First-year coach Kevin Willard has adjusted his style to fit the Villanova blueprint. The Wildcats are shooting 46.4 percent of their shots from deep — the highest 3-point rate of Willard’s career — and making 37.3 percent of those while playing the slowest tempo (352nd nationally) of Willard’s career.

Among high-major teams, Villanova has made one of the biggest leaps in preseason expectations at KenPom to its current ranking:

The Willard effect is real. Villanova was picked seventh in the Big East in the preseason by the coaches and is now, after a 12-2 start (with understandable losses to BYU and Michigan), projected by KenPom to finish second.