Late yesterday the Rangers were hit with some more bad injury news, putting Igor Shesterkin on IR with a lower body injury and putting Adam Fox back on LTIR, presumably reaggravating his lower body injury from earlier in the season. The Fox and Shesterkin injuries probably change things for the Rangers, as they are the two most important Rangers on the ice and clearly their two best players. It’s not even about the players replacing them, it’s about how long both will be out as the Rangers try to climb out of the cellar of the Metropolitan Division.
1. The Fox and Shesterkin injuries change things for the Rangers. Though they are currently in 7th place in the Metro, there was still a chance the Rangers could put it all together when healthy. They’ve only had a full lineup for a dozen or so games, and that definitely plays a role in how they’ve looked throughout the season, specifically with how inconsistent they’ve been.
Now with the Fox and Shesterkin injuries, it’s highly unlikely they can scrape together a long enough run to gain ground on the teams ahead of them. No disrespect to Jonathan Quick, but he’s not Igor Shesterkin. Ditto for Braden Schneider and Scott Morrow, who are not Adam Fox.
2. That said, Shesterkin was only placed on IR, not LTIR. He’s out at least a week. At a minimum he misses the next three games: vs Buffalo, @ Boston, and vs Seattle. But that doesn’t mean he returns immediately. We don’t know what the actual injury was, which is definitely one of the more infuriating parts of the CBA. If it’s a low grade knee/ankle sprain, then he probably returns pretty quickly. If not, he may very well be out for longer. We just don’t know and there’s no point in speculating just yet.
Fox, though, is out a minimum of three weeks or 10 games, whichever comes first. That puts his return in the last week of January during the home-and-home with the Islanders. It makes a lot more sense to just sit him through the Olympic break and just get healthy. There’s no point in having him return too soon for 2 games before the Olympic break. Give Fox the extra four weeks. He needs it.
The Fox and Shesterkin injuries should change the deadline approach
3. The biggest fear most of us had was Chris Drury attempting to buy at the deadline to try to sneak into the playoffs. I think the Fox and Shesterkin injuries change this, as it’s unlikely the Rangers are going to be in a position to realistically make the playoffs with them, let alone without them for an extended period of time.
This likely means players on expiring deals will be shopped and traded: Carson Soucy, perhaps Jonathan Quick, and of course Artemi Panarin. It’s possible all three would have been shopped regardless of the Fox and Shesterkin injuries, this just makes it far more likely.
4. There’s a piece of me that wonders if Drury will look to move Panarin before the Olympic break, much in the same vein as trading for JT Miller around this time last season. That’s the one piece the Fox and Shesterkin injuries may change, the timing of when bigger moves happen. Teams acquiring Panarin, especially those that are on the fringe and looking to jumpstart their runs, would want him for longer.
It would not be surprising to see more smoke around Panarin in the coming weeks, especially if the Rangers continue to slide.
5. One thing to watch: How the Fox and Shesterkin injuries impact the futures of players that may not have been traded. Vincent Trocheck and Braden Schneider are the two big names on the Rangers that had questionable futures. Trocheck can likely fetch a haul as a 70 point center with term and a very easily managed cap hit. Schneider is a young right handed defenseman, a coveted asset in the NHL.
The Rangers don’t need to trade either due to the Fox and Shesterkin injuries, but they look to move them sooner rather than later to “enhance the tank,” so to speak.
What about the rest of the season?
6. The season itself appeared lost before the Fox and Shesterkin injuries. Now, if anything, this may accelerate the bottom falling out on this season. If we assume both are out for two weeks, that’s five games before the Rangers head west. for a run through California. Those five games: vs BUF, @ BOS, vs SEA, vs OTT, @ PHI.
Using points percentage, that’s three playoff teams–Buffalo (on a 9-1-0 run in their last 10), Seattle, and the Flyers–and two non-playoff teams ahead of the Rangers (Boston, Ottawa). Without the Fox and Shesterkin injuries, the most realistic outcome was a 2-2-1 record in that span. Now it’s far more likely to see a 1-3-1 or worse record in that stretch, even with a returning JT Miller.
Teams don’t go on runs when they lose their two best players. The Fox and Shesterkin injuries, if anything, put the final nail in the coffin on any hopes of making the playoffs.
7. The question is: How far do the Rangers fall out of it? The Rangers won’t lose every single game, but there isn’t really a soft spot in the schedule for them. Beyond the next two weeks, they have a run through California against Anaheim, LA, and San Jose. Only Anaheim is behind the Rangers in points percentage, as they’ve fallen off a cliff after their hot start, going 1-7-2 in their last 10 games.
When the Rangers return home, it’s vs Boston, a home-and-home with the Islanders, @ Pittsburgh, and vs. Carolina before the season pauses. That’s 13 games between now and the break. Can the Rangers even muster 5 wins in that span? Before the Fox and Shesterkin injuries, maybe. Now? Who knows?
If there’s one thing we do know, it’s Mike Sullivan won’t let the Fox and Shesterkin injuries impact how the team should approach the games. But the locker room gets mopey quickly, and some of this may be out of his control.
It’s going to be a rough few weeks.