The 2025 NFL season has been so hard to predict that I wish I could find a way to write off all 14 playoff teams. The good news is 13 of them will lose in the next month, and this is the moment where I make that prediction for the last team standing.
There are so many teams that I feel like you can immediately write off for one huge reason that will inevitably doom them in trying to win 3-4 playoff games in a row:
- Panthers – They’re just not good enough.
- Patriots – Schedule merchants who aren’t ready to go the distance
- Steelers – Tomlin’s playoff defense will eventually implode
- Texans – Defense is great but that offense is going to tank them eventually
- Chargers – Offensive line won’t hold up for 4 road wins
- Broncos – Stagnant offense that waits until the 4th quarter to score will doom them
- Bears – Way too reliant on D/ST fueling late-game comebacks
- Packers – Not enough horses to go on No. 7 seed run without Parsons and Kraft
That leaves six teams who I feel can win it all even though they have a glaring issue that concerns me. But it’s something I feel the rest of the team can cover up for a game or two that they can maybe squeak by.
- Bills – Run defense has been playing better and not sure who in the AFC can really run wild on them.
- Jaguars – A shame one has to lose Sunday but this could either be Trevor Lawrence’s chance to be Eli/Flacco/Foles or he implodes with too much responsibility
- Seahawks – I don’t trust Sam Darnold but he probably has the best situation going for him and he almost beat the Rams after throwing 4 INTs because of that team support.
- 49ers – Still think a core that’s been to two Super Bowls can get back home for SB 60 but the injuries (Bosa, Warner, Pearsall, etc.) make it so tough on the road.
- Eagles – Yes, their offense should probably have them in the first category, but this is why track record matters and I’m still willing to give the 2-time NFC champs with the reigning SB MVP a shot (defense is better than a year ago too).
- Rams – Probably played as well as any team has all year but they’ve blown five games and struggle to close and it’s usually the little things (short yardage runs, FG kicking, 4th down stops on D, etc.).
So how do I see it playing out? Many, many ways if I’m being honest. But if you want one version of my vision today, here it goes:
Rams take care of the Panthers, Packers eliminate the Bears, and the Eagles take out the 49ers this weekend in the NFC.
Bills outlast the Jags, the Chargers go chargering in New England, and the Steelers finally win one for Tomlin to take out the best defense.
Seattle survives a scare from Green Bay in the 7-1 matchup, and the Eagles find a way again to deny McVay and Stafford.
Buffalo eliminates Denver for the second year in a row, and the Steelers lose a game they should have won in New England.
Vic Fangio puts Sam Darnold in a blender and he implodes against that secondary like everyone expected him to do.
The Bills do it to the Patriots again at Foxboro as Josh Allen has his first playoff game-winning drive while Maye can’t close again.
Super Bowl 60 is a rematch from Week 17: Bills vs. Eagles but in good weather. However, the Bills’ lack of wideouts hurts them against that defense again, and the Eagles find a way to repeat despite hearing all year how their offense is garbage. But don’t sleep on that defense, and I still think Jalen Hurts has the ability to rise to the occasion with the talent around him to make some necessary plays that he didn’t really have to do last postseason. This time, he gets it done and the Eagles do in fact pull off the repeat.
I don’t love it. In fact, I’d rather see something like Texans vs. 49ers since I bet on it over a month ago, or maybe the Packers do the unthinkable and go to the Super Bowl as the first No. 7 seed after I picked them the last two years to do so.
But this is where I am. I’m also very open to the Rams getting it done by actually closing games out, which would mean getting rid of the Eagles in the divisional round and getting some revenge on Darnold for that blown 16-point lead in what was the game of the year for the regular season. Jacksonville winning this weekend would also throw a huge wrench in my vision, but if that happens, then I really do believe Lawrence can do the Eli/Flacco/Foles thing here.
We’re overdue for one of those anyway, aren’t we?
NFL Wild Card Picks
Already let the cat out of the bag with this weekend’s picks, but for spread purposes, here are my wild card picks:
- Rams 26, Panthers 20 – That spread (Rams -10.5) is too high but the Rams move on
- Packers 24, Bears 17- Snow game? Run the ball, GB.
- Bills 24, Jaguars 20 – Maybe lower scoring than expected, but I think the Bills will have more balanced offense and Lawrence will have a big pick.
- Eagles 20, 49ers 17 – Lowest scoring game of the week.
- Patriots 23, Chargers 20 – Dicker the Kicker choke incoming? Does Maye have a Tuck Rule moment in him for his first playoff game?
- Steelers 26, Texans 23 – More points than expected as Aaron Rodgers finds a way to get it done against the top defense.
This Week’s Articles
Guess I really wrote this ass-backwards this week, but here are links to my final QB rankings of 2025 (won’t be doing anymore until July), Fraud Alert Ratings for 2025 playoff teams, and about 12,000 words in full previews on every Wild Card game.