It’s about time.
The Patriots will host their first playoff game in seven years Sunday in a rematch with the Chargers, the last Gillette Stadium visitors during the postseason. The Pats are solid favorites, as should be expected for a home team led by the next potential MVP and a leading Coach of the Year candidate. But don’t underestimate the coach and quarterback on the other side.
Justin Herbert has carried the Chargers to an 11-6 record, despite playing with a broken hand and behind the NFL’s worst pass-protecting offensive line. Jim Harbaugh has molded LA into a well-rounded, physical team that doesn’t beat itself, and just clinched a playoff berth for a second consecutive season.
“It’s a physical football team,” Mike Vrabel said this week. “(The Chargers) possess the football, they lead the NFL in time of possession. They have very good quarterback play. They’re well coached. They play with technique and fundamentals. The game, it doesn’t – they don’t panic one way or the other. They kind of stick to their game plan, wear you down and execute in critical situations.”
So, who wins? Here’s what to watch for in Foxboro:
When Patriots run
Ready, set, jumbo.
Over the last four weeks, the Patriots have called almost 12 runs per game with an extra offensive lineman, and the extra beef is paying off. They’ve averaged 8.7 yards per carry and scored seven touchdowns running through these jumbo personnel packages. Rhamondre Stevenson and TreVeyon Henderson found the end zone rushing behind six offensive linemen last weekend versus Miami and are sure to get their chances against the Chargers because of how this shift has reinvigorated their shared run game.
Furthermore, Los Angeles prefers to play with five or more defensive backs, doing so on more than 80% of their snaps. If the Chargers choose to match the jumbo groupings with lighter personnel, the Pats should find steady gains to control the flow of the game. Otherwise, if LA bulks up, this should come down to explosive runs; the type the Patriots have relied on to compensate for a mostly inefficient run game and the Chargers have allowed at a rate of roughly per game.
When Patriots pass
One of Drake Maye’s greatest improvements this season has been eliminating ill-advised deep balls and decisions that unnecessarily risk turnovers; plays that dotted his tape in college and as a rookie. Maye’s growth in this area has now yielded the NFL’s most efficient passing offense. And the timing couldn’t be better against the Chargers, who boast the NFL’s best deep pass defense by DVOA.
Maye will likely be forced to live within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage, which should mean several targets for his favorite targets: Stefon Diggs, Hunter Henry, Henderson and Stevenson. Before the Chargers can double-team Diggs on third down, Maye would be best off throwing to him on first-and-10, when LA is likely to be playing basic coverage. If he’s not targeting Diggs, look for the Patriots to attack off play-action, where the zone-heavy Chargers are allowing 9.7 yards per attempt over the past two months.
Early-down efficiency should be a strong bellwether for this matchup, considering LA ranks top-5 in third-down defense and the Patriots may have trouble blocking edge rushers Khalil Mack, Tuli Tuipulotu (13.5 sacks) and Odafe Oweh (7.5 sacks) on third-and-long.
When Chargers run
The good news: the Chargers rank dead last in run-blocking at Pro Football Focus and second worst by ESPN’s run-block win rate.
The bad news: running backs Omarion Hampton and Kimani Vidal don’t need good blocking to gain yards. Hampton, a muscled-up, 221-pound rookie, has forced 32 missed tackles this year, per PFF, while Vidal is right behind him at 29. The Patriots have tackled well all year, but injuries have cracked their run defense as of late.
Will the return of inside linebacker Robert Spillane be enough to patch those cracks? Maybe. But the best solution will be to wrap up the Chargers’ running backs on first contact, and contain Herbert, who’s rushed for a career-high 498 yards this year and will be a danger to scramble all game.
When Chargers pass
In years past, it was all about Keenan Allen and only Keenan Allen. Now at 33, the six-time Pro Bowler has some company.
Like Allen, Ladd McConkey and Quentin Johnston both finished with more than 700 receiving yards this season. McConkey leads the team with 789, while Allen’s 81 catches are a team best and Johnston caught a team-high eight touchdowns. Tight end Oronde Gadsen (49 catches, 664 yards) is another favorite Herbert target, leaving the Patriots few obvious places to tilt their coverage on key downs.
Even if Vrabel trusts Christian Gonzalez and Carlton Davis to handle business outside, the Pats must affect Herbert, a master in the pocket and on extended plays. The return of Harold Landry from a two-game absence should help here, as will facing a leaky offensive line. Then again, Herbert has survived, and often thrived, all year long while facing better pass rushes.
Add it all up, and this one should come down to the wire.
Game pick
Patriots 23, Chargers 21