At the beginning of every tennis season, I make predictions for the field of eight at the year-end championship — the Nitto ATP Finals.
Now that the 2025 campaign has come and gone, it’s time to take a look back at my picks. As is the case with most years, they were all over the place. Some were right on the money, while others were way off.
Here they are:
1. Carlos Alcaraz – I nailed it with Alcaraz finishing the year at No. 1 in the world for the second time in his career. Granted, it was pretty much a 50/50 proposition heading into the season since nobody else other than Jannik Sinner had a realistic chance. And, admittedly, it would have been incorrect if not for Sinner’s three-month suspension.
2. Jannik Sinner – An Alcaraz-Sinner exacta proved to be correct. Again, though, it would have been flipped if the Italian had played a full season. Nobody else, of course, was in the same galaxy. Alcaraz and Sinner shared the four Grand Slams at two titles apiece before Sinner triumphed in Turin — albeit after his rival had already clinched the top spot.
3. Daniil Medvedev – Amazingly, this wasn’t even my worst pick! But it sure was a bad one. Medvedev picked up just a single Grand Slam victory in 2025. No…not a title. A single match. The 29-year-old Russian finally starter playing well toward the end of the season, to the extent that he could have earned a Nitto ATP Finals berth with a triumph at the Paris Masters.
4. Alexander Zverev – Zverev finished the season at No. 3 in the rankings, so only the Medvedev disaster was what prevented me from a bullseye with the German. It was pretty much the same old story for Zverev. His consistency was impressive, but another year came and went without a major title (lost to Sinner in the Australian Open final).
5. Novak Djokovic – Like Zverev, Djokovic would have been in the correct order if not for the Medvedev mistake. I had him right behind Zverev and just ahead of Taylor Fritz, which was basically right on point. When the 38-year-old Serb played against anyone other than Alcaraz and Sinner, he usually fared quite well. And if he entered more events, Djokovic would even been ahead of Zverev.
6. Taylor Fritz – This was exactly correct. I had Fritz behind Medvedev but ahead of Felix Auger-Aliassime, so that evened out and this No. 6 spot is where we find the American heading into 2026. Fritz did not make it back to a slam final this season (he finished runner-up to Sinner at the 2024 U.S. Open), but he otherwise was every bit as good as he was two years ago.
7. Stefanos Tsitsipas – Hahaha. I thought Tsitsipas’ parting ways with his dad as his coach would get the Greek going in the right direction. To say that I thought wrong would be an understatement. Of course, his coaching situation was probably the least of Tsitsipas’ problems. His backhand — among other shots — went completely off the rails en route to a year-end ranking of 34th.
8. Tommy Paul – Okay, this pick really wasn’t as bad as Paul’s No. 20 ranking would indicate. The 28-year-old American has not played since the U.S. Open and he was actually less than 100 percent physically dating all the way back to the French Open. Paul was playing great before injuries became a factor. In reality, he did well simply to finish in the top 20.
Nitto ATP Finals alternate picks
9. Holger Rune – Rune was in the running for a Turin spot (or at least to be an alternate) before he suffered a torn Achilles’ in Stockholm. Finishing just outside the Nitto ATP Finals cut line was a solid call on my part.
10. Ben Shelton – I was correctly high on Shelton going into 2025…just not high enough. The 23-year-old American qualified for Turin with relative ease, although he actually finished No. 9 after going 0-3 at the season-ending tournament.
Among the players whom I underrated in 2025 were Auger-Aliassime (No. 5), Alex de Minaur (No. 7), and Lorenzo Musetti (No. 8). I correctly predicted that Casper Ruud and Andrey Rublev would not be part of the Nitto ATP Finals discussion this year.