Saturday’s college football slate is loaded with power conference championship games that carry College Football Playoff Implications. Among them is the SEC Championship between the 11-1 Georgia Bulldogs and the 10-2 Alabama Crimson Tide, a matchup college football fans have come to know well. This heavyweight bout is set to kick off at 4:00 pm ET and will be aired on ABC.
Here are my favorite bets for the SEC Championship.
Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Georgia Bulldogs odds
Money line: Alabama +114 / Georgia -134
Spread: Alabama +2.5 (-105) / Georgia -2.5 (-115)
Total: Over 48.5 (-106) / Under 48.5 (-114)
Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Georgia Bulldogs best bet #1: Alabama +2.5 (-105)
The Bulldogs and the Crimson Tide represent 11 of the last 12 SEC champions, and four of those title games involved this exact matchup. The most recent postseason meeting between these programs was in 2023 when Alabama beat No. 1 Georgia to knock the Bulldogs out of the four-team College Football Playoff and famously catapult over Florida State. That win was orchestrated by Nick Saban, but Kalen DeBoer has carried the tradition of beating Kirby Smart — as the Tide were victorious against the Dawgs in both regular-season meetings since then. As it stands, Smart is just 1-7 SU against Alabama as Georgia’s head coach.
In a matchup between two of the nation’s best teams, you have to split hairs to find an edge. However, you don’t have to look very hard to see that Alabama has had the better defense of late. The Tide are top five in PPA per play and points allowed per quality drive over the last five weeks, have been better at generating havoc than Georgia, and own a slight edge when it comes to holding opponents out of the endzone once they have crossed the 20-yard line. When these teams met in September, Georgia was a -2.5 favorite on its home field, and Alabama proceeded to snap Georgia’s six-year home winning streak. Now, the Dawgs are laying that same number despite a change in venue. I realize Georgia is comfortable at Mercedes-Benz Stadium and is perceivably the hotter team coming in, but to list the Bulldogs at -2.5 again here suggests they would be at least -5 in a rematch in Athens. I just don’t see it that way; this line should be closer to a pick ’em.
Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Georgia Bulldogs best bet #2: Under 48.5 (-110)
In September’s meeting between these two, the total closed at 54 and the game stayed under by nine points. As such, it was the first Alabama-Georgia game in Smart’s tenure to stay under 48 combined points. Oddmakers have since adjusted the total for this upcoming game, now sitting at 48.5. I would argue it’s still not low enough.
Alabama and Georgia are very methodical in how they approach the game offensively. Both are outside the top 100 in pace of play and neither is what I would consider elite when it comes to explosivity. Don’t get me wrong — these teams are good for occasional deep balls and long runs, but most of the time they utilize short-to-medium gains to work their way down the field. That is likely to continue on Saturday given that both defenses are top 15 in limiting plays of at least 20 yards. It’s also worth mentioning that — barring something unforeseen — both of these teams are expected to be in the College Football Playoff regardless of the outcome. An SEC Championship is still a meaningful goal and should be celebrated, but these coaches know there are more games to be played to reach the ultimate goal of a national title. As such, I don’t expect either coach to put his players in harm’s way. Look for this one to be a lower-scoring, classic SEC showdown consisting of slow-moving, methodical offensive possessions and strong defense.