The College Football Playoff kicks off on Friday night with an exciting rematch between the Alabama Crimson Tide and the Oklahoma Sooners. This game will be played in Norman on Oklahoma’s campus, which should provide an absolutely raucous atmosphere under the lights when the ball flies at 8:00 pm ET on ABC.
Let’s get into my favorite bets for Friday night lights, playoff edition.
Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Oklahoma Sooners odds
Money line: Alabama +100 / Oklahoma -120
Spread: Alabama +1.5 (-115) / Oklahoma -1.5 (-105)
Total: Over 40.5 (-110) / Under 40.5 (-110)
Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Oklahoma Sooners best bet #1: Alabama ML (+100)
These teams met about a month ago and Oklahoma came away with the win in Tuscaloosa thanks to a +3 turnover advantage. The Tide outgained the Sooners 406-212, limited them to just 3-of-13 on third downs, committed just two penalties and controlled the time-of-possession battle by nine minutes. And yet the Tide lost the game because they gave the Sooners extremely favorable field position twice, leading to 10 extra Oklahoma points.
Alabama has leaked oil dating back to its comeback win at South Carolina, but I still trust the Tide offensively more than the Sooners in lieu of the three turnovers in the first matchup. After all, two of those turnovers were fumbles — one on a punt return — which are much more random than interceptions. That was also the only game in which Alabama turned the ball over more than twice, as the Tide averaged just 0.8 giveaways in FBS matchups (14th) this year. The Sooners come into this game 120th in PPA per play and 126th in success rate since Week 9, and they are the more penalized team. As good as they are defensively, they are outside the top 40 in PPA per pass, passing success rate, and passing explosiveness allowed since the end of October — which makes me think Alabama QB Ty Simpson can replicate his 326-yard performance from the first meeting.
Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Oklahoma Sooners best bet #2: Ty Simpson Over 240.5 passing yards (-114)
Speaking of Simpson, let’s lock in his passing yards prop to go over the total. As previously mentioned, he already threw for 300+ against this defense once this year — and we already know he is going to get the volume. Alabama is not great on the ground, and head coach Kalen DeBoer knows that considering the Tide are 124th in rush rate since Week 9. Simpson has seen a dip in his production since the first meeting with Oklahoma, but prior to that he surpassed this number in seven of nine games. Oklahoma’s secondary is the weakest part of its defense, and with Alabama center Parker Brailsford and tight end Josh Cuevas returning to health, Simpson should be primed to lead this offense up and down the field in Norman.