With Jannik Sinner out of the tournament, Carlos Alcaraz is now an overwhelming title favorite at the Doha ATP 500. Alcaraz will face Andrey Rublev in the semis on Friday, while Jakub Mensik meets Arthur Fils.
(1) Carlos Alcaraz vs. (5) Andrey Rublev
Alcaraz and Rublev will be squaring off for sixth time in their careers when they battle for a place in the Qatar ExxonMobil Open championship match on Friday. Rublev may be a massive underdog, but he should be encouraged by having been relatively competitive in this matchup — even though he trails the head-to-head series 4-1. Only once has the Russian lost in lopsided fashion, and he took a set in each of their two 2025 meetings (Wimbledon and Cincinnati). Rublev’s lone victory has come via a 4-6, 6-3, 6-2 decision at the 2024 Madrid Masters.
The world No. 14 did well to defeat Jesper de Jong, Fabian Marozsan, and Stefanos Tsitsipas earlier this week, but the world No. 1 on the other side of the net is a whole different proposition. Rublev is 2-13 in his last 15 matches against top-five opponents and an even more alarming 4-17 in his last 21 against the top 10. Alcaraz got a bit of a wakeup call with a 6-7(3), 6-4, 6-3 victory over Karen Khachanov on Thursday, so the reigning Australian Open champion should be ready to pick up the pace at the business end of the tournament.
Pick: Alcaraz in 2
Arthur Fils vs. (6) Jakub Mensik
There will be no Alcaraz vs. Jannik Sinner final after Mensik upset the second-ranked Italian 7-6(3), 2-6, 6-3 on Thursday. Aside from an abdominal injury that forced him out of what would have been an Australian Open fourth-round match against Novak Djokovic, the start of this season has been stellar for Mensik. The 16th-ranked Czech’s 11-2 record also features a title in Auckland.
After missing the second half of last year with a back injury, Fils is already in resurgent form. The 21-year-old Frenchman got a bad draw against eventual champion Alex de Minaur in the Rotterdam first round, but he reached the Montpellier quarters and so far in Doha has knocked off Kamil Majchrzak, Quentin Halys, and Jiri Lehecka. It’s always tough to follow up such a big result one day later, and Fils — even though he isn’t Sinner — is not an easy opponent for Mensik.
Pick: Fils in 3