An escalating war, a job now untenable and a fate that will be hard to stop

On a day of yet more statements, revelations, claims and counter-claims, the future maybe became a bit clearer

Some would say the writing was on the wall for the Ospreys when the Welsh Rugby Union granted Y11 Sports & Media a 60-day exclusivity period to complete the purchase of Cardiff Rugby.

But this afternoon’s statement from Swansea Council, which it says reveals a series of key details from a meeting between council leader Rob Stewart, WRU CEO Abi Tierney and Ospreys CEO Lance Bradley, has pushed things forward considerably.

If the claims are accurate, and the WRU and Ospreys have both issued statements alleging inaccuracies, then we now have clear sight of what the future will look like.

The fact there will be no professional men’s rugby team based in Swansea is scarcely believable. This is an area which has produced some of Wales’ greatest players from Haydn Tanner to Alun Wyn Jones. It is all difficult to fathom.

But the WRU says it cannot afford to fund four strong professional teams, while also putting significant investment into the pathway to produce the best possible players of tomorrow.

Wales have lost 21 out of their previous 23 Test matches while they have picked up back-to-back Wooden Spoons. There is a definite need for radical change.

The one thing the WRU wanted to avoid in all this was a long drawn out legal challenge. It now has two on its hands, with the Scarlets and Swansea Council set to litigate. You can read more about the Scarlets’ legal case here.

Swansea Council’s legal challenge is based on a breach of competition law and they claim the process of going down from four to three teams has not been done in a fair and transparent way.

But the WRU would surely have expected such a threat and will be prepared with a strong legal defence of their own.

It’s hard to argue against the notion the three licences should all go out to tender, with the interested parties having to apply based on a previously agreed criteria. That would be easier to swallow for many than a behind-closed-doors deal that effectively sees one disappear.

But what needs to be considered here is the fact Y11 evidently want out of the Ospreys.

Even if this legal challenge stops the WRU’s plans they would very likely need to find alternative owners. The Ospreys’ future has also had a ticking clock on it since they refused to sign up to a new Professional Rugby Agreement last year, with the old one they remain on running out next year.

Swansea Council are right to be concerned having already invested £1.5m into the redevelopment of St Helen’s and also moving Swansea Cricket Club.

There is no doubt losing the Ospreys would be a significant blow to the city. But it is difficult to see how the council can force an independent based company in Asia (Y11) to spend money on the Ospreys.

If Y11 wanted to they could shut the Ospreys overnight.

Swansea Council has requested the WRU pauses its plans to reduce the number of professional teams from four to three, but there’s no sign that is going to happen.

A potential WRU EGM to oust chairman Richard Collier-Keywood appears to be the best hope of stopping it all right now.

This could in theory lead to the whole house tumbling down and other members of the board leaving, with the hope that their replacements have a different view on the way forward. None of this can happen quickly, though, and it feels like an uphill battle with it unclear if enough clubs really have the appetite to turn up and vote it all through.

In the meantime, the Y11 deal to buy Cardiff could be completed within weeks and it is very difficult to see a way forward for the Ospreys.

If the Dragons and Scarlets sign the new 10-year licence in addition to Y11 then the changes will be irreversible.

WalesOnline understands they are poles apart when it comes to the licences, with the WRU’s demand for control of the rugby the main sticking point. But, with the WRU knowing they need this wrapped up, they are likely to compromise to get things over the line.

From an Ospreys perspective, and certainly if the council’s statement is accurate, it is difficult to see how CEO Bradley can continue.

After Swansea Council leader Stewart released a statement a fortnight ago saying it was clear from the meeting there was no “viable future” for the Ospreys in the WRU’s new structure, Bradley sent an email to all staff at the club claiming that was not true.

But with the council now claiming Bradley proposed the Ospreys potentially merge with Swansea RFC to become a semi-professional Super Rygbi Cymru outfit after the 2026/27 season, his integrity has been called into question among fans.

It’s important to state here that Bradley maintains Swansea Council have this wrong. But, whatever the exact details of what was said and how it was said or interpreted, trust appears to have gone. Players and staff at the Ospreys have apparently lost all confidence in his leadership.

Today was a significant day when we got a bit closer to finding out how this is all going to play out. The war has escalated and the lawyers are involved. But once Y11 complete the Cardiff takeover, the future of Welsh rugby, and the fate of the Ospreys, may already be decided.