True to form, the Australian Open has been brutal for underdogs. For the first time ever (fact check me, someone), there are 16 seeds remaining in the fourth round. New draw forecast:
While this makes for uneventful headlines in the opening rounds, the pay-off is that most of these fourth-rounds now carry genuine intrigue and quality. A look at the eight matches, each attached with the Tennis Insights 52-week averages for serve, return, forehand, and backhand.
Alcaraz leads the H2H 5-2 and has won the last four encounters. A clash of two of the best movers and all-court players on tour, it’s the forehand that gives Alcaraz a decisive advantage in this matchup; expect Alcaraz to bring the heat in that exchange. Paul has looked very sharp in his opening three rounds, and he will need every bit of his athleticism to hold Alcaraz’s attacks at bay, as well as impose himself in the forecourt, where his game flourishes. The American’s net points won is the one stat of his that doesn’t crater in this matchup (wins a healthy 67% against Alcaraz, and 68% against the tour). Paul’s compact backhand is capable of crush-and-rush-ing the Alcaraz second-serve (and vice versa), but I think more second serve aggression will be on display to counter.
Watch for: Alcaraz’s forehand from the middle creating problems in every possible way. Tommy goes forehand line early to get out of that trade, and he will look to come forward and mix it up.
Prediction: This has historically been a close match-up, with Paul finding ways forward and extracting errors, but Alcaraz keeps getting better in every department, and has improved even since Roland Garros. Alcaraz in 4.
Demon leads the H2H 3-2. Their last meeting was Bublik 2.0’s unveiling, with the Kazakh coming back from two sets down at Roland Garros to kickstart his amazing run of form. Since then, Bublik has blended his trademark chaos (drop shots, etc.,) with an ‘everything upgrade’ — serve, forehand, and backhand are heavier and more consistent, and mentally he is more locked in. Demon was very good against a motivated Tiafoe in round 3, shutting the American out in straight sets. In this H2H Bublik’s baseline points won % drops right off, from 49% to 42% (as you would expect). But this is a new Bublik, with a better baseline game.
Watch for: Bublik’s forehand down the line, plus his drop shot is one of the best on tour, but de Minaur plays close to the baseline and has the footspeed to shut down that tactic.
Prediction: Bublik brings plenty of attacking fire power and forecourt options, but it takes an elite player and performance to beat de Minuar on Rod Laver Arena. Demon in 5.
Cerundolo leads the H2H 3-2, with four of these matches played last year. Cerundolo’s three wins have all come on clay, but the Argentine certainly has the game and weaponry to take this. His forehand is one of the best in the game, capable of huge power, but he also possesses great touch and a drop shot from that wing, which is a key shot to use against the deeply positioned German. Cerundolo wins a dominant 56% of baseline points in this matchup, however, the shot that will decide this match is the Zverev serve. If it fires near his usual 72%, he will be tough to beat on a faster hard court.
Watch for: Cerundolo’s forehand and drop shot. Zverev’s serve-%.
Prediction: Cerundolo is equal to the task in baseline exchanges, but the difference in serve quality matters on this surface. Zverev in 4.
A rematch of last year’s five-set classic, Learner Tien arrives with a 2-1 H2H lead in a series that has been as long and brutal as you would expect between two counterpunching baseliners. Baseline points won is split at 50-50, with the most noticeable factor being second serve points won. Medvedev’s stat drops from his 50% average to 33%. Tien’s rises from 54% to 61%. Still, this is a resurgent Meddy, who was at his worst for much of last year. Tien is now a known quantity, and lately Medvedev has shown an improved first-serve and resolve.
Watch for: Tien’s forehand down-the-line is sneaky damaging. Medvedev uses his backhand from the middle of the court to go inside-out and venture forward.
Prediction: Tien had the benefit of surprise and form in last year’s encounters. I think Medvedev has the serve to give him the edge in what should be a fascinating baseline affair. Medvedev in 5.
The H2H is locked at 3-3, with Musetti’s wins all coming on natural surfaces (2x clay, 1x grass). Still, Musetti has been steadily improving on hard courts, and comes into the fourth round here off the back of a finals showing in Hong Kong (and no shame losing to Bublik there). The Italian’s backhand is more vulnerable on return, but Fritz’s lack of net craft means Musetti gets some breathing room there. Conditioning may play a factor here: Musetti came through a brutal five-setter in the heat, and Fritz is nursing knee tendonitis.
Watch for: Musetti’s forehand from the middle can spread the court. Fritz just wants to play this downhill: serve big and crush forehands, keep the backhand crosscourt.
Prediction: Musetti has played himself into a very match-tough player this week, coming through so many tough moments. That becomes a blessing if you have the legs to continue, which I think he does. Fritz hasn’t faced elite competition, and I think will be a little off his best in the big moments. Musetti in 4.
The H2H is tied at 1-1, with Mensik’s win happening in the final of the Miami Masters last year. The Czech went big on second serves in that encounter, upping his average speed by 13 mph. We can expect that again against the GOAT returner. Djokovic was also below his usual standards in that match, spraying his forehand and getting outclassed in the tiebreakers. But so far in Australia he’s been necessarily ruthless; he hasn’t dropped a set and arrives in the fourth round with only 7 hours spent on court. At 38 years old, and with eyes for a 25th major, that trend will want to continue. The forehand disparity is the biggest on the court, and you can expect Djokovic to give that wing a stern examination.
Watch for: Djokovic to use the backhand slice to bring Mensik up the court, and test out the forehand. Mensik will need to serve big and find forehands down the line to escape that crosscourt trade.
Prediction: Djokovic in 4.
Ruud leads the H2H 2-1, but they haven’t played since early 2024. Since then, Ben has established himself as a genuine slam second-weeker, and Ruud’s been on an upward trajectory the last six months, playing with more aggression and hitting the backhand better. Both have weapons, but I think this match is on Shelton’s racquet, with his serve and forehand potential. I emphasise potential, because it’s still a hot and cold shot. Ruud’s is more reliable, and I wonder if he is playing with a freedom that is hard to replicate, given his wife is due to give birth any day now.
Watch for: How well can Ben execute the serve-plus-one forehand? especially given Ruud tends to stand in and block first serves. I think Ruud will serve/play hard into the Shelton forehand initially, trying to create an opening into the Shelton running backhand. Ditto Ruud’s backhand line; if that fires he will like his chances.
Prediction: Ruud’s been impressive in his opening rounds, but Shelton has a huge engine and is an elite competitor. Shelton in 4.
Darderi is perhaps the ‘surprise’ player of the fourth-round, although he is the 22nd seed. He racked up a lot of points at the clay 250s last year, but he earned his way this week, with wins over the in form Baez, and second-week gatekeeper, Karen Khachanov. Darderi has a great forehand, he can go big off that wing when his legs are set, but his movement isn’t in the same category as Sinner’s. Sinner was lucky to survive cramps in the heat against a tough Spizzirri in round 3, and will look to resume smooth straight-sets sailing against a clay courter come Monday.
Watch for: Darderi’s serve and forehand can bring plenty of firepower. Sinner has a huge movement edge, and his backhand is more dynamic.
Prediction: Sinner in 3.
See you in the comments. HC