The ATP 500 Dallas semifinals are locked in, and we’re in for two big-serving showdowns. Taylor Fritz takes on former US Open champion Marin Cilic, while Denis Shapovalov meets Ben Shelton in a clash packed with firepower. With all four guys playing solid tennis this week, let’s break down the matchups and spot where the betting value really is.
ATP 500 Dallas semifinals
Fritz – Cilic: 14.02.2026 21:00 CEST
H2H: 2-1
Taylor Fritz has won four of his last five matches. Last season in Dallas, Fritz lost to Shapovalov in the second round in three tight sets. He is the first seed this week. In the opening round, Fritz defeated Giron in three tight sets. Nakashima stood no chance in the second round against Taylor. His toughest challenge happened in the quarterfinals against Korda. After spending almost three hours on the court, Fritz outlasted Korda in three tight sets. He was great under pressure, saving all four breakpoints.
Marin Cilic has won four of his last five matches. This week in Dallas, Cilic upset Tien in the opening round in straight sets. Even though he lost his serve twice, the Croat was great on return and closed out the match in straight sets. In the second round, Cilic defeated Quinn in straight sets. He served fifteen aces, without offering any breakpoints. In the quarterfinals, the Croat defeated Pinnington Jones in straight sets.
Best Bet to Make
According to the bookies, Cilic is the underdog in this matchup, but we disagree. He dominated in all three matches this week, without dropping a single set. With his heavy serve and current form, we expect a match that could go either way.
That being said, Cilic covering the games handicap is a value bet.
Value bet/ the best odds: Marin Cilic +2.5 games handicap @1.73 @bet365
Shapovalov – Shelton: 15.02.2026 00:00 CEST
H2H: 0-3
Denis Shapovalov has won four of his last five matches. This week in Dallas, Shapovalov won the opening match against Jodar in straight sets, losing only three games. In the second round, Shapovalov broke Kovacevic´s serve once in each set and won in straight sets. His toughest challenge came in the quarterfinals, where he turned the match around against Davidovich Fokina after losing the opening set 5-7.
Ben Shelton has won four of his last five matches. This is his third appearance in Dallas. In the opening round, Shelton defeated Diallo in straight sets. He offered and saved three breakpoints. In the second round, Shelton fought for almost three hours and defeated Mannarino in three tight sets. In the quarterfinals, Shelton defeated Kecmanovic in three sets after losing the opening set 5-7. Last season, the American lost to Munar in the second round in straight sets.
Best Bet to Make
According to the bookies, Shelton is the slight favourite in this matchup, and we agree. He leads 3-0 in head-to-head meetings against Shapovalov. After winning two tight matches, we expect him to be confident coming into this matchup.
That being said, Shelton winning is a value bet.
Value bet/ the best odds: Ben Shelton winning @1.57 @bet365
Main Photo Credit: Susan Mullane-Imagn Images