The ATP 500 Dubai final is set to bring a high-quality showdown on February 28 as the tournament reaches its climax. Daniil Medvedev faces Tallon Griekspoor in a matchup that looks more competitive than the odds suggest. Medvedev has been sharp all week, barely giving opponents any chances on his serve, while Griekspoor has powered his way through the draw with confident, aggressive tennis and impressive wins over top hard-court players. With last year’s Dubai meeting still fresh in mind and a title on the line, expect a tight battle filled with big serving, long rallies, and plenty of intensity under the lights.
ATP 500 Dubai final
Medvedev – Griekspoor: 28.02.2026 16:00 CEST
H2H: 0-1
Daniil Medvedev has won four of his last five matches. He was the champion here in 2023. This week, Medvedev defeated Shang in the opening round in straight sets. He offered and saved three breakpoints. In the second round, Medvedev demolished Wawrinka in straight sets. Although he lost his serve twice, the Russian dominated throughout the match. In the quarterfinals, Medvedev demolished Brooksby in straight sets, not offering any breakpoints.
Today in the semifinals, Medvedev won against Auger-Aliassime in straight sets. He served well, not offering any breakpoints. Last season, the Russian lost to Griekspoor in the quarterfinals.
Tallon Griekspoor has won four of his last five matches. This week in Dubai, Griekspoor won the opening round against Virtanen in straight sets. He offered no breakpoints throughout the match. In the second round, the Dutchman upset Bublik in straight sets. He offered and saved three breakpoints. In the quarterfinals, Griekspoor defeated Mensik in three tight sets. Besides losing his serve once, he dominated on his serve.
Today in the semifinals, Griekspoor defeated Rublev in two tight sets. He served well, hitting nineteen aces with only two double faults. The Dutchman also saved all six breakpoints he offered.
Best Bets to Make
Main Bet
According to the bookies, Griekspoor is the heavy underdog in this matchup, but we disagree. The Dutchman defeated Bublik, Mensik and Rublev en route to the final, all great in form hard-court players. Last season in Dubai, Griekspoor defeated Medvedev in three tight sets. We expect a close match that could go either way.
That being said, Griekspoor covering the games handicap is a value bet.
Value bet/ the best odds: Tallon Griekspoor +4.5 games handicap @1.73 @bet365
Second Bet
As previously mentioned, we expect a close match. Considering Griekspoor’s level of tennis this week in Dubai, we believe he has a decent chance at upsetting Medvedev in the final. If you love to take risks, Griekspoor winning at 5.00 odds is a value bet.
That being said, Griekspoor winning is a value bet.
Value bet/ the best odds: Tallon Griekspoor winning @5.00 @bet365
Main Photo Credit: Mike Frey-USA TODAY Sports