The ATP Masters 1000 Indian Wells 1/8-finals continue with two intriguing matchups. Rising American Tien faces Davidovich Fokina after a strong run this week, while Fonseca takes on Sinner following his impressive upset over Paul. With momentum and confidence building for the underdogs, there are some interesting value angles to consider.
ATP Masters 1000 Indian Wells 1/8-Finals
Tien – Davidovich Fokina: 10.03.2026 22:30 CEST
H2H: 0-1
Learner Tien has won four of his last five matches. This week in Indian Wells, Tien defeated Walton in two tiebreaks. In the second set, the American saved two set points. In the second round, Tien upset Shelton in three tight sets. He saved five out of six breakpoints.
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina has won three of his last five matches. This week in Indian Wells, the Spaniard won the opening match against Svajda in straight sets. Davidovich Fokina trailed 0-4 in the opening set, but turned it around. In the second set, the Spaniard dominated on his serve. In the third round, Davidovich Fokina defeated Mensik in three sets. He hopes for a solid result this week to cement his top 20 status.
Best Bet to Make
According to the bookies, this will be a 50-50 matchup, but we disagree. Last season in Washington under similar conditions, Davidovich Fokina demolished Tien in straight sets. The Spaniard dominated in both matches this week. We expect him to be a better player tonight.
That being said, Davidovich Fokina winning is a value bet.
Value bet/ the best odds: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina winning @2.10 @bet365
Fonseca – Sinner: 11.03.2026 02:00 CEST
H2H: first meeting
Joao Fonseca has won four of his last five matches. This week in Indian Wells, Fonseca defeated Collignon in the opening round in straight sets. Besides losing his serve once, the Brazilian dominated on his serve. His toughest challenge happened in the second round against Khachanov. After losing the opening set 5-6, Fonseca turned the match around. He even saved two consecutive match points in the second set tiebreak. Fonseca demolished Paul in the third round in straight sets. Last season at the Indian Wells, Fonseca lost to Draper in the second round in straight sets.
Jannik Sinner has won four of his last five matches. This week in Indian Wells, Sinner demolished Svrcina in the opening match in straight sets. He offered and saved only one breakpoint. The Italian defeated Shapovalov in the third round in straight sets. He has never made it past the semifinals here.
Best Bet to Make
According to the bookies, Fonseca is the heavy underdog in this matchup, but we disagree. Fonseca played his best tennis against Paul in the third round. After saving consecutive match points against Khachanov, Fonseca played freely in the third round. If Fonseca serves well, we expect Fonseca to keep this match tight.
That being said, Fonseca covering the games handicap is a value bet.
Value bet/ the best odds: Joao Fonseca +5.5 games handicap @1.80 @bet365
Main Photo Credit: Mike Frey-Imagn Images