The ATP Masters 1000 Indian Wells 1/64-finals continue with some intriguing matchups. Fonseca faces in-form Collignon, Cilic takes on wild card Svajda, and Tsitsipas meets Shapovalov in a clash with strong H2H history. While the odds suggest tight battles, we see value in backing proven quality and favourable matchups to come out on top in the desert.
ATP 1000 Masters Indian Wells 1/64-Finals
Fonseca – Collignon: 05.03.2026 02:00 CEST
H2H: 1-0
Joao Fonseca has lost four of his last five matches. The last match he played was in Rio de Janeiro, where he lost to Buse in the second round, three tight sets to two. Last season at the Indian Wells, Fonseca lost to Draper in the second round in straight sets.
Raphael Collignon has won seven straight matches. The last match he played was in Pau at the Challenger tournament, where he defeated Bonzi in the final in straight sets. This will be his debut campaign at the Indian Wells.
Best Bet to Make
According to the bookies, this will be an almost 50-50 matchup, but we disagree. Fonseca has struggled so far this season. However, he had several great wins last season on hard courts. Given his skill set, we expect him to be a better player tonight.
That being said, Fonseca winning is a value bet.
Value bet/ the best odds: Joao Fonseca winning @1.73 @bet365
Svajda – Cilic: 05.03.2026 03:00 CEST
H2H: 1-1
Zachary Svajda has won three of his last five matches. The last match he played was in Acapulco, where he failed to qualify for the main draw tournament. He has been granted a wild card this week at the Indian Wells.
Marin Cilic has won three of his last five matches. The last match he played was in Delray Beach, where he lost to Nakashima in the opening round in straight sets. He was the quarterfinalist here in 2016.
Best Bet to Make
According to the bookies, this will be an almost 50-50 matchup, but we disagree. Cilic is in solid form and has tons of experience playing at the Masters 1000 level. On the other hand, Svajda never succeeded at the Masters level.
That being said, Cilic winning is a value bet.
Value bet/ the best odds: Marin Cilic winning @1.73 @bet365
Tsitsipas – Shapovalov: 05.03.2026 04:30 CEST
H2H: 2-6
Stefanos Tsitsipas has lost three of his last five matches. Last week in Dubai, Tsitsipas lost to Humbert in the opening round in straight sets. Last season at the Indian Wells, Tsitsipas lost to Rune in the fourth round in straight sets.
Denis Shapovalov has won three of his last five matches. Last week in Dubai, Shapovalov was upset by Carreno-Busta in the opening round, losing in straight sets. Last season at the Indian Wells, Shapovalov lost to Alcaraz in the third round in straight sets.
Best Bet to Make
According to the bookies, this will be a 50-50 matchup, but we disagree. Shapovalov leads 6-2 in head-to-head meetings and has won all four meetings on hard courts easily. He plays too fast for Tsitsipas, and we expect him to win.
That being said, Shapovalov winning is a value bet.
Value bet/ the best odds: Denis Shapovalov winning @2.10 @bet365
Main Photo Credit: Geoff Burke-Imagn Images