In a repeat of what was one of the matches of the 2020s, Aryna Sabalenka is set to face Elena Rybakina, with the Australian Open title on the line once again. Both players enter the final in exceptional form, having dropped no sets en route.
Here is a complete tactical breakdown and preview of what to watch for, and what might unfold under the lights on Saturday.
Head-to-Head
This has been one of the most prominent matchups on tour in recent years, with the players having already faced each other fourteen times heading into Saturday’s showdown. As things stand, Sabalenka leads the overall head-to-head 8–6, including a tight three-set win in the 2023 Australian Open final.
However, in the ten meetings between the two following that Australian Open final, Rybakina has held the upper hand, winning six of those encounters, including two of the last three. With both players entering the final in great form, another closely fought battle is expected.
Tactical Breakdown
Both players are two of the cleanest and biggest hitters on tour, and more often than not, this matchup comes down to which player is striking the ball better on the day or serving at a higher level. Let’s look at the patterns and tactics both players are likely to implement on Saturday.
Aryna Sabalenka
The World No. 1 enters this match with a clear advantage in two departments. She has a more fluid and reliable forehand than Rybakina, and she is also the superior athlete in terms of court coverage and scrambling ability. These two areas represent the most logical path to victory for Sabalenka.
She needs to make this match physical, be willing to extend points when required, something she can do but has occasionally shown reluctance to, and create angles with her forehand to either pull Rybakina wide off the court or prevent her from counterpunching from a comfortable position.
Given that Rybakina arguably possesses the best serve on tour, Sabalenka must also make the most of the opportunities she gets when points on Rybakina’s serve become neutral. Those moments present the perfect chance for the two-time Australian Open champion to strike aggressively.
If she stays proactive on return and keeps Rybakina moving with her heavier, more topspin-heavy groundstrokes in this matchup, she will likely put herself in a strong position to add to her Slam tally.
Elena Rybakina
As mentioned earlier, Rybakina has the best first serve and an elite second serve on tour. She will need to structure her entire game plan around that strength, which requires her to have one of her better serving days. If the Kazakh lands over 63 percent of her first serves, a mark she failed to reach in her last two matches, she will be in an excellent position.
From the baseline, Rybakina must remain aggressive. She simply cannot allow Sabalenka to hit multiple balls from the same position, because that usually means the World No. 1 has either already won the point or is about to. Keeping Sabalenka on the run, forcing her to strike while stretched and on the move, will be key. In a simple baseline-to-baseline exchange, Sabalenka holds the shot-for-shot advantage.
One area Rybakina can clearly target is Sabalenka’s second serve. While it has improved significantly compared to earlier in her career, it can still be vulnerable under pressure. Sabalenka has also shown in the past that she can struggle in the biggest moments, particularly at Majors — highlighted by three painful losses in Slam semifinals or finals last year alone. That should encourage Rybakina to stay aggressive on second-serve returns and keep the match tight, even if Sabalenka starts strongly.
Final Insight
Ultimately, this match will come down to whether Rybakina’s serve is strong enough to remain the central pillar of her game, or whether Sabalenka succeeds in dictating the tempo of the baseline exchange.
That, in essence, is what this matchup is about: shorter points and free holds for Rybakina, or sustained baseline power and pressure from Sabalenka. Whoever controls these patterns will likely come out on top in a battle between two of the biggest hitters on tour — and two players for whom rhythm is essential in maintaining elite ball quality and executing their strategies.
Who do you think will win this rematch of the 2023 Australian Open final?
Main Photo Credit: Mike Frey-Imagn Images