The 2026 Australian Open draw ceremony was held on Thursday afternoon at Melbourne Park, where Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner are obviously the top two seeds and massive title favorites. It’s not like the draw really matters for either player, as both are overwhelmingly expected to reach the final and go head-to-head for the title. That being said, the path appears to be slightly more favorable for Alcaraz in his latest bid for a first-ever trophy Down Under.
With main-draw action beginning on Sunday, it’s time to break down the 2026 men’s singles field.
Alcaraz’s quarter
If Alcaraz runs into any trouble at all prior to the semifinals, it might come in the form of Alexander Bublik in the last eight. However, Bublik has a rough road through the first week of the tournament. The world No. 10 will kick off his fortnight against Jenson Brooksby before possibly running into Flavio Cobolli in the third round and either Alex de Minaur or Frances Tiafoe in the last 16. Speaking of De Minaur, the draw certainly did no favors for Australia’s top player. Before a possible third-round date with Tiafoe, De Minaur has to face Matteo Berrettini in round one.
Best first-round matchup — (6) Alex de Minaur vs. Matteo Berrettini
Injuries have put a significant dent in Berrettini’s career, relegating him to a current ranking of No. 56. Still, he can never be written off. The 29-year-old Italian is a former Wimbledon finalist and U.S. Open semifinalist. He also leads the head-to-head series against De Minaur 3-2 at the ATP level.
Best potential second-round matchup – (14) Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs. Reilly Opelka
Best potential third-round matchup – (10) Alexander Bublik vs. (20) Flavio Cobolli
Possible surprises – It’s hard to see anyone other than Alcaraz – or Bublik if he really gets hot – making it out of this quarter. However, the rest of the seeded contingent is largely unspectacular – so there are some opportunities for unseeded floaters to make the second week. Among the ones to watch are Brooksby (if he upsets Bublik in round one), Aleksandar Vukic, and whoever wins a first-round showdown between Reilly Opelka and Nicolai Budkov Kjaer.
Zverev’s quarter
Everyone wants to be in the Zverev quarter (with Novak Djokovic’s section being a close second option). This is the semifinal spot that is the most up for grabs, and there are a whole host of realistic contenders for it following Thursday’s draw proceedings. Chief among them is three-time Aussie Open runner-up Daniil Medvedev, who could not have asked for a better path through the bracket. Felix Auger-Aliassime, Andrey Rublev, 2025 AO breakout star Learner Tien, and former Wimbledon semifinalist Cameron Norrie are also in the mix.
Best first-round matchup — (3) Alexander Zverev vs. Gabriel Diallo
This quarter leaves more to be desired compared to the other ones (especially in the first round), but Zverev has to be put on upset alert right away. Diallo brings a huge game to the table – one that has him on the brink of the top 40 and carried him to the third round of the 2024 U.S. Open as a qualifier (lost to Tommy Paul in a fourth-set tiebreaker).
Best potential second-round matchup – (13) Andrey Rublev vs. Arthur Cazaux
Best potential third-round matchup – (7) Felix Auger-Aliassime vs. (25) Learner Tien
Possible surprises — Have we gotten to the point where Medvedev making the semis of a major is a surprise? Maybe not. Well…definitely not based on where he is in the draw. Still, it would be a much-needed result for the 29-year-old Russian after he won just a single match across all four Grand Slams last season. If you want to take a deeper dive into the pool, consider backing Tien or even Rublev to finally get over the slam quarterfinal hump – especially if Zverev gets bounced early (by Diallo, for example).
Djokovic’s quarter
This section is riddled with question marks, so just about anything could happen. Djokovic’s status is once again uncertain following his recent withdrawal from Adelaide, Lorenzo Musetti pulled out of a Kooyong Classic match due to hip pain, Taylor Fritz is dealing with knee tendonitis, and Jiri Lehecka retired in the Brisbane second round with an ankle injury. Grigor Dimitrov, Tomas Machac, Hubert Hurkacz, Stan Wawrinka, and 2025 quarterfinalist Lorenzo Sonego are among the unseeded contingent looking to capitalize on a huge opportunity.
Best first-round matchup — Grigor Dimitrov vs. Tomas Machac
When healthy, both of these guys are top-10 material. Dimitrov almost certainly still would be if he had not gotten hurt last summer at Wimbledon (while leading Sinner two sets to love, in fact!). Machac won their only previous meeting in a tight three-setter (Vienna 2024) and another fun one should be in the cards.
Best potential second-round matchup – (23) Tallon Griekspoor vs. Hubert Hurkacz
Best potential third-round matchup – (5) Lorenzo Musetti vs. (31) Stefanos Tsitsipas
Possible surprises — Things could get quite crazy in this section of the bracket. You have to think several unseeded players will be in the third round, a couple in the fourth round, and maybe one in the quarters or even the semis. Hurkacz looked like his former self while leading Poland to the United Cup title, so he will probably end up being Djokovic’s fourth-round opponent. Whoever wins the Dimitrov-Machac battle could also go a long, long way.
Sinner’s quarter
Tennis fans are already getting their popcorn ready for a potential third-round matchup between Sinner and Joao Fonseca. Would it be competitive? Probably not. But it would at last make a ton of headlines. Fonseca, though, won’t be looking past a first-round encounter with Eliot Spizzirri. They faced each other in the final round of 2024 U.S. Open qualifying, when Spizzirri prevailed in a thrilling three-setter. Ben Shelton is expected to be Sinner’s quarterfinal foe, but the eighth-ranked American has to face Ugo Humbert in round one and possibly Gael Monfils immediately thereafter.
Best first-round matchup — (8) Ben Shelton vs. Ugo Humbert
At No. 36 in the world, Humbert is one of the highest-ranked unseeded guys in the field. He is a former world No. 13, too. The good news for Shelton is that he has a decent record against fellow left-handers and he almost always thrives at Grand Slams. He simply loves the big stage.
Best potential second-round matchup – (12) Casper Ruud vs. Jaume Munar
Best potential third-round matchup – (2) Jannik Sinner vs. (28) Joao Fonseca
Possible surprises — Sinner will almost certainly cost through this section, but there are three particularly dangerous unseeded players who could make some serious noise. They are all in different parts of this quarter and all far away from Sinner, so there are second-week opportunities. If Humbert upsets Shelton, he could go all the way to the quarterfinals. Marin Cilic – a former Grand Slam champion – and Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard can be nightmares to play against. Both of them have fantastic draws through the first few rounds.
Check out the Australian Open draw at the tournament website