Tour-wide there has been something of a trend for hard courts to play “medium-fast”. Two-year averages from courtspeed.com place all the hardcourt masters within that range, and the Australian Open is similar, perhaps being more on the faster side. As an outdoor tournament, the weather is often the biggest adjustment players have to be ready for, with cooler evening conditions having a noticeable slowing effect— an important point to keep in mind, given that the back-end of the tournament is played in the evening.
Some player quotes from 2024/2025:
“The conditions are fast, and I like that! It suits my game. I’ve acclimated well, even with the heat, including two days of 38-39 degrees.”
— Ugo Humbert, 2025
“This court plays really slow at night and the kick serve doesn’t really work as well.“
— Nick Kyrgios, 2024
“Hot afternoons here are also often windy afternoons, and that creates difficult situations for both players. It changes things a lot for sure. There’s one side where you feel like you can dictate, you have the wind at your back. You get a lot of extra power on the ball. It’s just easier to be offensive and hurt the person. Then on the other side it’s so much harder to attack. You feel like it’s so easy for the other person to hurt you off your shots.”
— Taylor Fritz, 2024
I’m using the draw from bracket.tennis for this edition of the Australian Open. It’s made by Barron Webster, and he’s been upgrading it with new features all the time. I feel like tennis draws are stuck in the middle ages, and this one allows you to hover over matchups and check recent form and head-to-heads:
Plus, you can fill out your own draw and compete against others. There’s no $10 million on the line, like the AO competition (where A Thread of Order will also give you $10 million should you successfully guess every single match of the tournament).
“Good luck”.
And for the delusional hopefuls of the $10 million, remember that the Australian Open is traditionally one of the worst for underdogs. My guess is that seeded players usually arrive with some fitness training under the belt and less wear-and-tear on the body, as that would explain the US Open’s historically inverse results of being upset-friendly late in the season:
Alright, let’s do it.
Quarterfinal Prediction: Alcaraz def. de Minaur.
There is daylight between Alcaraz and the other seeds, in terms of level and groundstroke firepower. This section could make for some entertaining third-round matches between seeds, but ultimately Alcaraz and de Minaur have been the most consistent first-week slam players of this seeded group in recent times, and I think they do it again here. All the others wouldn’t be shocking if they lost early.
Early Upsets: There were a couple of matches that tempted me here, but none that got me feeling good. A couple of “maybe’s”, Brooksby more than anyone. I think Bublik won’t like playing Brooksby, and the American is excellent at getting under your skin, but Bublik is peaking right now and has a massive serving edge. Arthur Fery could also give Cobolli a scare, ditto Kovacevic for Paul, but I think Paul and Cobolli’s overall athleticism and quality will get them through.
Quality Qualifier: Arthur Fery was a Stanford college standout and loves quick, low bouncing conditions. Elite compact backhand.
Dark Horses: From the top half keep an eye on Next Gen Finals player Budkov Kjaer. He’s got a great forehand, wins under the belt, and will like his chances in a coin-toss against Opelka. From the bottom section, Jenson Brooksby is a top-30 talent, but his quirky counterpunching game is looking increasingly anachronistic.
Round 1 Match: Berrettini vs de Minaur. I don’t think the Italian has the form to take out Demon here in Australia, but if the serve and forehand are firing he will be dangerous.
Almost went with… Bublik. He’s won a bucketload of matches and doesn’t really have that much pressure with no points to defend.
Toughest Draw? de Minaur. He has Berrettini, Medjedovic, Tiafoe. All aggressive and talented players who can take the racquet out of your hand, but the Demon is locked in and will take care of business with the Aussie support.
Getting ahead of myself: There’s so many compelling possible third rounds here. Paul vs Fokina would be a fun watch. Two elite movers with under-powered forehands and all-court skill. Ditto Tiafoe vs de Minaur. Ditto Ditto Bublik and Cobolli!
Quarterfinal Prediction: Medvedev def. Zverev.
I think Meddy has the best Round 1-3 draw of this group. Zverev and FAA both have tricky openers. I think Medvedev is on an upward trend with fresh coaches, recent titles, better serving, and more net play. He’s done very well here in the past and has a favourable H2H against both FAA and Zverev.
Early Upsets: Zhang def. Cerundolo. Marozsan def. Rinderknech. Borges would have been a pick for me six months ago, but I think FAA has tightened the backhand and is well prepared here. Diallo is also tempting against Zverev.
Quality Qualifier:
Dark Horses: Zhizhen Zhang is such a talented ball-striker, but injuries have made it hard for him to gain form. I think he might get the better of Cerundolo in the opener, and has a decent draw. From the bottom section I like Marcos Giron. The American has quietly racked up some wins in Hong Kong and Auckland, and is very familiar with fellow SoCal player Learner Tien’s game. He’s an experienced campaigner who I think will like playing another flat hitter without huge power.
Round 1 Match: Giron vs Tien/Borges vs FAA
Almost went with… FAA. I think the Canadian is ready to be a more consistent threat this year, but has a tough opener and section. Borges and Tien early on are great players who have done well here.
Toughest Draw? FAA.
Getting ahead of myself: FAA vs Tien would be an exciting and contrasting affair. Power vs precision. Zverev leads Norrie 6-0, but their two most recent matches have been very close, and more players are starting to slice and drop shot Zverev as a general play to bring him in on unfavourable terms.
Quarterfinal Prediction: Djokovic def. Tsitsipas
Tsitsipas you say!? Yeah I don’t know either. More feeling than anything. I think he has a soft opener and both Machac and Grigor may be fitness question marks. Should the Greek meet Musetti in round 3 I think that’s a good matchup for Stef; Musetti can’t attack the backhand as relentlessly with his serve or own backhand as well as most of the tour. And Stef is traditionally quite good against slice, and he has an excellent record here. And he’s back to a more powerful Aero-ish frame. And Fritz’s fitness isn’t promising. I see tailwinds. You heard it here first, folks. Then there’s Novak. “Djokovic hurt his neck in practice” “Djokovic pulled out of Adelaide” “Djokovic is nearly 39”….It’s all noise. Djokovic smoked Francis in that exo and looked great and he’s going to be fine. Everything is still elite when he’s motivated.
Early Upsets: Quinn def. Griekspoor.
Quality Qualifier: The two quality qualifiers square off in Round 1! Rafael Jodar has been on a tear the past few months. Rei Sakamoto was the 2024 Junior Boys Champion here and breezed through qualifying. The winner will likely face Mensik and will be a stern test. I picked Jodar based on his power and sheer number of wins.
Dark Horses: Jodar/Sakamoto, and of course Hubi. From the top section Dimitrov and Machac need no introduction.
Round 1 Match: Dimitrov vs Machac. Jodar vs Sakamoto. Shang vs RBA. Wawrinka vs Djere. Hurkacz vs Bergz. Ticket holders for this day will enjoy the outer courts.
Almost went with… Musetti. Career-wise he is in great form and coming off the back of another 250 final in Honk Kong, but he’s carrying a little injury concern, and hard courts are not his best surface.
Toughest Draw? Nakashima or Tsitsipas.
Getting ahead of myself: Djokovic vs Shang would be exciting. Shang has a huge forehand and is a great mover. Musetti vs Tsitsipas would be a rare one-handed battle.
Quarterfinal Prediction: Sinner def. Humbert
Sinner has a great draw and is the two-time defending champion. He looked sharp in his exo with FAA yesterday too. I think this section is a huge opportunity for one of Shelton/Humbert/Ruud/Shapovalov. Vacherot will be seeded all year but he isn’t a top-32 player in my eyes. Humbert is great on quick hard and had a good run in Adelaide, and he has the game to rush Shelton off the ground.
Early Upsets: Humbert def. Shelton. Michelsen def. Khachanov. Damm Jr def. Vacherot.
Quality Qualifier: Basavareddy survived a third-set super tie-breaker in qualifying, coming back from 7-1 down. Martin Damm Jr has been racking up wins on the US Challenger run late last year and has a big lefty game.
Dark Horses: Martin Damm Jr and Alex Michelsen. Should probably also mention Munar.
Round 1 Match: Shelton vs Humbert. Sweeny vs Monfils. Sweeny is from my high school and is a prolific hustler of the tennis ball. Should be some fun movement points against Gael.
Almost went with… Shelton. If he gets through that opener he’s shown how good he is at taking advantage of a draw.
Toughest Draw? None stands out.
Getting ahead of myself: I don’t have it picked, but Sinner vs Fonseca would be a pinned “first of many” you would imagine. The Brazilian youngster is a question mark with a back injury. Shapovalov vs Ruud for a 2020 throwback.
I’ve got Alcaraz over Medvedev in three sets. I think Alcaraz has too many options and firepower mixed with more experienced discipline to be troubled by even a resurgent Medvedev here. The forehand is ridiculous when given time, and he will get plenty of looks against Meddy’s ball.
Sinner over Djokovic in three sets. We’ve seen this play out before. Djokovic’s gas tank running on empty after 60 minutes at Sincaraz intensity by the time semifinals roll around. I think it’s too hard of a task at 38 with the speed these two guys play at.
In the final I’ve got Sinner over Alcaraz in five sets. I think this is a conditions tie-breaker. If it was a day final I would pick Alcaraz, but it isn’t and never will be (again). That cooler evening ball is going to sit in that hip-strike zone just a little better for the Italian.
Looking forward to it. I’ll see you in the comments. HC