While college sports fans will probably prefer the Championship Game, there will be no escaping the Super Bowl over the coming weeks. While it’s one of the world’s biggest sporting events, it’s also massive from a wagering perspective. An estimated $1.39 billion was wagered on Super Bowl LIX last year, and that was just in the US.
The latest Super Bowl odds favor the Seahawks over the Patriots, but there are certain betting strategies and pitfalls that can be applied universally to all big games like this one. So, whoever you back, consider some of these dos and don’ts before you decide to place a bet:
Don’t Get Hung Up on Precedence
Fans love narratives, even negative ones. So, in the lead-up to big games, you’ll often hear statements like “Mike McDonald has never coached a big game”. Sometimes, these factors can count – or at least seem like they do in hindsight – but droughts end and records tumble. You need to approach the game, not the event or what it means for the record books.
Do Consult the Statistics
The 2025 NFL season was a topsy-turvy one, full of shocks and strange results. But within those crazy results and performances, the dust always settles on readable statistics that can tell you a lot about how teams and players will complement each other offensively and defensively. You might even consider using AI to run some numbers for you, although we would say to be skeptical about AI predictions without human input.
Don’t Get Sucked Into ‘Silly’ Props Bets
The Super Bowl is the world’s biggest single betting event. As such, sportsbooks will provide more markets than a typical football game. Often, these are prop bets that have no relation to the game’s outcome and can’t be measured by stats. Stuff like how long the halftime show will go on, or which team wins the coin toss rely on blind luck, and they should be avoided unless you have some hidden insight. As an aside, the coin toss has been tails 31 times and heads 28 times in Super Bowl history – that has no bearing on the next outcome.
Do Look Beyond the Moneyline
While we stated to avoid silly props bets, there are plenty of interesting markets that can perhaps offer value and match your betting style. Looking at the spread, for instance, can be beneficial if you believe it will be a tight game. You should also look at those props that are measurable by statistics (targets, rush attempts, receptions, etc.) and try to find value between your analysis and the odds offered. If it doesn’t seem like value (book edge), then look elsewhere.
Don’t Deviate Too Much From the Plan
Live betting on the Super Bowl is massive, and it’s likely that bettors will react as the game ebbs and flows. Reacting to momentum is fine, but it should not deviate from the plan. Plenty of NFL games across the 2025 season were defined by late-game comebacks, and the Super Bowl is often no different. There have been several double-digit comebacks in recent Super Bowl history (Patrick Mahomes oversaw three alone). There’s nothing wrong with cutting your losses with a cash-out or adjustment, but remember that it’s a long game.
Do Think Outside the Box
We will finish with a tip that Super Bowl bettors often attempt to use to their advantage: avoiding picking the Super Bowl winner and backing the MVP instead. Why? Because it is likely to be the winning quarterback. So, the logic goes, if you like the Seahawks to win, back Sam Darnold for the Super Bowl MVP at higher odds. It doesn’t always come off, but it has in five of the last six seasons. It’s just an example of thinking outside the box, which can be applied to all sports betting.
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