The 2026 Miami Open is on the cusp of getting underway in Florida, with 96 hopefuls contending for the year’s second Masters 1000 title on the ATP Tour. I’ve poured over the latest betting markets and match ups to deliver a handful of betting tips ahead of the first ball. For a look at Miami’s dark horses and value bets in the men’s event, read on.
Miami Open men’s odds and favorites
Here’s what tennis bookmakers have to say about the title favorites in Miami in their outright betting odds market:
2026 Miami ATP betting odds
- Jannik Sinner – 2.20 (+120)
- Carlos Alcaraz – 2.40 (+140)
- Daniil Medvedev – 15.00 (+1400)
- Alexander Zverev – 23.00 (+2200)
- Ben Shelton – 34.00 (+3300)
- Jack Draper – 41.00 (+4000)
- Alex de Minaur – 41.00 (+4000)
- Taylor Fritz – 41.00 (+4000)
- Felix Auger-Aliassime – 41.00 (+4000)
Unsurprisingly, Sinner and Alcaraz dominate the market heading into Miami. As I highlighted in my draw preview, one of these two have won in 21 of the last 22 times they’ve both played. That’s why bookies have them miles ahead of the rest of the field, with Sinner marginally in front of Alcaraz thanks to recent form and surface.
Medvedev – who made the Indian Wells final, beating Alcaraz – is the closest to these two in the outright betting odds, though the Russian is a long was back at 15.00 (+1400). Zverev and Shelton are seen as the next best title contenders, before a glut of others in Draper, de Minaur, Fritz and Auger-Aliassime all share sixth-equal odds to win.
Odds from the ATP Miami from below recommended sportsbooks:
Top dark horses for Men’s Miami Open 2026
Outside of the players highlighted above, who else has the potential to make a run as a dark horse in Miami? Here’s who I’m keeping an eye on:
- Hubert Hurkacz
- Learner Tien
- Joao Fonseca
- Francisco Cerundolo
Hubert Hurkacz @ 201.00 (+20000)
Hurkacz began 2026 brilliantly, winning five of his first six matches across the United Cup and Australian Open, despite having only recently returned from injury. Since then, things haven’t been so flash: six losses on the bounce, including in round one of a Challenger last week.
On the bright side, this pumps up Hurkacz’s odds coming into Miami, an event where he’s previously tasted success. The Pole is 15-4 lifetime at this tournament, having lifted the trophy in 2021 and made the semi-finals in 2022. These conditions suit him, as his serve skips through on the fast surface while his flat backhand is hard to deal with.
He’s far from a lock for the title, but with his kind of pedigree, he’s not going to stay losing for long. Where better for him to snap back into form than Miami.
Learner Tien @ 101.00 (+10000)
The weather in Miami is looking like it’ll be a big factor this year. Lots of rain around, which will fluff up the balls and make rallies more attritional than they typically are. Combine this with the Florida heat, and it takes a physical player to go deep here.
Learner Tien is that guy.
He’s consistently proven himself to be a force on hardcourts over the past 15 months, tipping over the likes of Medvedev, Zverev, Shelton, Musetti and Rublev in this span. Throw in conditions that suit him, plus the confidence of a run to the Indian Wells quarters last week, and a price of 101.00 (+10000) feels too long for the American.
Joao Fonseca @ 67.00 (+6600)
I ummed and ahhed about making Fonseca a dark horse in Miami, for two reasons: 1) he’s got Alcaraz in the second round, and 2) he’s barely a dark horse these days – everyone knows the name.
Still, I believe there’s a non-zero chance that this is the tournament where he has his first big, big run. Think about it: he just ripped through two top-25 opponents in Indian Wells then played out of his skin against Sinner. He was already the kind of guy that oozed belief, but I reckon this will have taken his confidence to another level. Instead of it being, “I can beat those guys in the future,” it’s now, “I can beat those guys, NOW.”
Getting Alcaraz early is a blessing in disguise. Fonseca gets one match to acclimatize, while Alcaraz doesn’t. The Miami crowd will be absolutely fizzing, and as we saw in California, the Brazilian plays big matches well.
Tip over Alcaraz and the draw opens up. Nadal, Djokovic, Federer – they all had their big breakthroughs as teens. Fonseca is already known, but this could be the moment he really makes his mark.
Francisco Cerundolo @ 151.00 (+15000)
Another South American with the potential to catch on fire in Miami is Cerundolo. The Argentinian – known for being mercurial – has shown remarkable consistency at this event with quarters-or-better runs in three of the last four editions.
He’s never lost to a player ranked lower than No 16 on these courts, and has five top-20 wins here, including over the likes of Sinner, Casper Ruud, Tommy Paul and Auger-Aliassime.
Should his forehand start firing and the crowd get behind him, Cerundolo is the kind of player that can slay giants in Miami.
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Betting tips and value bets for ATP Miami 2026:
Bit shy to take an outright swing on one of these dark horses? Fair enough – here are a few other value bets I’ve sniffed out over the coming 12 days:
- Quarter two winner – Arthur Fils @ 6.50 (+550)
Fils is still heavily underpriced by most tennis betting sites after returning from injury last month. The Frenchman has the game to thrive in these conditions and has won seven of his last nine matches, including good wins over Auger-Aliassime, Jakub Mensik and Jiri Lehecka and a quarter-final run in Indian Wells.
But more than that, Fils is in a quarter of opportunity in Miami. His high seeds are all vulnerable – Lorenzo Musetti, De Minaur and Alexander Bublik. For Fils to win his quarter, he won’t even have to beat any of the top five title favorites. Taking out De Minaur in the third round will be his biggest challenge, but considering he’s beaten the Australian in the past, I like his price of 6.50 (+550) to go one match further than he did here last year.
- Quarter three winner – Zverev @ 4.33 (+333)
I’m surprised to see Zverev at odds as long as 4.33 (+333) to win his quarter, considering the German is a past finalist at this event and comes to Miami off the back of a semi-final run in Indian Wells which took him to 11-4 on the year. These odds are in response to Medvedev’s form, who is Zverev’s main rival in quarter three.
I expect the Russian to hit a banana skin this week though – slow, fluffy balls aren’t his forte – opening up the path for Zverev to win the quarter. He matches up great against Shelton, the other big seed in this section, having beaten him in all five of their meetings.
- Alcaraz stage of elimination – second round @ 7.00 (+600)
This bet furthers the argument above about Fonseca potentially having a big breakout in Miami, but grabs a higher price on the match before it’s set. The Brazilian needs to beat Fabian Marozsan to make the second round, so buying an Alcaraz loss now gets odds of 7.00 (+600), compared to what would be much lower odds if you were betting on the match itself.
Check also our betting tips for the women’s WTA Miami Open.