Thanks for following along this season and during another entertaining Championship Week.
The projections below are based on all games played through March 15th, 2026. Following the bracket, I included my First Four Out. I won’t completely rule out Auburn or Oklahoma making the field, but anyone else would be pretty shocking.
Here’s a quick refresher about how the NCAA selection committee classifies wins based on the NET rating:
· Quad 1: Home vs. teams ranked 1-30 / Neutral vs. teams ranked 1-50 / Road vs. teams ranked 1-75
· Quad 2: Home vs. teams ranked 31-75 / Neutral vs. teams ranked 51-100 / Road vs. teams ranked 76-135
· Quad 3: Home vs. teams ranked 76-160 / Neutral vs. teams ranked 101-200 / Road vs. teams ranked 136-240
· Quad 4: Home vs. teams ranked 161-365 / Neutral vs. teams ranked 201-365 / Road vs. teams ranked 241-365
| WASHINGTON, DC (EAST) | CHICAGO (MIDWEST) | |
| Greenville – March 19/21 | Buffalo – March 19/21 | |
| 1) Duke* | 1) Michigan | |
| 16) Lehigh* / Prairie View* | 16) Queens* | |
| 8) TCU |
8) Georgia | |
| 9) Villanova | 9) UCF | |
| Portland – March 19/21 | Tampa – March 20/22 | |
| 5) Wisconsin |
5) St. John’s* | |
| 12) Northern Iowa* | 12) McNeese* |
|
| 4) Kansas | 4) Vanderbilt | |
| 13) Cal Baptist* | 13) North Dakota St.* | |
| St. Louis – March 20/22 | Oklahoma City – March 19/21 | |
| 6) North Carolina | 6) Louisville | |
| 11) Miami (OH) / Texas | 11) South Florida* | |
| 3) Illinois | 3) Nebraska | |
| 14) Penn* | 14) Wright St.* | |
| Philadelphia – March 20/22 | St. Louis – March 20/22 | |
| 7) Miami (FL) | 7) Kentucky | |
| 10) Saint Louis | 10) NC State | |
| 2) Connecticut | 2) Iowa St. | |
| 15) Furman* |
15) Tennessee St.* | |
| HOUSTON (SOUTH) | SAN JOSE (WEST) | |
| Tampa – March 20/22 | San Diego – March 20/22 | |
| 1) Florida | 1) Arizona* | |
| 16) Long Island* / Howard* |
16) UMBC* | |
| 8) Utah St.* | 8) Saint Mary’s | |
| 9) Ohio St. | 9) Iowa | |
| Philadelphia – March 20/22 | San Diego – March 20/22 | |
| 5) Arkansas* | 5) Texas Tech | |
| 12) Akron* | 12) High Point* | |
| 4) Virginia | 4) Alabama | |
| 13) Hofstra* | 13) Hawaii* | |
| Greenville – March 19/21 | Portland – March 19/21 | |
| 6) Tennessee | 6) BYU | |
| 11) VCU* |
11) Missouri / SMU | |
| 3) Purdue* | 3) Gonzaga* | |
| 14) Troy* | 14) Kennesaw St.* | |
| Oklahoma City – March 19/21 | Buffalo – March 19/21 | |
| 7) UCLA | 7) Clemson | |
| 10) Santa Clara | 10) Texas A&M | |
| 2) Houston | 2) Michigan St. | |
| 15) Idaho* | 15) Siena* |
First Four Out:
Auburn
Oklahoma
San Diego State
Indiana
Conference Breakdown:
SEC (10): Alabama, Arkansas*, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Missouri, Tennessee, Texas, Texas A&M, Vanderbilt
Big Ten (9): Illinois, Iowa, Michigan, Michigan State, Nebraska, Ohio State, Purdue*, UCLA, Wisconsin
ACC (8): Clemson, Duke*, Louisville, Miami (FL), NC State, North Carolina, SMU, Virginia
Big 12 (8): Arizona*, BYU, Houston, Iowa St., Kansas, TCU, Texas Tech, UCF
Big East (3): Connecticut, St. John’s*, Villanova
West Coast (3): Gonzaga*, Saint Mary’s, Santa Clara
Atlantic 10 (2): Saint Louis, VCU*
MAC (2): Akron*, Miami (OH)
Mountain West: Utah State*
American: South Florida*
America East: UMBC*
Atlantic Sun: Queens*
Big Sky: Idaho*
Big South: High Point*
Big West: Hawaii*
Coastal: Hofstra*
Conference USA: Kennesaw State*
Horizon: Wright State*
Ivy: Penn*
MAAC: Siena*
MEAC: Howard*
Missouri Valley: Northern Iowa*
Northeast: Long Island*
Ohio Valley: Tennessee State*
Patriot: Lehigh*
Southern: Furman*
Southland: McNeese*
SWAC: Prairie View A&M*
Summit: North Dakota State*
Sun Belt: Troy*
WAC: Cal Baptist*
* Earned Automatic Bid
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See More: Bracketology