Alright, here we go. The NCAA will officially unveil its bracket on ESPN-U today at 3 p.m., and with it, the final word on a season that has been anything but predictable.
Let’s dig into the final projection, and there are some interesting things that the committee might have to consider.
First, the final NPI:
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Michigan [AQ]
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North Dakota
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Michigan State
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Western Michigan
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Denver [AQ]
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Dartmouth [AQ]
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Providence
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Minnesota Duluth
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Penn State
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Quinnipiac
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Cornell
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Wisconsin
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Minnesota State [AQ]
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Connecticut
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Merrimack [AQ]
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Bentley [AQ]
On paper, a straight serpentine bracket would slot teams accordingly.
The conventional approach places No. 1 seeds closest to home. But this bracket has a wrinkle, and it starts with Denver.
As a host in Loveland, Denver is locked into that regional. That has a ripple effect, particularly on Michigan State and Western Michigan. Both are No. 1 seeds, and both are headed on the road regardless. Their placement likely hinged on Denver.
Albany, N.Y.
(1) Michigan vs. (16) Bentley
(8) Minnesota Duluth vs. (9) Penn State
Worcester, Mass.
(3) Michigan State vs. (14) UConn
(6) Dartmouth vs. (11) Cornell
Sioux Falls, S.D.
(2) North Dakota vs. (15) Merrimack
(7) Providence vs. (10) Quinnipiac
Loveland, Colo.
(4) Western Michigan vs. (13) Minnesota State
(5) Denver vs. (12) Wisconsin
Here are the things we need to fix with this bracket:
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Dartmouth vs. Cornell is an intra-conference matchup in the first round.
That’s it, at least from a procedural standpoint. To fix that, the committee has to put Cornell somewhere else. History suggests that they would move Wisconsin to Worcester, and Cornell to Loveland.
So based on historical precedent, my final bracket projection looks like this:
Albany, N.Y.
(1) Michigan vs. (16) Bentley
(8) Minnesota Duluth vs. (9) Penn State
Worcester, Mass.
(3) Michigan State vs. (14) UConn
(6) Dartmouth vs. (12) Wisconsin
Sioux Falls, S.D.
(2) North Dakota vs. (15) Merrimack
(7) Providence vs. (10) Quinnipiac
Loveland, Colo.
(4) Western Michigan vs. (13) Minnesota State
(5) Denver vs. (11) Cornell
I want to reiterate that my final projection is what’s listed above. That projection is grounded in the committee’s recent history and how it has handled similar dilemmas in the past.
But there are a few variables worth considering.
First, you have three Eastern teams slotted into Loveland. That doesn’t make a ton of sense on the surface.
Second, with the increased emphasis on improving the atmosphere at these regionals, does the committee finally deviate from precedent and prioritize attendance?
It’s possible that Minnesota Duluth and Providence flip, which would send the Friars to Albany and UMD to Sioux Falls.
There has also been a push to separate Western Michigan and Denver. As I wrote last week, the committee has no history of doing things like that in the 16-team bracket — even if there’s a reasonable argument that it should — so it would represent a departure from past practice.
Then there’s the chatter surrounding UConn and Merrimack. Some fans will ask, “Wait, Merrimack just beat UConn for the Hockey East championship and now they have to travel to Sioux Falls while UConn stays in Worcester?”
If history is any guide, the answer is yes.
The committee doesn’t make placement decisions based on a single game. It leans on the NPI — or previously, the Pairwise — to evaluate the full body of work.
Which brings us to the biggest unknown, at least from where I sit. You can study precedent all you want, but this is the first year of the NPI. Will the committee adhere as strictly to a 1–16 serpentine as it did with the Pairwise for the better part of two decades?
I’m confident in the bracket as projected. But I’d leave the door slightly ajar for some chaos — whether driven by the transition to the NPI or a renewed push to maximize attendance and quiet the growing calls for on-campus regionals.
Because make no mistake: the NCAA wants to keep these regionals at neutral sites, at least for now. The next cycle of sites has already been put out to bid, so change isn’t imminent. If the committee wants to validate that model, filling buildings would be a good place to start.
So again, my official bracket projection is above.
But if you’re in the mood to get a little creative, here’s the “throw everything out the window and embrace the chaos” version:
Albany, N.Y.
(1) Michigan vs. (16) Bentley
(7) Providence vs. (10) Quinnipiac
Worcester, Mass.
(3) Michigan State vs. (15) Merrimack
(6) Dartmouth vs. (9) Penn State
Sioux Falls, S.D.
(2) North Dakota vs. (14) UConn
(8) Minnesota Duluth vs. (12) Wisconsin
Loveland, Colo.
(4) Western Michigan vs. (13) Minnesota State
(5) Denver vs. (11) Cornell