Broncos vs. Chiefs prediction, odds, pick for Week 17 Christmas Day game

We’re back with a betting prediction and pick for Christmas night matchup as the Denver Broncos (12-3) take on the Kansas City Chiefs (6-9). We will examine the upcoming odds and make a Broncos-Chiefs prediction.

The Broncos are first in the AFC West, but they are coming off a 34-20 loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars. That defeat ended a remarkable 11-game Denver winning streak. The Broncos are a huge road favorite over the Chiefs.

The Chiefs are in third place in the AFC West, and they suffered a 26-9 defeat to the lowly Tennessee Titans in Week 16. The Chiefs have suffered a remarkable fall from grace this season and they will miss the playoffs for the first time since the 2014 season.

NFL Betting Odds courtesy of DraftKings

Broncos vs. Chiefs Odds

Denver Broncos: -13.5 (-108)

Kansas City Chiefs: +13.5 (-112)

Over: 36.5 (-108)

Under: 36.5 (-112)

Broncos vs. Chiefs Key Injuries 

Broncos:WR Pat Bryant (concussion) questionable, C Luke Wattenberg (shoulder) questionable, TE Nate Adkins (knee) questionable, LB Dre Greenlaw (hamstring) questionable, S Delarrin Turner-Yell (knee) questionable.

Chiefs: WR Rashee Rice (concussion) questionable, WR Tyquan Thornton (concussion) questionable, RT Jaylon Moore (knee) questionable, CB Trent McDuffie (knee) questionable, DT Derrick Nnadi (illness) questionable, CB Jaylen Watson (groin) questionable, QB Patrick Mahomes (knee) out, QB Gardner Minshew (knee) out.

Broncos vs. Chiefs Betting Trends

• The Chiefs are 5-9-1 ATS and the Broncos are 6-8-1 ATS.
• The Chiefs are 4-4 ATS in home games
• Even though the Broncos are 5-2 straight up on the road, they are just 2-5 ATS in those games
• The Broncos are 0-4 ATS as road favorites
• The Chiefs are 1-1 as home underdogs
• The Chiefs have been a dominant “under” team this season, going under posted total 11 out of 15 games. They have gone under the total in 7 of 8 home games.
• The Broncos have gone under the posted total in 8 of 15 games.

Keys to Broncos vs. Chiefs Matchup

This game could have had huge implications if the Chiefs would have maintained their lofty perch as the powerhouse team in the AFC.

However, the Chiefs have suffered a swift and dramatic fall this season, and the losses have piled up and so have the injuries. QB Patrick Mahomes was lost with a torn ACL and backup QB Gardner Minshew is also out for the season with a knee injury.

While the Chiefs have lost their way, the Broncos have become an elite team under head coach Sean Payton. He has gotten great results from second-year QB Bo Nix, and Denver is in first place in the AFC West and the team is looking to hold off the second-place Los Angeles Chargers. Denver and Los Angeles will meet in the final week of the season, and that game could determine the division winner.

However, if the Broncos beat the Chiefs and the Chargers lose to the Texans this week, the Broncos will clinch the division title. The Broncos are also fighting for the top seed in the AFC playoff structure. Denver can clinch the No. 1 seed in the AFC with a win over the Chiefs, while the Chargers, Bills and Jaguars lose or tie and the Patriots lose.

Nix has control of the Broncos offense

The Broncos are depending on Nix to lead the way. The second-year QB has completed 348 of 551 passes for 3,608 yards with 24 touchdowns and 10 interceptions. Wideout Courtland Sutton is his top receiver, and he has caught 69 passes for 972 yards with 7 interceptions. Chiefs defensive end George Karlaftis leads his team with 6.0 sacks, but the Broncos should be able to keep him from dominating.

Denver has the 4th-ranked defense in the league as the Broncos are allowing 291.6 yards per game. That unit should be able to stop a Kansas City offense that will be forced to start Chris Oladokun at quarterback. He had been promoted from the Chiefs practice squad after the Mahomes injury. He replaced Minshew after his Week 17 injury against the Titans and he completed 11 of 16 passes for 111 yards.

Oladukon did not throw an interception, but that may be difficult to repeat against the Broncos.

Broncos vs. Chiefs Prediction and Pick

The Broncos have important goals ahead of them, while the stunned Chiefs are playing to avoid a 10-loss season. The Broncos are the better team and much healthier than their opponent. They also have strong motivation to take care of business against an opponent that has ruled the AFC West for years.

This is a game the Broncos should be able to jump ahead of the Chiefs early and maintain their advantage. The Broncos are huge road favorites against a battered but still prideful opponent. Based on their performance this season, the Broncos will earn a victory in this game, but the Chiefs should find a way to stay with the 13.5-point spread.

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