College football conference championship weekend is upon us, and it continues on Saturday with some massive Power 4 matchups. The schedule kicks off with the Big 12 Championship between the BYU Cougars (11-1) and Texas Tech Red Raiders (11-1). Texas Tech is ranked No. 4 and is a lock for the College Football Playoff, while BYU likely needs a win for a berth in the 12-team field.
Let’s dive into my favorite picks for the Big 12 Championship.
BYU Cougars vs. Texas Tech Red Raiders odds
Money line: BYU +385 / Texas Tech -500
Spread: BYU +12.5 (-110) / Texas Tech -12.5 (-110)
Total: Over 49.5 (-110) / Under 49.5 (-110)
BYU Cougars vs. Texas Tech Red Raiders best bet #1: Under 49.5 (-110)
These two teams just squared off on November 8 in Lubbock, where Texas Tech coasted to a 29-7 victory. The Red Raiders forced three turnovers and there is no reason why they can’t do it again. After all, they are No. 2 in the entire nation in takeaways this season with 27. This is simply a dominant defense all around. Texas Tech is giving up the third-fewest points per game at 11.3 (only Ohio State and Indiana are superior in that department). The unit is No. 1 against the run (68.9 yards per game allowed) and No. 5 in yards per pass attempt allowed (5.4). After holding BYU to seven points, the Red Raiders limited UCF to nine points and then blanked West Virginia. Linebacker Jacob Rodriguez (four interceptions, seven forced fumbles) could get an invite to the Heisman Trophy ceremony.
The Cougars’ own defense is part of the reason why points will likely be at a premium on Saturday. BYU is 14th nationally in scoring defense at 17.8 points per game allowed. It is true that Texas Tech went on seven scoring drives in the first meeting between these two teams, but five of those drives resulted in field goals and only two of its scoring drives took up more than 59 yards. Only 36 points were scored in the first head-to-head matchup and another relatively low-scoring contest could be in the cards.
BYU Cougars vs. Texas Tech Red Raiders best player prop bet: Cameron Dickey Over 86.5 rushing yards (-114)
Although BYU’s defense is great, it can be a little bit vulnerable against the run (119.0 rushing yards per game allowed on 3.7 yards per attempt). The Red Raiders had no trouble moving the ball on the ground against the Cougars in November. Texas Tech amassed 149 such yards, with 121 coming from Dickey — who also scored a touchdown on 23 rushes.
That kind of success is nothing new for the sophomore out of Austin, Tex., who has 1,023 rushing yards and 13 total touchdowns (11 rushing, two receiving). Dickey delivered a 263-yard performance earlier this year (October 11 against Kansas) and he has gained at least 77 yards in three straight outings. Asking him to reach at least the 87 mark this weekend should not be too much.