It’s been a long season for the Flames, but whether you view it as a hard one depends entirely on whether you were on Team Tank or not. For those who were, it’s arguably been a success. The chances are reasonably good for getting a very high pick, with Calgary Flames fan Gavin McKenna tipped to go first overall.
As it stands, the Flames have the third-best odds for May’s draft lottery, with a guaranteed minimum of drafting top five, something that they’ve rarely been able to do in the past. All Flames fans will likely be hoping for McKenna or Ivar Stenberg from Frölunda in the SHL. Even if the Flames don’t end up drafting in the top two, there are some promising talents available this year. However, the problem with the lottery is that you can’t truly prepare until you know where you’ll be drafting.
Some years, there’s a clear number one pick (McDavid, Bedard, etc). Although McKenna is tipped to be that man in 2026, some think that Vancouver, which has the best lottery odds, could opt for Stenberg if they end up drafting first overall. Keaton Verhoeff is also tipped to be near the top of the draft, potentially settling in behind McKenna and Stenberg. At just 17, he’s got the longevity for whoever drafts him.
With the regular season winding down, here are the teams that had the third-best lottery odds. Let’s look at who they drafted, where they actually picked, and how those players have fared.
2025 – Nashville Predators – Fell to fifth overall – Drafted Brady Martin (C, Canada)
It’s still too early to judge a centre who was only drafted less than a year ago. Yet, Martin has made a promising start to his NHL career. He is showing early signs of becoming a solid middle-six staple for the Preds.
2024 – Anaheim Ducks – Retained third overall – Drafted Beckett Sennecke (RW, Canada)
Sennecke’s reaction to being drafted third overall was one of the highlights of the 2024 draft. He seemed genuinely shocked to go that early, but the Ducks’ judgment seems solid, based on early evidence at least.
This is his first season in the Ducks’ line-up. He is projected to gain 62 points (as of 10th April), helped by a recent goal against the Flames, a promising number in a rookie season. He, like Martin, is developing into a fine top-six forward.
2023 – Chicago Blackhawks – Jumped to first overall – Drafted Connor Bedard (C, Canada)
Arguably the highest-profile draft pick of the 2020s, Bedard’s numbers have been impressive. Albeit, his numbers are slightly overshadowed by fellow first overall pick Macklin Celebrini. Drafted from the Regina Pats, Bedard has started his career with 67 points in his debut season. He had a projected 75 in his second, yet it was a much shorter season due to injury. Good numbers for someone who is still only 20 years old.
Bedard has the potential to get much better. But Chicago’s ever-increasing list of high draft picks in recent years has not yet resulted in an improvement in results.
2022 – Seattle Kraken – Dropped to fourth overall – Drafted Shane Wright (C, Canada)
Much like Sennecke, Wright’s reaction to his draft position drew plenty of online attention, but not in a good way. While he has since denied it was out of anger, his glare towards the Canadiens’ table after they passed on him at first overall became a viral moment.
Unfortunately for Wright and the Kraken, it does seem that the Canadiens were right to look elsewhere. His numbers have been underwhelming, with returns of two points (from eight games), five (8 games), 44 (79) and 26 (72) not really catching anyone’s attention.
Some reports linked him with the Flames before the trade window shut. Could this be a deal that the Flames look at in the summer as part of building a young core? At 22 years old, he still has a lot of years ahead of him. A group focused on youth could benefit him.
2021 – Seattle Kraken – Jumped to second overall – Drafted Matty Beniers (C, USA)
A success story for the Kraken as he has become a core piece of their franchise, including becoming a Calder Trophy winner in 2023.
His numbers aren’t necessarily anything to write home about, with points totals of 57, 37, 43, and a projected 49 for this year, but they’re solid for a young player.
A mixed bag
So, overall: two jumps, a retained, and two drops, but only one player who could potentially be called a flop. Even if the Flames do fall to fifth, that’s by no means a bad thing. Some household names have been drafted at that position, including former Flame (and pretty much every other team in the NHL) Jaromir Jagr, as well as Vezina, Hart, and Ted Lindsay Trophy winner Carey Price, and not to forget, of course, the hot-dog man himself, Phil Kessel. Also, the Flames drafted both Elias Lindholm and Noah Hanafin at fifth overall.
In reality, throughout the history of the NHL draft, the numbers suggest that the team with the third-best odds will often end up drafting third, with it happening roughly 1/3 of the time. Jumps up seem fairly uncommon, with only about 20% of first overall picks coming from the team that entered with the third-best odds.
This draft is a chance to bolster the Flames’ horde of talented youngsters. It can potentially spearhead the rebuild, whether that be McKenna, Stenberg, or a blue-chip at fifth. The Flames need a talisman, and this could be the chance to finally get one again.
It’s also worth noting that Edmonton had the third-best odds going into the 2015 draft lottery. We all know how that turned out!