Jake Paul stepping into the ring with Anthony Joshua represents a legitimate mismatch that the betting markets have already priced in with brutal clarity. Joshua is installed as a near-prohibitive favorite at 1/16 odds, while Paul’s knockout survival sits at 8/1 against being knocked down at any point during the fight. The likelihood of Paul being knocked out by Joshua is substantial.
Anthony Joshua Knockout Odds Against Jake Paul
The first-round knockout market provides perhaps the starkest reality check: Some offer +5000 odds for Paul surviving round one, while round three knockout odds sit at +6000. These astronomical prices reflect genuine conviction that Paul likely won’t see the final bell. By comparison, Joshua’s own first-round knockout odds are a more modest 70/1, suggesting oddsmakers believe Joshua will establish control and methodically dismantle Paul over the middle rounds rather than charge in recklessly. Check more numbers at online casino uden rofus.
The betting markets have placed his knockout odds in the range of -1300 to -475 depending on the specific knockout proposition, which in practical terms means approximately an 89-94 percent probability that Joshua finishes the fight by knockout or technical knockout within eight rounds.
The physical disparity alone tilts the scales heavily in Joshua’s favor. Joshua stands 6 feet 6 inches tall and weighs approximately 245 pounds for this bout, while Paul comes in at 6 feet 1 inch and around 220 pounds. That five-inch height advantage translates to a six-inch reach difference that Joshua will exploit throughout eight rounds. To put this in perspective, when the fighters met for their press conference face-off, Paul appeared at Joshua’s chest.
The knockout records tell the real story. Joshua has finished 25 of his 28 victories with knockouts, a 89 percent knockout ratio accumulated against world-class opposition over more than a decade as a professional heavyweight. His most recent devastating evidence came in March 2024 against Francis Ngannou, when Joshua systematically knocked down the former UFC heavyweight champion twice in the opening round before delivering a perfectly placed straight right hand that rendered Ngannou unconscious in round two.
Ngannou, who weighed 272 pounds, was powerless to prevent Joshua’s finishing sequence. Paul, conversely, has knocked out just seven opponents in 12 professional fights, a 58 percent ratio that deflates considerably when those victories are examined: most came against fighters with minimal professional pedigree in the early rounds.
The sportsbooks understand what Joshua himself has acknowledged: anything short of a convincing victory would constitute failure. When asked about success standards for the fight, Joshua stated that a competitive eight-round decision would represent “a big failure,” with only knockout finishes aligning with his expectations of himself. Betting analysis from multiple shops identifies Joshua knocking out Paul by KO/TKO at -475 odds as the premier prop bet, with analysts specifically noting Joshua’s three knockout wins in his last four fights and the “serious problem” that the weight differential poses to Paul.
The math is straightforward, and it explains why sportsbooks are offering the odds they are offering.