The stage is set at Rod Laver Arena on Sunday when world No. 1 Carlos Alcaraz and World No. 4 Novak Djokovic will meet for the 2026 Australian Open title.
As it often is in the big finals, it’s also a battle for the history books. Djokovic is chasing a record-extending 25th Grand Slam and his 11th Melbourne title, while Alcaraz is one win away from becoming the youngest man ever to complete the Career Grand Slam.
Bookmakers hold the Spaniard as clear favorite but we know now that Djokovic can never, ever be counted out. Let’s see some stats ahead of the final and our own predictions for Alcaraz vs Djokovic.
Close Head-to-Head
The rivalry remains one of the most balanced in sports history.
- Overall Record: Djokovic leads 5–4.
- Grand Slam Matchups: Alcaraz leads 3–2.
- Grand Slam Finals: Alcaraz leads 2–0 (Wimbledon 2023, 2024).
- Last Meeting: Alcaraz won their most recent clash at the 2025 US Open semifinals in straight sets.
Road to the AO 2026 Final
Both players survived tough five-set marathons in the semifinals, totalling nearly 10 hours of tennis on the same day.
Carlos Alcaraz (No. 1 Seed)
Alcaraz made history by reaching the final in the longest Australian Open semifinal ever (5 hours, 27 minutes).
SF Result: Defeated Alexander Zverev 6-4, 7-6(5), 6-7(3), 6-7(4), 7-5.
Alcaraz overcame visible cramping in the 3rd and 4th sets. His average first-serve speed dropped from 204 km/h to 177 km/h during the physical dip, but he recovered to win the final four games of the match.
Novak Djokovic (No. 4 Seed)
Djokovic defied the odds by dethroning the two-time defending champion in a four-hour masterclass.
SF Result: Defeated Jannik Sinner 3-6, 6-3, 4-6, 6-4, 6-4.
Djokovic saved 16 of 18 break points against Sinner. He also celebrated his 1,400th tour-level match during this tournament.
At 38, he is looking to become the oldest Australian Open champion in the Open Era. He entered the semifinal as a massive underdog in the tennis odds but proved his status at Melbourne Park.
| Alcaraz | Djokovic | |
| Age | 22 | 38 |
| AO Record | 17–4 | 104–10 |
| AO Titles | 0 (First Final) | 10 |
| Tournament Aces | 12 (in SF) | 12 (in SF) |
| 1st Serve % (Tourn.) | ~64% | ~67% |
| The Stakes | Youngest Career Grand Slam | 25th Major Title |
Predictions and Betting Odds
Not many, including ourselves, believed Novak had what it takes to take out one of the Big 2 in these big matches anymore but we were wrong. Can he do it again? Doubtful, but we can never count him out. He has often failed to be physically 100% in back-to-back matches though and he might run out of steam in this one.
Expect long rallies and momentum swings, Alcaraz need to keep a more consistent high level to get this through and I think he has got what it takes in the end over 5 sets.
Odds:
- Alcaraz to win: 1.33 or -300
- Djokovic to win: 3.40 or +240
Prediction: Alcaraz in four sets, at odds 3.45