The European clay swing is upon us, with the ATP Tour trading hardcourts for red dirt this week.
Off the back of such a dramatic shift in surface and location, who’s favorite heading into the first few clay events of the year? My 2026 clay power rankings are an attempt at answering that question.
I’ve weighted three criteria equally to determine a top 10 coming into this swing: 2026 form, 2025 clay results, and overall clay pedigree. Essentially, I’m looking for players that are playing well right now, have had recent success on the surface, and have proven over time that they’re good clay courters.
Of course there’s always a bit of subjectivity and judgement in a list like this, but I’m trying my best to keep opinion out of these rankings. This isn’t who I think is best, or who I’m tipping to win the most this year: it’s simply who the numbers are pointing at.
1. Carlos Alcaraz
2026 form: 17-2
2025 clay results: 22-1
Overall clay record: 103-19 (84%)
Alcaraz is a clear number one heading into this year’s clay swing. He’s been one of the two best players of the year so far, and is now entering the surface he favors most. Last year, he lost just once on clay, winning Monte-Carlo, Rome and Roland-Garros. The Spaniard has 11 of his career titles on the dirt – including two majors and four Masters – and has a game brilliantly suited to it as well, with his physicality, spin and variation.
The one point going against Alcaraz is he had a quiet Sunshine Double, with exits in the semis and third round. Still, let’s just remember he was on a 16-match winning streak just a few weeks ago, so it’s not like he’s in bad form by any stretch of the imagination. If anything, his early exit in Miami will have given him extra time to rest and prepare.
2. Jannik Sinner
2026 form: 19-2
2025 clay results: 11-2
Overall clay record: 65-24 (73%)
No surprises to see world No 2 Sinner coming in at second place in these clay power rankings.
The Italian has just won back-to-back Masters 1000 titles in North America without dropping a set, and hits the clay riding a 12-match win streak. While Sinner is known for his domination of hard courts, he’s no mug on clay either, having made the finals of Roland-Garros and Rome last year. Prior to that, he’d been suspended for three months, so missed the start of the clay swing.
Surprisingly, Sinner has just one title on clay – an ATP 250 in Umag. His win rate of 73% is respectable, and he’s regularly been at the business end of these tournaments since making the step up a few years ago. The 24-year-old has just fallen short at the last hurdle.
3. Alexander Zverev
2026 form: 15-5
2025 clay results: 18-7
Overall clay record: 169-62 (73%)
Clay is arguably Zverev’s strongest surface, despite his first-serve dominance. The German has nine clay titles, four of which have come at the Masters 1000 level. He’s also been to the Roland-Garros final once, and the semis on three other occasions.
Last year, Zverev didn’t have his best clay swing, however. He won a title in Munich, but only defeated one top-20 player en route to the trophy. Outside of that, he made the quarters in Rome and Paris, and picked up a couple of wins on the Golden Swing too. So far this year, he’s been as expected – a regular in the semi-finals, making the last four in Melbourne, Indian Wells and Miami.
4. Lorenzo Musetti
2026 form: 7-3
2025 clay results: 19-4
Overall clay record: 77-40 (66%)
This is the first result from these clay power rankings that could be seen as controversial, but there are solid numbers behind putting Musetti at No 4.
The Italian was incredible on clay last year. Not only did he go 19-4 with a run to the Monte-Carlo final and semis in Madrid, Rome and Paris, but his only losses on European dirt were to Alcaraz (three times) and Draper (once). That’s right, he went the better part of 10 weeks and lost only once to someone not named Alcaraz. The run didn’t come out of the blue either – he’s 66% on clay across his career.
Form-wise, Musetti enters clay off the back of a tough injury. He had been flying, making the final in Hong Kong then getting up two sets to love against Djokovic in the Australian Open quarter-finals, until disaster struck and he was forced to retire. He’s played once since then, a physically-compromised loss in his first match at Indian Wells.
5. Novak Djokovic
2026 form: 7-2
2025 clay results: 9-3
Overall clay record: 295-72 (80%)
Putting Djokovic at No 5 on this list feels bold, given he’s got 21 clay titles to his name including three French Open trophies and 11 Masters. There’s no denying Djokovic is an elite player on clay – the only question mark is how much the 38-year-old wants it.
Last clay swing, Djokovic lost first-round in both Monte-Carlo and Madrid. He then went on to win title No 100 in Geneva, and make the semi-finals of Roland-Garros. Talk about a mixed bag. So far this year, he’s made the final of the Australian Open (defeating Sinner in the semis, mind you) and lost a tight one to Jack Draper in the Indian Wells round of 16.
If Djokovic was playing a full schedule, he’d be a lock at No 3 on this list, if not higher. But given he’s in and out, and may not even mind what his results look like until Roland-Garros, this spot feels appropriate.
6. Casper Ruud
2026 form: 7-7
2025 clay results: 14-5
Overall clay record: 159-57 (74%)
Ruud may be in poor form at the moment, but the Norwegian lives for this section of the calendar.
Last year he was doing well with quarter-finals in Barcelona and Rome and a title in Madrid, but suffered a tough loss in the second round of Roland-Garros due in large part to an injury he was carrying. Look a little wider at Ruud’s body of work, and his clay credentials are very strong. We’re talking 12 titles on the surface and two Roland-Garros finals.
This season he’s been in a rut though, only twice winning back-to-back matches. Honestly, I’m not too concerned about this – he’s just had his first child, and getting back on tour must be tough. I expect his focus will return for clay though.
7. Stefanos Tsitsipas
2026 form: 11-7
2025 clay results: 7-5
Overall clay record: 123-41 (75%)
What the heck is Tsitsipas doing on this list? I know, I tried to find an argument to get him off here, but I just couldn’t.
The Greek may be ranked No 49 in the world at the moment, but there’s no denying his credentials on clay. Tsitsipas has five clay titles, three of which are Masters 1000s. He’s also made a further eight finals, one of which was the Roland-Garros final in 2021.
Last clay swing was the first time that he hasn’t truly been one of the few best clay courters in the world. It wasn’t an absolute dud – quarters in Monte-Carlo and Barcelona – but by his standards, it was poor. This is reflective of an overall trend for Tsitsipas, which is down.
However, until he has back-to-back bad clay seasons, I can’t ignore his overall body of work here.
8. Arthur Fils
2026 form: 13-5
2025 clay results: 10-4
Overall clay record: 28-18 (61%)
Fils couldn’t be more different to Tsitsipas. The Frenchman arrives on clay in brilliant form, and having had a sharp clay season in 2025. However, he’s pretty unproven on this surface overall.
The 21-year-old has recently returned from a long injury layoff, but has already banked 13 wins in 2026 with a final in Doha, quarter in Indian Wells and semi in Miami. Last year he was a similar picture of consistency, with a quarter-final run in Monte-Carlo, semis in Barcelona and then a few more good wins across Rome and Roland-Garros (including vs Tsitsipas).
Overall though, Fils has only won two clay titles, and never been further than the last eight at a Masters or Grand Slam on the surface. All signs are pointing in the right direction, but he can’t be any higher up these power rankings until he’s proved himself.
9. Jack Draper
2026 form: 5-3
2025 clay results: 12-4
Overall clay record: 21-15 (58%)
Draper is a similar deal to Fils, except his form isn’t quite as good. The Brit returned to the tour recently after a long layoff, and has won just five matches so far. His losses haven’t been too bad though – a tight one to Arthur Rinderknech, then to a red-hot Daniil Medvedev and two breakers vs Reilly Opelka. He also beat Djokovic in an epic in Indian Wells, 7-6 in the third.
Last year was his big breakthrough on clay. He made the final of Madrid, quarters of Rome and round of 16 in Paris, beating the likes of Musetti, Tommy Paul and Joao Fonseca. His lack of results on clay have him down at No 9 though, plus question marks over his fitness.
10. Francisco Cerundolo
2026 form: 14-6
2025 clay results: 21-11
Overall clay record: 87-54 (62%)
Rounding out my clay power rankings is Cerundolo. Honestly, I had Flavio Cobolli in this spot but I bumped him out at the last minute because I think the Argentine’s numbers are slightly stronger.
Cerundolo has a good record on clay, with 21 wins in 2025 on the surface. Trouble is, a good chunk of these weren’t in the classic European clay swing – he plays a lot of the South American stuff too, which skews his numbers. Still, he made the Madrid semis last year and has two other clay Masters quarter-finals to his name, as well as four titles.
This year, the 27-year-old has been decent, without setting the world on fire: round of 16 in Australia, title in Buenos Aires, semi in Santiago, quarters in Miami.
Honorable mentions
- Flavio Cobolli – 9-7, 14-5, 28-19 (60%)
- Alexander Bublik – 13-6, 16-5, 37-37 (50%)
- Alejandro Davidovich Fokina – 9-7, 9-6, 50-44 (53%)
- Joao Fonseca – 5-5, 8-4, 14-12 (54%)
- Alex de Minaur – 12-4, 10-5, 39-37 (51%)
- Taylor Fritz – 12-8, 3-4, 54-41 (57%)
- Felix Auger-Aliassime – 15-6, 3-6, 115-72 (61%)
- Andrey Rublev – 10-6, 8-6, 86-46 (65%)
- Ben Shelton – 11-4, 7-5, 17-16 (52%)
- Daniil Medvedev – 19-6, 6-4, 45-35 (56%)
As you can see, there are a whole host of other ATP players who didn’t quite make the cut for my 2026 clay power rankings.
The likes of Rublev and Auger-Aliassime have good track records on clay but weren’t good enough last year and are in middling form at the moment. Others, such as Cobolli, Bublik and de Minaur were good in 2025 but don’t have great records overall on clay.
Then there’s your Medvedevs, Sheltons and Fritzs who are top-10 regulars, but don’t take to the dirt too well. And of course, wildcards like Fonseca and Davidovich Fokina, who are capable of big highs and haven’t shown enough consistency yet.
Think the clay season will follow these power rankings, or are there going to be some newcomers to the ranks? If you’ve got a prediction of your own, now would be a good time to get a bet in on tennis betting sites ahead of Roland-Garros, as markets will shift over the coming weeks when clay results start to come in for 2026.
Speaking of, keep an eye out, as I’ll be giving my early French Open predictions later this week.