With two hand injuries in the rear-view mirror, it’s time for Condon to prove he can tap into the plus-plus power that made him such a coveted amateur prospect.
Condon put up cartoonish numbers at Georgia, homering 62 times in two seasons, including 37 times in 2024 alone, when he hit .433/.446/1.009 in a Golden Spikes-winning campaign. He was considered by many the top prospect in that year’s draft, and when he fell to the third overall pick, Colorado seemed a perfect match of offensive upside and future park.
It may still prove to be. Eric was (and remains) skeptical of Condon even while he was riding roughshod over the SEC, and his first year-and-a-half of pro at-bats have only validated pre-draft concerns about a grooved bat path and trouble recognizing spin. You can wave away a rough pro debut, as post-draft cameos are kind of awkward, and he was battling through a bone spur in his finger at the time anyway. But even as a wrist fracture last spring complicates the evaluation of his 2025 performance, it’s becoming fair to wonder how much pop Condon will bring into games.
There’s little doubt about his raw impact. Condon is a big guy with plus bat speed and a powerful swing that produces data commensurate with the visual evaluation. His 90th-percentile exit velocity was nearly 106 mph and his max was over 112, both of which are plus. He also had a 44% hard-hit rate and a 13 degree average launch angle that looks, well, like a match for a guy who bashed 60 homers in college. Still, he only homered 14 times in 99 games while running a 131 wRC+ across High- and Double-A, which are both fine in the aggregate but underwhelming for a player with this skill set. This coincided with a move to first base — perhaps just to protect the wrist, perhaps not. We’ll see what Colorado’s new regime decides to do here, because Condon has played elsewhere and looked like a perfectly fine corner outfielder as a pro.
Ultimately, the power potential here is too great to ignore despite everything else. There’s enough noise and hand injuries lurking to think that there’s some small chance of a big breakout coming, but even if there’s not, Condon projects as a 2-3 WAR player with 35-plus homer potential, even if he’s flawed elsewhere.