Holliday was the No. 4 pick in the 2025 draft and probably the most famous name selected, thanks to his dad, his brother Jackson and years of hype around Ethan’s easy power and potential to be more of an impact hitter than Jackson. He’s a shortstop now, with really good hands and a plus arm, but he has no chance to stay there given his size and lack of lateral range, with third base the best-case scenario and right field a realistic outcome.
As a hitter, he has plenty of bat speed and the raw power is probably a 70, but last spring, he seemed to be trying too hard to launch the ball to his pull side, so his front side was flying open and he had a hole on the outer third as a result. Holliday struggled mightily in his pro debut, as the Rockies sent him to Low A and he struck out 33 times in 84 PA (39.3 percent), even having trouble against good fastballs and looking stiffer and slower in the box. While that doesn’t undo everything he did before the draft, it’s very concerning for someone picked that high, and at the very least, he’s going to need more time to develop than the typical high school hitter taken in the top few picks of any draft class. He knows the strike zone well, and even in that stint in Low A didn’t chase pitches out of the zone excessively (25 percent overall, 16 percent on pitches well out of the zone), consistent with what he showed as an amateur.
I had Holliday ranked at the top of the 2025 draft class, which was a weak one at its uppermost echelon, based on the 30-homer upside and good instincts all around, but the near-universal sentiment after his pro debut is that he’s a much higher-risk prospect than it seemed a year ago.