Around the AFC
Old man Rivers. Philip Rivers returning to Indianapolis and perhaps even starting this weekend at Seattle is one of the most compelling stories in the NFL this year. Can the 44-year-old really do it? Can he come off the bench cold after five years and not play disastrous football? Conventional wisdom suggests no, but what a story if he can. Everybody will be watching.
Two-way go. The Broncos should very clearly be rooting for Kansas City to get off the skid and beat the Chargers this weekend. Still, the AFC West matchup essentially amounts to a win-win for Denver. If the Chargers win, Kansas City is fully out of the playoff picture. So while a Chargers loss is by far the better outcome for Denver’s division title hopes, a Chiefs loss isn’t terrible, either. If Jim Harbaugh’s team wins and the Broncos lose to Green Bay, the race in the West is very much on.
Dudes in a dud. Not often you get a matchup of future Hall of Fame-type quarterbacks in December that has as little juice as Baltimore and Cincinnati this weekend. This could have been a top-of-the-division tilt, but instead it’s a 6-7 vs. 4-9 game. The Ravens most certainly aren’t out of the picture in the AFC North, but Lamar Jackson and the offense have been going nowhere recently. Meanwhile, the Bengals are out of the playoff race and Joe Burrow is questioning whether playing football is still fun for him. This should almost always be a dynamite late-season matchup. Not this time.
Around the NFC
Crunch time for Lions. Detroit has a massive challenge and a near must-win at the NFC-leading Los Angeles Rams. The Lions are currently sitting in third in the NFC North with 40% playoff odds, according to the New York Times’ playoff predictor. If they manage to beat L.A., those odds jump to 60% before any other Week 15 action. If they lose, the odds plummet to 30%. So, a 30-point swing one way or the other.
Couple Bucs short. There are bad losses and then there’s Tampa Bay blowing a 14-point fourth-quarter lead at home against Atlanta. The Falcons had already been mathematically eliminated from the playoffs, but stormed back to beat Baker Mayfield’s Bucs. Tampa’s lost five of six, including New Orleans and Atlanta back-to-back. Carolina can take control of the NFC South on Sunday. Todd Bowles might be looking around and asking, “Is it just me or is this seat a little warm?”
Dak attack. Dallas at 6-6-1 needs to win out to have a realistic chance at the playoffs. Their final four isn’t impossible. They start this weekend with Minnesota before a tough one at home against the Chargers. Then they finish with roadies at Washington and the New York Giants. That’s a doable slate for the NFL’s leading passer, Dak Prescott, and his terrific receiver duo of CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens.
Game of the Week
Buffalo at New England
If anybody is going to stop New England’s mega-heater, the Bills are probably the best bet. The Patriots already have a game in hand against Buffalo — the second of their current 10-game winning streak was a 23-20 victory in Western New York — and now they get the defending division champs at home with a chance to put the division on ice.
Mike Vrabel has engineered one of the great single-season turnarounds in league history in his debut season as New England’s coach and this will be the club’s biggest test to date. The final three isn’t a total cake walk — at Baltimore, at the New York Jets and home against streaking Miami — but this feels like the biggest hill left on the route to the AFC’s No. 1 seed. Well, that and the fact that Denver’s also won 10 straight. The Bills are 1.5-point road favorites. This should be a terrific one.
Bills 24, Patriots 23
Lock of the Week
Las Vegas at Philadelphia
Even after a stumble last week, the Eagles are 1.5 games clear in the NFC East and they’re the only team in the division with a positive points differential. Dallas could mount a run at them, but Philly should be in pretty good shape. All the same, they’ve chewed through a decent amount of their margin for error and still have a road game at Buffalo on the docket. Nick Sirianni’s team can’t afford a dumb loss. This would be exactly that. The Raiders are in dire straits across the board and are still in the mix for the No. 1 overall pick in the draft. You shouldn’t be able to set this line high enough. The sports books have it pegged at 11.5 points. Maybe Raiders coach Pete Carroll can call for a meaningless field goal that covers the spread for the second straight week.
Eagles 27, Raiders 13
Upset of the Week
Miami at Pittsburgh
Every time the Steelers do something notable, they seem to take a step back. They did something notable last week, knocking off Baltimore in a thriller and taking sole possession of first place in the AFC North in the process. They’ve still got another matchup with the Ravens in Week 18 at home, but in the meantime, they’ve got a chance to potentially build a bit of a lead.
Miami, though, is playing well itself and has won four straight games. That’s all probably for naught — even if they win their last four games, the postseason odds don’t favor Mike McDaniel’s team — but it makes life difficult for Pittsburgh. Can Aaron Rodgers conjure more high-level December play as a three-point home favorite? Maybe, but not this week.
Dolphins 20, Steelers 19
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