NFL Christmas Football Week 17
Christmas afternoon brings a stark contrast in motivations when the Detroit Lions visit U.S. Bank Stadium to face the Minnesota Vikings in a game that means everything to one team and provides sweet revenge opportunity for the other. Detroit arrives desperate, clinging to mathematical playoff possibilities after back-to-back devastating losses, while Minnesota comes in hot with three straight victories and nothing left to play for except pride and the chance to eliminate a hated division rival.
The Lions sit at 8-7 following consecutive heartbreaking defeats that have left their postseason hopes hanging by the thinnest of threads. Detroit fell 41-34 to the Los Angeles Rams in Week 15 after blowing a 24-17 halftime lead, then suffered an even more crushing 29-24 loss to Pittsburgh in Week 16 on a controversial offensive pass interference call that wiped out what would have been a game-winning touchdown on the final play. For Dan Campbell’s squad to reach the playoffs, they must win both remaining games against Minnesota and Chicago while hoping the Green Bay Packers lose their final two contests. The margin for error has evaporated completely.
Minnesota enters at 7-8 after winning three consecutive games, though its playoff fate was sealed weeks ago. The Vikings are coming off a gritty 16-13 victory over the New York Giants in which backup quarterback Max Brosmer engineered a game-winning drive after starter J.J. McCarthy exited with a hand injury. That medical development shapes everything about this matchup, as the Vikings announced Tuesday that McCarthy suffered a hairline fracture in his throwing hand and will miss Thursday’s contest. Brosmer, an undrafted rookie out of New Hampshire, will make his second career start.
What Are The Odds?
All three Christmas games this year feature a road favorite. The 8-7 Detroit Lions are 7.5 points over the 7-8 Minnesota Vikings. The total points for this game are set at 43.5, which seems low for an indoor game that won’t have to deal with the elements. Backup QBs is the running theme on Thursday, with Max Brosmer trying his best to entertain the fanbase. With the Lions not mathematically eliminated from the Playoffs, that Spread seems appealing. I’m sure the Vikings’ young QB will make at least one mistake that will set up Detroit for easy points. If you’re thinking about getting in on this game, make sure you research which sportsbook is available in your area and take advantage of first-time signup offers. Whether it’s a state provider or one of those VPNCasinos, there is always a first-time sign-up deal that I recommend taking advantage of. Often, people overlook those offers and really miss out.
Head to Head
These teams met in Week 9 at Ford Field, where Minnesota stunned the Lions 27-24 behind McCarthy’s poised performance in his return from injury. McCarthy threw touchdown passes to Jefferson and Hockenson while adding a rushing score, and the Vikings defense shut down Detroit’s vaunted ground game, limiting Jahmyr Gibbs to just 25 yards on nine carries. That loss was one of several close defeats that have defined Detroit’s inconsistent campaign, and the Lions desperately need revenge to keep their playoff dreams alive.
The quarterback matchup favors Detroit significantly. Jared Goff has been spectacular this season with 4,036 passing yards and 32 touchdowns against only five interceptions while completing nearly 69 percent of his passes. The veteran has developed elite chemistry with Amon-Ra St. Brown, who has hauled in 98 receptions for 1,194 yards and 11 touchdowns. St. Brown recorded 13 catches for 164 yards and two scores in the Week 15 loss to Los Angeles, showcasing the connection that makes Detroit’s passing attack one of the league’s most potent.
Brosmer faces a daunting task in his second start on a short week. His first start came in Week 13 at Seattle, where he completed 19 of 30 passes for 126 yards but threw four interceptions in a 26-0 shutout loss. He showed resilience in relief duty Sunday, completing seven of nine attempts for 52 yards and leading a crucial fourth-quarter field goal drive. Still, asking an undrafted rookie to outduel Goff with playoff implications on the line represents a massive challenge for Kevin O’Connell’s offense.
Detroit’s offensive strength centers on balance. While Goff and St. Brown provide explosive passing, the Lions lean heavily on their backfield tandem of Gibbs and David Montgomery. Gibbs has rushed for 1,102 yards and 13 touchdowns while averaging 5.3 yards per carry, recently passing Barry Sanders for most touchdowns by a player in their first three seasons in franchise history with 48. However, the ground game vanished during the losing streak, managing just 15 yards rushing against Pittsburgh in the lowest total of the Campbell era. Re-establishing that dimension becomes critical against Minnesota’s defense, which ranks fifth in total yards allowed per game at 296.8.
Minnesota’s offense ranks 28th in total yards per game at 276.7, reflecting their struggles throughout this disappointing season. The Vikings rank fifth-worst in passing yards per game at 173.7, creating massive pressure on their running game and defense to keep contests competitive. With Brosmer under center, expect Minnesota to lean heavily on Aaron Jones and attempt to control the clock, keeping the ball away from Goff and limiting Detroit’s possessions.
Defensively, Detroit ranks 23rd in points allowed per game at 24.9, a mark that betrays the talent on their roster. Aidan Hutchinson leads a pass rush that has generated pressure, but the secondary has been vulnerable, particularly in crucial moments. Minnesota’s defense has been the lone bright spot in their season, ranking third in passing yards allowed per game at 169.2. That unit will need to harness every ounce of their capability to slow Detroit’s multi-faceted attack.
Several players could swing this matchup decisively. For Detroit, Gibbs must bounce back from his disappearing act in the last two games, particularly the five-yard performance on six carries against Pittsburgh. If the Lions cannot establish the run, Minnesota can drop defenders into coverage and dare Brosmer to beat them through the air. St. Brown’s ability to create separation against Minnesota’s secondary will be crucial, as will Hutchinson’s capacity to pressure Brosmer into mistakes.
For Minnesota, Jefferson needs a monster game to give Brosmer manageable situations. The All-Pro receiver caught a crucial 21-yard pass on third-and-17 during Brosmer’s game-winning drive Sunday, showing he can deliver in pressure moments. Hockenson provides another security blanket, and the Vikings need both pass-catchers operating at peak efficiency. Defensively, Minnesota must generate pressure without blitzing too often, as Goff excels against blitzes.
The injury report centers entirely on McCarthy’s absence for Minnesota. His hairline fracture removes the Vikings’ best offensive weapon and forces them into a backup quarterback situation against a desperate opponent. Detroit appears relatively healthy, though the wear of a long season and consecutive crushing losses could impact their mental state entering this must-win scenario.
For Detroit to secure victory, they must reestablish their ground game early and take pressure off Goff. Running the ball effectively shortens the game, controls the clock, and prevents Minnesota’s defense from pinning their ears back in obvious passing situations. Defensively, the Lions need to capitalize on Brosmer’s inexperience by disguising coverages and creating pressure that forces turnovers. Getting ahead early would crush Minnesota’s conservative game plan and force Brosmer into uncomfortable passing situations.
Minnesota’s path to victory requires near-perfect execution from its defense, combined with a mistake-free performance from Brosmer. The Vikings need to control the line of scrimmage, stuff Detroit’s run game, and force Goff into third-and-long situations where their pass rush can influence proceedings. Offensively, Brosmer must protect the football above all else, leaning on short, high-percentage throws while the running game grinds out yards. Winning the turnover battle would give Minnesota their best chance at spoiling Detroit’s playoff hopes.
This game presents a fascinating contrast between a team playing for everything and one playing for pride. Detroit possesses superior talent and faces existential pressure, but consecutive losses have shaken their confidence. Minnesota enters with nothing to lose, three straight wins providing momentum, and the delicious opportunity to eliminate their division rival. The Vikings’ defensive strength matches up well against Detroit’s recent offensive struggles, and home-field advantage on a short week cannot be discounted.
Final Prediction: Lions 28, Vikings 17