There is nothing quite like a divisional matchup that matters (at least to one of the teams) late in the season. The only problem is that the Thursday night divisional battles have been anything but predictable. The underdog has come out with the win more often than not in these Thursday night divisional matchups (see Giants v Eagles, Niners v Rams, Bengals v Steelers, and Bengals v Ravens). So, what do we have in store with a Falcons team that has nothing to play for (except maybe their coach’s job) and a Buccaneers team that has lost four of its last five and is tied for first place with the Carolina Panthers!
But before we get into all that mess, let’s recap last week’s Showdown slate, where 162.54 points was the winning score.
- Captain, RB, J. Gibbs, 55.60 🔥, drafted 71.91%
- Flex: WR, C. Lamb, 21.10 🔥, drafted 55.29%
- Flex: QB, D. Prescott, 23.44 🔥, drafted 68.63%
- Flex: K, B. Aubrey, 23.00 🔥drafted 25.99%
- Flex: WR, I. TeSlaa, 10.00 drafted 27.58%
- Flex: WR, R. Flournoy, 29.50 🔥drafted 10.55%
Remember, this is single-entry. Now let’s make some money.
What Are the Odds
The odds for this game from the bigger sites and best sportsbooks in New Jersey have the Buccaneers as 5.5 point favorites. The total points for this game are 44, which has been trending upwards. The last time these two teams played was a high-scoring event. The Bucs beat the Falcons 23-20 in the first game of the season.
Atlanta Falcons vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Falcons also come into this game after getting thumped by the Seattle Seahawks last week, 9-37, at home. The Buccaneers lost to the New Orleans Saints last week, 20-24, also on their home turf.
The Falcons will once again be without Drake London, while the Buccaneers are optimistic for the return of Mike Evans and Jalen McMillan. Check the status before finalizing your lineup. Keep in mind last week’s surprise announcement that Amon-Ra St. Brown would play, which reshaped the game. Evans is capable of doing that, as is offensive lineman Tristan Wirfs.
Thursday Night Player Props
Bucky Irving, 15.5 rush attempts (-111) OVER: The Falcons are allowing an average of 28.8 rushing attempts to opponents per game. Irving is averaging 17.2 rushing attempts per game with a 64.2% snap share and a 67.9% opportunity share. In his last two games since his return, he has had 17 and 15 rush attempts.
Kyle Pitts 57.5 receiving yards (-115) OVER: London will not be in the game. In the last two weeks without London on the field, Cousins has targeted Pitts a team-leading eight times and 10 times. Last week, with 10 targets, Pitts collected 90 yards; the week prior, he had 82.
Bijan Robinson 76.5 rushing yards (-110) OVER: This will be the second meeting between the Falcons and Buccaneers this season. They played in Week 1. The Buccaneers held Robinson to 24 rushing yards, but gave up 100 receiving yards to him.
That was then. The Bucanneers just allowed Devin Neal of the Saints to run for 70 yards, and even the anemic run offense of the Arizona Cardinals had Zonovan Knight collect 62 rushing yards on them.
Baker Mayfield 218.5 passing yards (-111) UNDER: Mayfield hasn’t eclipsed 195 passing yards in his last four games. In their Week 1 meeting, he passed for 167 yards on 32 attempts. *The caveat is the status of Mike Evans*
If Evans plays, it’s a boost to Mayfield’s passing yards, and this would be an OVER bet for me.
Tyler Allgeier Anytime Touchdown +205
Fun Facts To Remember
There is always the possibility of Mayfield doing “Baker things”, except that he is playing with an injured shoulder on a short week. But his ability to pull out a high ceiling on any given day is there. The potential is even greater if Evans is on the field.
Wirfs is also a difference maker. He has a 2.4% career pressure rate allowed. This season, he has only allowed four quarterback hits and two sacks.
Cousins played the Buccaneers twice last season (and remember, he wasn’t having a great season then either; he eventually got benched for Michael Penix). The first meeting went into overtime, and Cousins threw for 509 yards with four touchdowns. In the second meeting, he had another four-touchdown outing but only 276 yards.
NFL Showdown $50K Huddle (Single-Entry)
This week’s single entry is a double-edged sword. The good is that both offenses are concentrated in their use of offensive weapons. The wicked side is that the range of outcomes this week feels more unpredictable.
Both quarterbacks have high ceilings and low floors. Are we getting the Mayfield we have seen in the past three weeks, low floor? Or will the Mayfield that is capable of elevating his teammates and putting the game on his shoulders appear? What about the Evans factor?
Cousins has shown that he can elevate his game at least against the Buccaneers’ defense. Can he still do it? And what about Mr. Robinson, “Mr(s). Robinson, you are trying to seduce me, aren’t you?”(You know that’s a slight paraphrase of Dustin Hoffman’s iconic line from The Graduate, right?) It would be easy to slot perhaps the best player on the field in the Captain’s role, but then you are limiting your choices (won’t be mad if you choose to do it, but you will have him in your lineup as a flex).
Let’s do this:
This will be the lineup without Evans on the field:
*Pitts’ injury status needs to be monitored also; he has been limited all week with a knee injury.
- Captain: RB, B. Robinson, $16,800
- Flex: RB, T. Allgeier, $4,000
- Flex: QB, K. Cousins, $8,800
- Flex: RB, B. Irving, $10,200
- Flex: TE, K. Pitts, $6,400
- Flex: WR, S. Shepard, $3,200
This lineup if Evans plays:
- Captain: QB, K. Cousins, $13,200
- Flex: WR, D. Drummond, $2,000
- Flex: RB, B. Irving $10,200
- Flex: QB, B. Mayfield, $10,000
- Flex: RB, B. Robinson, $11,200
- Flex: WR, S. Shepard, $3,200
Final Thought
Reserve your spot and wait, and see the official inactive list, then draft accordingly.
Good luck and play nice.