Rybakina beats Sabalenka 6-4, 4-6, 6-4!
So how will Rybakina handle her nerves here? She hasn’t been in this position, serving for a grand slam title, since the Wimbledon final in 2022, when she won her first and only major. Rybakina jumps up and down on the spot to shake off some tension before she serves … but Sabalenka has nothing to lose now and comes out on top in a forehand cross-court face-off! 0-15. But Rybakina sees Sabalenka’s aggression and raises it with a fearhand of a forehand down the line! 15-all. 30-15. The crowd rise; Rybakina definitely still has the majority of the Melbourne support. But a tame second serve and Sabalenka slashes it away! 30-all… will it be championship point or break point? Championship point, because Rybakina finds her first serve when it matters! And then another to close out victory! Rybakina has come from a break down in this final set to avenge her defeat by Sabalenka in the 2023 final and claim her first Australian Open title and second grand slam!
Key events
As Tumaini says, the challenge for Rybakina now is to show she can consistently compete with Sabalenka, Swiatek and Gauff for the biggest prizes in tennis. After her Wimbledon title in 2022 and run to the Australian Open final in 2023, she was halted by injury, illness and the suspension of her coach, but if the 26-year-old can find more stability off the court, there’s no reason why she can’t regularly mix it with the best at the slams – though the clay of Roland Garros may be a stretch.
When she’s playing at her best she’s almost impossible to stop, as she showed today, setting the tone from the first game, fighting fire with fire, and then raising the stakes even further when Sabalenka went ahead in the final set. It was a high-quality match to end a women’s event that hadn’t had a three-setter since the fourth round … and we’ve still got Carlos Alcaraz and Novak Djokovic to come in the men’s final tomorrow. Daniel will be here to bring you game-by-game coverage of that, so from me, thanks for your company and contributions the past two weeks, it’s definitely made the January days in London pass much more quickly. Bye!
Tumaini Carayol
Here’s Tumaini’s take on the final:
Elena Rybakina had plenty of reasons to lose faith in her latest pursuit of a second grand slam title. She had played well for so much of the Australian Open final, but just as was the case in their final here three years ago, as the world No 1 Aryna Sabalenka began to impose herself in the match, Rybakina lost all control. Trailing 0-3 and 30-30 on her serve in the final set, Rybakina’s chances were fading quickly.
Although Rybakina is one of the least expressive tennis players to ever reach these stages, her quiet, reserved persona belies the grit at the heart of her success. The fifth seed brilliantly drew upon her inner fire to produce the one of the great recoveries of her career, finding a way through from a break down in the final set to clinch her first Australian Open title with a brilliant 6-4, 4-6, 6-4 win over the No 1 Aryna Sabalenka.
This victory confirms a development that has been clear for some time: Rybakina is the in-form player in women’s tennis right now. The 26-year-old’s long-awaited second grand slam title comes after she ended last season by winning the WTA Finals with a similarly commanding win over Sabalenka in the final. The Kazakhstani player was floundering outside the top 10 as recently as July, but her victory solidified her position among the true elite by returning to her career high ranking of No 3.
When Rybakina captured her first grand slam title at Wimbledon in 2022, the prospect of her going nearly four years without winning a second major title seemed remote considering her shotmaking abilities, composure and youth. However, while Rybakina has long commanded the respect of her rivals, pundits and fans, she frequently failed to show up in the biggest tournaments.
While she would offer intermittent reminders of her talent, it has taken a long time for Rybakina to play with this clarity in the second week of a grand slam. She has now made it clear is here to regularly battle the likes of Sabalenka, Iga Swiatek and Coco Gauff for the biggest titles in the sport
Her difficulties, of course, have extended off the court in recent years. This time last year, Rybakina was competing on the tour without her longtime coach, Stefano Vukov, after he was suspended by the WTA due to his alleged verbal abuse of Rybakina. However, Rybakina publicly objected to the suspension, and she continued to train with him away from tournaments even though he was banned from attaining accreditation on the tour.
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But this year the Daphne Akhurst Memorial Cup is Rybakina’s, and she lifts the trophy, before saying: “It’s hard to find words but I want to congratulate Aryna on her amazing results; I know it’s tough right now.” She then thanks the crowd for “keeping her going” and has a shout out for the Kazakhstanis: “I felt the support from that corner a lot.” Rybakina, being Rybakina, doesn’t give too much away, but says it “really is the ‘happy slam’” and tells her team that she hopes “they can keep on going strong this year”. If she stays fit and healthy, there’s absolutely no reason why she can’t.
Trophy time. It’s great to see Jennifer Capriati, the 2001 and 2002 champion, is here for the presentation. And Sabalenka trudges up first, congratulating Rybakina “on an incredible achievement”, before saying: “I love playing here and in front of you guys … let’s hope next year is a better year for me.” She thanks her team for “enduring me losing finals” – and hopes they get their hands on “Daphne” in 2027. That was gracious from Sabalenka, after she had to apologise to Coco Gauff for failing to give the American credit for her win in the French Open final last year. She’s maturing so much as a player.
Rybakina, after a typically understated fist pump and a smile, is celebrating with her team; Sabalenka is in tears in her chair. Sabalenka will wonder how that got away from her, having led 3-0 in the third set. Yes, Sabalenka has won four grand slam titles but she’s had four painful defeats in finals too, including in three of her past four, and she’ll be kicking herself for surrendering that advantage. If it’s possible to call it surrendering, given Rybakina definitely stepped up her level and became much more aggressive. She basically out-Sabalenkaed Sabalenka.
Rybakina beats Sabalenka 6-4, 4-6, 6-4!
So how will Rybakina handle her nerves here? She hasn’t been in this position, serving for a grand slam title, since the Wimbledon final in 2022, when she won her first and only major. Rybakina jumps up and down on the spot to shake off some tension before she serves … but Sabalenka has nothing to lose now and comes out on top in a forehand cross-court face-off! 0-15. But Rybakina sees Sabalenka’s aggression and raises it with a fearhand of a forehand down the line! 15-all. 30-15. The crowd rise; Rybakina definitely still has the majority of the Melbourne support. But a tame second serve and Sabalenka slashes it away! 30-all… will it be championship point or break point? Championship point, because Rybakina finds her first serve when it matters! And then another to close out victory! Rybakina has come from a break down in this final set to avenge her defeat by Sabalenka in the 2023 final and claim her first Australian Open title and second grand slam!
Third set: Sabalenka 4-6, 6-4, 4-5 Rybakina* (*next server)
“Don’t worry, positive, keep hitting,” are the words of Rybakina’s coach as Sabalenka advances to 30-0. Rybakina hears the instructions and booms a backhand, but it’s a case of bust for the Kazakhstani. So it’s 40-0. And Sabalenka holds to 15, to force Rybakina to serve this out.
Third set: Sabalenka* 4-6, 6-4, 3-5 Rybakina (*next server)
After break points in the past three games, Rybakina would love a game without any jeopardy here. If it’s possible to have a game without any jeopardy, when you’re serving at 4-3 in the final set of a grand slam final. But anyway, from 15-all, Rybakina’s first serve sets up a short, sharp point, and it’s 30-15, then 40-30. And Sabalenka is swiping her hand into the air and bouncing her racket off the court when Rybakina moves to within one game of victory.
Rybakina breaks: Sabalenka 4-6, 6-4, 3-4 Rybakina* (*next server)
This is now SO tense. And Sabalenka looks SO tight as she makes the error for 15-30. And then nets her backhand for 15-40! That was agonising .. it clipped the net tape before bouncing back on to her side of the court. Rybakina misses on the first break point … but Sabalenka smashes a routine forehand into the net on the second! Rybakina, from 3-0 down in this set, is now just two games away from her first Australian Open title!
Third set: Sabalenka* 4-6, 6-4, 3-3 Rybakina (*next server)
But the problem for Rybakina is that she’s still not landing enough first serves, and that gives Sabalenka the chance to get to 30-40. Sabalenka gets another look at a second serve on the break point … and cracks a cross-court backhand return … some in the crowd think it’s caught the sideline, but it’s just wide! A reprieve for Rybakina. And she makes the most of it, taking the next two points to hold.
Rybakina breaks back: Sabalenka 4-6, 6-4, 3-2 Rybakina* (*next server)
The energy Vukov was demanding is on full display as Rybakina zips to 0-15 with a forehand winner – then 15-30 – and then 15-40 with a backhand that she absolutely nails down the line! Two break-back points … the pair go down the middle at each other … and Sabalenka surrenders surprisingly meekly with a poor netted forehand! She looks disgusted with herself. They’re back on serve and Sabalenka must quickly refocus is she’s to become a three-time Australian Open champion.
Third set: Sabalenka* 4-6, 6-4, 3-1 Rybakina (*next server)
A rare drop shot from Sabalenka at 15-all. It’s well-disguised and Rabalenka can’t chase it down in time. “You need energy! There’s no energy!” screams Rybakina’s coach when 15-all develops into 30-all. Can Sabalenka carve out a chance for a double break? No, because Rybakina holds from there to end a run of five games on the spin against her.
Third set: Sabalenka 4-6, 6-4, 3-0 Rybakina* (*next server)
A hint of danger for Sabalenka at 15-30 but a big serve temporarily gets her out of trouble and she restores parity at 30-all; how Rybakina must wish she could rely on that weapon herself right now. But Sabalenka then blinks with an errant forehand and Rybakina has her first break point since game one of the first set! A huge serve … and Sabalenka steps forward to bury the short ball! That was CLUTCH. And Sabalenka surges through the next two points, securing the game with a nerveless smash. This is still only one break, but Rybakina is still to get on the scoreboard in this decider.
Sabalenka breaks: Sabalenka* 4-6, 6-4, 2-0 Rybakina (*next server)
Sabalenka smokes a backhand return winner for 15-all … and runs around her backhand for an inside-in forehand winner for 30-all! Sabalenka is upping the ante … one of the longest rallies of the match plays out, 16 shots, they’re taking lumps out of each other … and Sabalenka finds the angle to finally end things with a backhand blast! 30-40, break point … and Sabalenka gobbles up the second serve to break! Rybakina made only one out of six first serves in that game, and Sabalenka took full advantage. For the first time in this final, the world No 1 has the lead.
Third set: Sabalenka 4-6, 6-4, 1-0 Rybakina* (*next server)
So who wins from here? Given Sabalenka’s stats and status, I’m siding with her – just – but this is absolutely not a given, and Rybakina reminds Sabalenka of that with a punchy strike at 15-all. Though Sabalenka assumes control from there, taking the next three points for the hold. She hasn’t faced a break point since the opening game of this match.
Sabalenka preserves her record of winning at least a set in her past 113 grand slam matches. She hasn’t lost a slam match in straight sets since the 2020 US Open. And remember, this is her fifth final in six majors. Her numbers are unrivalled at present. Both players take their leave … but Sabalenka is back on court much quicker than Rybakina; having seized the momentum, she wants to get on with this. Rybakina eventually returns, still looking so calm, even though you wouldn’t blame her if she’s falling apart inside. She’ll be seeing that missed drop shot in her nightmares tonight if Sabalenka goes on to win this.
Sabalenka wins the second set 6-4
A collective gasp on the opening point as Rybakina, halfway up the court, makes a mess of an attempted drop shot. And Sabalenka smites a forehand winner for 0-30! And the first serious fault lines appear on Rybakina’s side of the net as her forehand whistles wide! 0-40, three set points; win one of these and Sabalenka will take this to a decider. And Sabalenka strikes on the first! Out of nowhere Sabalenka has not only snatched a break but the second set. And – just like the remarkable men’s semi-finals yesterday – this is going the distance.
Second set: Sabalenka 4-6, 5-4 Rybakina* (*next server)
Sabalenka puts down the hammer and holds to 15. Back to you, Elena …
Second set: Sabalenka* 4-6, 4-4 Rybakina (*next server)
Credit to Sabalenka, she let her emotions get the better of her in several crucial moments last year, including in the Australian Open final against Madison Keys, the French Open final against Coco Gauff and the Wimbledon semi-final against Amanda Anisimova. But despite the force of what she’s facing here, she’s maintained a relative state of emotional equilibrium for her, though Rybakina looks even more composed as she eases to 15-0, 30-0, 40-0, game.
Second set: Sabalenka 4-6, 4-3 Rybakina* (*next server)
Oooohs and aaaaaahs and gasps and screams as both players face off at the net and Sabalenka emerges victorious. It gives her 40-15 on serve, but she’s waving her arms in the air in frustration rather than celebration when she double faults for 40-30. Perhaps she was still refocusing after the previous point. Another missed first serve … she makes the second … but Rybakina reads it and drills a backhand return winner down the line! Deuce. Advantage Sabalenka. Game Sabalenka, when Sabalenka backs up a stinging, snarling first serve by hurtling forward and dispatching an easy winner.
Second set: Sabalenka* 4-6, 3-3 Rybakina (*next server)
Rybakina is dragging Sabalenka right and left and right and left at 30-15 – and Sabalenka, usually the dictator rather than the defender, makes the error. The indignity of it all! Rybakina goes on to hold to 30. And fancy reading Tumaini’s preview of the men’s final? Sure you do:
Second set: Sabalenka 4-6, 3-2 Rybakina* (*next server)
Rybakina did have a few wobbles against Jessica Pegula in the semi-finals before getting over the line, when her forehand in particular went off the boil, but she’s showing no signs of tension so far, and is pushing an exasperated Sabalenka at 40-30 on the world No 1’s serve before Sabalenka squeezes through to hold.
Second set: Sabalenka* 4-6, 2-2 Rybakina (*next server)
During her defeat by Rybakina at WTA Finals in November, Sabalenka was caught on camera saying to her team “once a year even a stick shoots” of her opponent. I wonder what her current assessment of Rybakina is; maybe she’d show a bit more respect for what Rybakina is doing here. Anyway … Sabalenka holds to 15 … and then Rybakina does the same. Despite a double fault in that game, Rybakina’s first-serve percentage is rising, which could be ominous for Sabalenka if Rybakina moves closer to the finish line.
Second set: Sabalenka* 4-6, 1-1 Rybakina (*next server)
Rybakina has probably shaded the support from the crowd so far, perhaps because they see her as the underdog, so it’ll be interesting to see if they switch loyalties in this set now that she’s ahead. They’re certainly cheering when Sabalenka gets herself to 15-30 on Rybakina’s serve – but then they’re applauding just as loudly when Rybakina runs through the next two points for 40-30. But Sabalenka propels herself into the night sky and lets off some fireworks with an airbound backhand return winner for deuce! Cue one of the loudest roars from Sabalenka tonight. And then a huge “COME ONNN!” after she crunches a forehand winner to secure a break point. Rybakina decides it’s time for a change of tack and comes to the net to dismiss the danger. But here’s a second break point … Rybakina denies her again, this time with a forehand thunderbolt … then a third BP … and now with a strike of lightning Rybakina rips a backhand winner! From there Rybakina holds, after the longest game of the final so far.
Second set: Sabalenka 4-6, 1-0 Rybakina* (*next server)
Rybakina is such a formidable frontrunner, and has won her past 23 matches after taking the opening set. But Sabalenka will no doubt remember that she lost the first set 6-4 in their 2023 Australian Open final – before coming back to win in three. There’s some intense tactical debate between Rybakina and her coach between sets – Sabalenka meanwhile takes herself off court for a few minutes to regroup – and returns for a no-nonsense hold to 15. A far more assured start from Sabalenka in this second set than she managed in the first.
Rybakina wins the first set 6-4
Sabalenka biffs away a backhand return winner on the opening point to make things a little uncomfortable for Rybakina. Not that you’d know it; Rybakina’s face betrays no emotions, whatever the state of play. Rybakina recovers for 30-15, then advances to 40-30 when Sabalenka smacks her return into the net. So it’s set point … and Sabalenka eventually errs! Rybakina takes the first set – celebrates with a typically understated clenched fist – and it’s the first set Sabalenka has lost not only this tournament but this year.