It’s no secret that the Jays will use Cease as a main arm in their rotation, as the strikeout wizard should be one of the key arms relied upon alongside Kevin Gausman, Trey Yesavage, and Shane Bieber when he’s ready to go.
With the assumption that Bieber won’t be out long-term, the Jays coaching staff have a few arms to pick from to round out the group that all boast the pedigree to earn a look as a starter. Assuming that only one spot remains after the pitchers mentioned above are slotted in, there’s room for only one spot up for grabs between:
- Cody Ponce
- Jose Berrios
- Eric Lauer
It’s no secret that the player on the outside looking in is Lauer, who is likely going to be the club’s long man once again heading into 2026.
The southpaw is coming off a career year for the Jays, where he saved the club after injuries hampered the rotation, with Lauer making 15 starts across 28 total appearances to the tune of a 3.18 ERA and a 3.85 FIP across 104 2/3 innings.
Eric Lauer first spring start:
– 20 pitches /13 strikes
– no game plan just wanted to get into compete mode
– as far as executing, left too many pitches up in the zone
– legs were shaking during the game he was so amped for his start
“Felt like I had restless leg syndrome”
The 30-year-old is easily part of the starter conversation if someone goes out long term, especially since Bowden Francis is out for the year with an elbow injury, but even he may have to wait a turn or two, given the current Jays’ depth.
That leaves both Ponce and Berrios fighting for that pivotal last spot, which doesn’t seem like an easy decision at this time.
Berrios has the history behind him when it comes to starting, but he’s coming off a rough 2025 season both on and off the field. The right-hander was inconsistent on the mound and finished with a 4,65 FIP across 166 innings, which is his lowest mark since 2017 (where he split time between the big leagues and minors).
The World Series situation is likely water under the bridge at this point, as all the conversations that needed to be had seem to have taken place, but it will be tough to see Berrios return to the rotation if he continues to struggle on the mound.
He wasn’t stellar in his Spring Training debut, seeing a diminished velocity while allowing two earned runs across 2 2/3 innings, but the small sample size only becomes concerning if he doesn’t find a way to reverse the trend. To say he’s not worthy of a rotation spot after one start is a quick shot from the hip, but a few starts posted together where the velocity stays down and opponents keep plating runs will start a bigger conversation, barring a George Springer-like turnaround last season.
This is where Cody Ponce could surpass the Puerto Rican product on the depth charts, as the right-hander is coming off an MVP campaign in Korea that saw him ink a 3-year, $30 million pact with the Jays this winter.
Ponce could start the year in the bullpen if the Jays feel like going with the experience in Berrios and wading back into the MLB waters with their new righty, but a strong spring could change matters as the Jays chase another pennant and postseason run. Ponce was an ace in his lone season in Korea, but he will need to prove that his 1.89 ERA and 12.6 K/9 can translate back in the big leagues, starting this spring.
One way the Jays can alleviate this issue is by running with a six-man rotation, which has its own set of pros and cons. Moving Berrios or Lauer for an established reliever is another tactic the front office could pursue, although that comes with its own set of challenges.
The Blue Jays were reportedly open to trading Berrios this winter, but he remains with the organization heading into the spring. His remaining dollars, down 2025 season, and pending player opt-out complicate matters on the trade front. The Jays also don’t possess a ton of starting depth beyond the options mentioned above, which puts the organization in a tough spot if Bieber continues to battle an elbow issue and another starter heads to the IL.
The Jays may also be cautious with Yesavage this season after he pitched 100+ innings last season, which is why he won’t make his spring training debut until next week as he continues to ramp up. Toronto doesn’t appear to have Yesavage on some sort of innings or pitch limit this year, although bringing some sense of normalcy has been documented by manager John Schneider this spring. This would point to keeping Lauer around over Berrios on a trade front basis, watching the southpaw make the odd start or two in place of Yesavage when the weeks become long.
Overall, the best-case scenario sees either Berrios or Lauer departing this spring, more so towards Berrios over the swingman.
Toronto doesn’t have to panic sell either player by any means – there may be a player or two in the bullpen with some hurt feelings – but acquiring an established reliever to support the relief corps might be a better play than having a starter making too much money (in Berrios’ case) wasting away in a middle relief capacity or selling high on Lauer for the same return means.
The Jays will run the risk that their depth gets tested in Adam Macko and Ricky Tiedemann lurking in Triple-A, should either player be traded, or the Jays turn to a veteran free agent towards the end of the spring, whether that’s Scherzer or another name.
Keeping Lauer over Berrios helps resolve this potential issue, but only time will tell this spring to see how the Jays’ rotation picture shakes out.