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F1 MATHS: What does the boxplot diagram reveal about the pecking order in Shanghai?

F1 MATHS: What does the boxplot diagram reveal about the pecking order in Shanghai?
By Balazs Szabo on

The Shanghai Sprint offered another view of the competitive hierarchy under the all-new technical regulation through mean lap‑time distributions, stint‑by‑stint consistency, and team‑level strategy comparisons.

The diagram’s global race‑pace data, sorted by mean lap time, shows that Mercedes retained the strongest overall pace, but their advantage was far smaller than in qualifying.

George Russell’s mean lap time set the reference point for the field, with his median and mean values tightly aligned and his lap‑time spread among the narrowest in the chart. His smoothed lap‑by‑lap curve remained consistently below the 100‑second mark for most of the 18‑lap run.

Ferrari followed closely. Both Charles Leclerc and Lewis Hamilton recorded mean lap times within roughly 0.2–0.3 seconds per lap of Russell, reflected in Ferrari’s +0.24 value in the two‑stop team comparison table.

Hamilton’s and Leclerc’s box plots, however, show wider interquartile ranges and more outliers, indicating higher tyre degradation. The Monegasque’s stint, for example, shows a median lap time only slightly slower than Russell’s, but with a visibly larger whisker spread. This aligns with the observation that Ferrari could match Mercedes for several laps but did so at the expense of tyre life.

How did the midfield teams compare to each other?

The most striking individual deficit appears in Max Verstappen’s data. His mean lap time was approximately 1.8 seconds per lap slower than Russell’s benchmark, placing him fourth among the two‑stop teams with Red Bull’s +1.80 value.

His lap‑by‑lap curve sits consistently above the 101‑second line, and his box plot shows both a higher median and a larger distribution than the front‑running teams. In contrast, Liam Lawson produced one of the most efficient stints of the sprint.

Despite using one fewer tyre set, his mean lap time was only marginally slower than Verstappen’s, and his lap‑time distribution remained compact, with fewer outliers and a stable median around the mid‑100‑second range.

The midfield displayed notable variation depending on strategy. In the two‑stop category, McLaren ranked third at +0.68, followed by Red Bull, Alpine (+2.44), and Cadillac (+3.28).

Among one‑stop runners, Racing Bulls led with +2.04, followed closely by Haas (+2.31), Williams (+2.40), Audi (+2.43), and Aston Martin (+2.96). These values highlight how tightly grouped the midfield was, with less than one second separating the top five one‑stop teams.

The lap‑by‑lap smoothing graph reinforces these patterns. Mercedes and Ferrari lines remain clustered at the front, with Russell and Leclerc consistently below the 100.5‑second threshold in the early laps.


GP Chinaprevious

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