Winning Formula 1 pre-season testing has rarely translated into world championship glory. Could the same pattern repeat itself in 2026?
Ferrari showed during the Bahrain winter tests that it intends to fight for the 2026 F1 world championship. The race pace demonstrated by Charles Leclerc revealed an SF-26 that appears gentle on its tyres, with impressive degradation management over long runs. The strong one-lap performance displayed during the final afternoon of testing added another positive signal for the Scuderia. However, history suggests that being fastest at the end of winter testing does not necessarily mean lifting the trophy in December.
The Maranello-based team knows this all too well, having suffered bitter disappointments in past seasons when its car looked dominant in testing. One striking example remains 2019, when the SF90 topped pre-season testing and even prompted bold predictions from Sebastian Vettel, only for the car to prove flawed in several key areas once the championship began.
The statistic that raises concerns
And 2019 is far from the only example. Looking back just one year, in 2025 the fastest car in winter testing was Williams, with Carlos Sainz setting the benchmark (he had also been quickest in testing in 2024). Yet Williams never became a genuine title contender, aside from two podium finishes claimed by the Spaniard.
Since the start of the hybrid era in 2014, only twice has the driver who topped pre-season testing gone on to win the world championship in the same year. On both occasions, it was Max Verstappen, who managed the feat in 2021 and 2022. Interestingly, Lewis Hamilton, even during his dominant years with Mercedes, was never “winter champion,” highlighting how the Brackley-based team often preferred to keep its true performance hidden during testing.
The statistics look slightly better when considering teams rather than drivers, but the numbers remain limited. On four occasions since 2014, the team that impressed most in testing went on to secure the title: Mercedes in 2015 and 2020, and Red Bull in 2022 and 2023. Even so, it is still a relatively low figure, underlining once again how pre-season testing is primarily about development programmes and data gathering rather than outright lap times.
Ferrari will hope to break this trend and overturn what feels like a modern Formula 1 taboo. The goal for 2026 is clear: to bring back to Maranello a world championship that has been missing for 18 long years. Whether the promising signs from Bahrain testing will translate into real title success remains one of the biggest questions heading into the new F1 season.
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