The “godfather” of analytics, Dean Oliver (Basketball on Paper), triggered an explosion of mathematical “explanations” for winning.
There’s a mindset of “you know it when you see it” and another of “you know it when you measure it.” Every game sums a mass of individual possessions.
“Everybody knows that” became quantitative (measurable). For the less analytically-inclined, a brief review.
1. Four Factors (SPCA – shoot, protect the ball, crash, attack the basket)
More recent analysts have emphasized “differential” shooting, turnovers, rebounding, and free throws.
1. “Efficiency Dominance” (Shooting + Turnovers)
This is statistically powerful. Shoot a higher Effective Field Goal percentage than your opponent and turn the ball over less, you win the “points per possession” battle on both fronts.
2. The “Possession Powerhouse” (Turnovers + Offensive Rebounding)
Ideal for teams without elite shooters. This formula focuses on volume. If you win both of these, you will almost certainly take significantly more field goal attempts than your opponent.
3. “Physical Dominance” (Rebounding + Free Throw Rate)
For teams with a dominant “inside-out” game.
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Why it works: By winning the glass and getting to the line, you put the opponent’s best players in foul trouble and create “easy” points. This slows the game down and is often a winning formula in the playoffs when shooting percentages naturally dip.
4. “Pure Scoring” (Shooting + Free Throw Rate)
This combination focuses entirely on Points Per Shot.
2. Effective field goal percentage (EFG%)
Efficient teams take and make better shots. If all your shots were made twos then your EFG% would be 1.00. If the same applied for threes, then 1.50. But that doesn’t happen.
Let’s use a real-world example. A team shoots 1 for 9 on threes and 2 for 4 on twos in a quarter with six turnovers on other possessions.
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Coach Auriemma recently argued that the low shooting percentages on three in the tournament creates problems for many teams.
3. Net Rating (point differential per 100 possessions)
This creates multiple inferences. Coach Wooden’s adage, “Basketball is a game meant to be played fast” holds true when you have great talent. More talent, higher net rating, bigger value for more possessions.
It also means that playing at a slower pace makes more sense for less dominant teams.
4. Assist to turnover ratio (possession ending)
Assists are part of positive possession enders (baskets). Turnovers are negative possession enders (zero percent possessions). Pete Carril said, “The quality of the shot relates to the quality of the pass.” Doc Rivers calls bad shots “shot turnovers.” Assists build dreams and turnovers destroy them.
Top NBA teams in assist-to-turnover ratio. Maybe what we should also know is which teams have the lowest assist-to-turnover ratios allowed. Who doesn’t allow assists while forcing turnovers?
I’m sure the data is there, but proprietary.
Look at ‘stopping threes, forcing turnovers, and defensive rebounding percentage.
What I can’t find are ‘clean data’ on “team possession ending” via a sum of turnovers forced, defensive rebounding, charges taken, and so forth.
5. Net Points (differential offensive and defensive rating) may be supplanted by net points.
Net Points, evaluates individual performance by assigning credit and blame for every play (rebounds, shots, turnovers) based on difficulty and impact.
For the 2024-2025 NBA season, the top ten leaders in Net Points are:
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Nikola Jokic: +427 (Offense: +365, Defense: +61)
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Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: +345 (Offense: +304, Defense: +40)
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Karl-Anthony Towns: +203 (Offense: +164, Defense: +39)
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Jayson Tatum: +183 (Offense: +134, Defense: +49)
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Alperen Sengun: +181 (Offense: +71, Defense: +111)
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Jarrett Allen: +169 (Offense: +105, Defense: +65)
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Domantas Sabonis: +167 (Offense: +127, Defense: +40)
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Giannis Antetokounmpo: +164 (Offense: +107, Defense: +57)
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Jaren Jackson Jr.: +162 (Offense: +118, Defense: +44)
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Donovan Mitchell: +153 (Offense: +151, Defense: +2)
Based on the latest data from ESPN Analytics for the 2025-2026 season, the top leaders in Net Points are:
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Nikola Jokic: +442 (Offense: +380, Defense: +62)
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Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: +360 (Offense: +318, Defense: +42)
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Alperen Sengun: +195 (Offense: +80, Defense: +115)
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Karl-Anthony Towns: +190 (Offense: +150, Defense: +40)
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Jayson Tatum: +188 (Offense: +138, Defense: +50)
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Giannis Antetokounmpo: +185 (Offense: +125, Defense: +60)
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Domantas Sabonis: +178 (Offense: +135, Defense: +43)
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Jaren Jackson Jr.: +175 (Offense: +125, Defense: +50)
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Donovan Mitchell: +168 (Offense: +165, Defense: +3)
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Jamal Murray: +160 (Offense: +140, Defense: +20)
We don’t need “exotic” statistics to improve. Apply “actionable” stats (don’t let bad shooters take threes and emphasize valuing the ball). More shots via fewer turnovers and a higher percentage of quality shots translate to more success. We found that merely tracking (shot charts and turnovers) raised accountability.
Lagniappe. Excellent article on making practice more competitive. Worth printing and sharing with players.