The consensus seems to be that there is a massive drop-off in this year’s NFL Draft after Fernando Mendoza and Ty Simpson, but just a year ago, LSU’s Garrett Nussmeier was projected as a first-rounder. However, Nussmeier suffered a significant abdominal injury while training before the season, which severely affected his ability to throw the ball. The result was a nightmare season that ended with him getting benched.
This season, Simpson had a lower-back injury and an abdominal strain. If we are to believe that injuries caused Simpson’s play to drop off after eight games, then shouldn’t we give him the benefit of the doubt? For me, as a prospect, Nussmeier is closer to Simpson than Simpson is to Mendoza.
Aside from injuries muddying up the evaluation for both players, they are around the same size (Nussmeier is 6-feet-2, 203 pounds; Simpson is 6-feet-1, 211 pounds), which is below the threshold you want for NFL quarterbacks. At their best, both have high-level reps executing pro-style concepts and completing difficult throws into the middle of the field. Both have the athleticism to escape from muddy pockets but can be affected by pressure. And both have shown excellent ball-placement skills, but also have some bad misses on the tape. Both are sons of coaches and their strong fundamentals reflect that. Though Simpson gets the nod in my overall rankings, their profiles share many similarities.
I already published my Simpson scouting report, so let’s dig into Nussmeier’s tape.
Where Nussmeier differs from Simpson is that he’s more of a gunslinger. Both make throws to the middle of the field into tight windows on progression reads, but Nussmeier is more willing to chuck the ball deep and give his receivers a chance. There is proof of concept of his ability to execute pro concepts, getting through his reads and making accurate throws into tight windows in the middle of the field.
On this play against Clemson, the Tigers’ defense used a zone pressure to try to fool Nussmeier. They blitzed the nickel to make it look like the zone was vacated for a “hot” throw, but had a linebacker sprint over to quickly take away the hot. Nussmeier saw the pressure, knew he was protected and waited for his receiver to get past the linebacker into the second window. With his quick release and precise timing, Nussmeier was able to fit the ball between three defenders.
Here, LSU had two receivers running vertical from Nussmeier’s left side. The defense was in quarters, meaning the corner would cover the outside receiver on a vertical, and the safety would take the slot on a vertical. Nussmeier just had to confirm the safety would lock onto the slot before throwing the post over the top. Nussmeier saw the safety drop inside of the slot with his eyes fixated on him, so he knew he would have the post. He threw the ball with touch and put it in a great location for his receiver to make a play.
On this next play, the Ole Miss defense showed three deep before the snap but dropped into a Tampa-2 zone with two deep safeties — the middle safety playing the hole. The offense had dagger called (through route, dig combo). The defense dropped eight, so they had an extra player underneath in the middle of the field, which made the windows tighter. The extra middle player stayed inside with the slot running the through route. The hook player dropped outside, which opened up a hole for the dig route. Nussmeier quickly got to this third read and drilled a pass into a tightly packed zone.
Nussmeier has an excellent understanding of the pressure plan (how to handle blitzes). He often knew when he was protected against the blitz and could get through his progressions normally, or when he had to throw hot. In the last two seasons, against the blitz, he had a 0.22 EPA per dropback (elite) and threw for 17 touchdowns to four interceptions.
Here, LSU was in empty (no backs in the backfield). The defense blitzed, and they had only one linebacker in the box and played man coverage. Nussmeier knew with this blitz that there was no help inside, so he hit the inside slant in stride and his receiver did the rest.
Nussmeier didn’t look as mobile this season, and at his best, he isn’t as athletic as Simpson. However, he still has the mobility to get away from pass rushers and throws accurately on the run. There are times when he can get antsy and bail from pockets rather than try to manipulate the pocket with smaller movements. He doesn’t need a lot of space to throw because he’s a rotation thrower and can throw off-platform.
Nussmeier’s evaluation with teams will fluctuate depending on how much they are willing to excuse 2025, given that he looked like a totally different quarterback in 2024. He had some ugly moments last season, but it looked like his core injury zapped his arm strength and ability to throw deep, which likely caused a chain reaction that led to some bad decisions. Nussmeier does have a full season in which he looked like he could be a capable starting NFL quarterback, while Simpson only had a strong eight games. Nussmeier has a stronger arm and more of a gunslinger mentality, while Simpson is more athletic and has shown really high-level processing ability and footwork. I have both players graded similarly, and Simpson gets the nod, but a team may be able to get Nussmeier in the third round or later, while there is buzz that Simpson could go in the first round.