It may be time for Big Shield 2.
My latest book, Big Shield, delves into the potential pitfalls for pro athletes in an age of widespread gambling and ever-present temptations to make a little extra money for giving the right person a little extra information. Given the extent to which sports betting remains in its Wild West phase, the prediction markets have made things even wilder and far more western.
Consider this. NBA star Giannis Antetokounmpo announced on Thursday that he’s a shareholder in Kalshi, one of the leading companies fueling the prediction markets industry. It’s just a different term for gambling, with most of the propositions based on real-world events.
Given that this has happened — and in light of Giannis Antetokounmpo openly declaring his new status on social media — it seems to be something the NBA permits. Assuming the NBA had given the matter any thought.
It’s an obvious problem, to say the least, for anyone who becomes one of the topics for prediction-markets betting to own a piece of the prediction-markets company. Via Shane Garry Acedera of BasketballNetwork.com, $23 million was wagered on Kalshi regarding Antetokounmpo’s next team. Which has prompted accusations that Antetokounmpo stoked rumors of a potential trade in advance of Thursday’s deadline simply to fuel more action on Kalshi, to his direct financial benefit given his role as a shareholder.
For traditional gambling, the availability of inside information has already resulted in multiple controversies. In the more seemingly sophisticated (but ultimately no different) world of prediction markets, inside information seems to be even more prevalent — and even harder to regulate.
Take the Super Bowl halftime show, for example. On Kalshi, bets are being taken as to the first song in Bad Bunny’s set. He has rehearsed multiple times, including a Friday night dress rehearsal that is recorded and saved in the event there’s an issue on Sunday and the rehearsal needs to be televised in place of the live show. As a result, many people already know what the first song will be.
We’ve asked the NFL whether its players are permitted to acquire equity in companies that operate prediction markets. It’s possible that the industry has moved so quickly that no one has considered the need for rules, much less the proper contours of them.
The easiest solution would be to regard prediction markets for what they are, and to lump them within existing gambling policies. Which means that, for the NFL, the likely answer is no. If NBA rules allow players to own a piece of the sportsbooks, it may be time to draw a line between sportsbooks and prediction markets — since players who own a slice of a prediction-markets company will have every reason to rattle the cage of uncertainty as to their own futures in order to get people to bet on where their careers will lead.
The clock is ticking loudly for the sports leagues, the states, and the federal government to craft and implement effective regulations aimed at preventing the kind of behavior that threatens to undermine the integrity of the games and everything around them. Already, more and more fans believe games are rigged due to the prevalence of legalized gambling. The prediction markets craze feels like gambling on steroids, crack, and meth.
Here’s my own prediction. The current rules-are-there-ain’t-no-rules vibe will continue until something really big (and really bad) happens in the world of sports, at which time they’ll put in place standards that should have been present all along.
By then, the damage could be irreversible.