So the landscape of the National Hockey League’s Central Division changed drastically on Friday when the Vancouver Canucks gave up trying to retain star defenseman Quinn Hughes and instead moved him to the Minnesota Wild for a package of young players & picks.
The Winnipeg Jets already had to deal with juggernauts like the Colorado Avalanche & Dallas Stars in a fight for a playoff spot….and now the 3rd place Wild have added a difference maker like Hughes to help them stay in front of the rest of the division. Here is how ESPN has the standings going into the league’s Saturday slate of games:
As you can see, the top two spots in the Central are likely out of reach for Winnipeg if they hope to make a charge in the second half of the season. The Avs have been dominant to start the season, only dropping 2 contests in regulation and walking away with 82% of the available points in their first 31 games. The Stars have only been slightly worse, picking up 73% of the points in their opening 32 matches…and both clubs will probably continue down that path for the rest of the 2025-26 campaign.
The Wild are the only other team in the division to pull somewhat away from the rest of the pack, with their 63% point rate ahead of the Blackhawks (51%), the Mammoths (50%), the Jets (48%), the Blues (47%), & the Predators (47%). By adding a difference maker like Hughes to Minnesota’s roster, the Wild’s management is signaling that they are serious about locking up the final playoff spot in the Central Division. As it stands now, they hold a comfortable lead on the franchises chasing them and they hope the recent transaction will help them create an even bigger buffer.
If successful, the remaining 5 Central teams will have to switch their focus to a wildcard spot, so let us take a look at ESPN’s standings to see what hope each squad has:
Before I get to the wildcard discussion, I figured I would briefly touch on the Pacific Division. The standings aren’t as set in stone at the top of the westernmost franchises, with the Vegas Golden Knights & Anaheim Ducks tied for the top (and a record equal to the 3rd place Central team). The Knights are probably a safe bet to stay up near the top, even though the fact that they’ve needed extra time in 13 out of 30 games (43.3%) might cause some concern. I am not as certain that the youthful Ducks will be able to maintain their strong play throughout the entire 82 regular season games, but the fact that none of the other clubs are really pressing them might help them secure one of the 3 top spots in the Pacific.
The Los Angeles Kings & Edmonton Oilers were the other expected playoff teams in the division and both have hung around that plateau despite inconsistent play plaquing them early on. With the talent on the Oilers, you have to believe they will be able to inch their way back into the top 3….so will it be the young Ducks or the aging Kings that get that final spot?
Moving to the wildcard race, the loser of the above race will most likely have the best chance at grabbing the 7th playoff spot in the West, though a 3 game lead is certainly not insurmountable for the others. The San Jose Sharks are sitting in the final playoff position coming into today’s action, but I feel they are primed for a regression in the 2nd half of the season and could open up that race to pretty much all the chasing clubs. Youthful and full of talent, the Sharks -15 goal differential suggests that losses will start to come more frequently as the league gears up for the playoffs.
While the Vancouver Canucks & Calgary Flames seem unlikely to make a charge, the rest of the West teams could work their way back into contention if they can find a way to turn things around. I don’t have the time to focus on each of the 6 clubs, so instead will look at the three I think have the best chance to challenge SJ for that last wildcard spot. Leading the way are the Utah Mammoth, who currently sit just a half game back of the Sharks for that coveted 8th position. The Mammoth are the only team not in a playoff spot in the West that has a positive goal differential (+4), which suggests that they are playing well offensively & defensively and probability indicates that the club could be the one to usurp San Jose. Up next are the Chicago Blackhawks, who could pass the Sharks if they win the game in hand they have, are another youthful team on the rise. With a -3 goal differential, the Hawks have managed to show their fans that the rebuild might be finally over. However, an injury to Connor Bedard on the last face-off of their most recent game could hurt the team if the young star’s shoulder was significantly damaged by Brayden Schenn. Finally we get to our team, the Winnipeg Jets, whose -4 goal differential gives them the next best shot at making a charge for a wildcard spot. With the return of Connor Hellebuyck coming any day, it certainly isn’t out of the realm of possibility that the True Northers move out of the basement dweller area to the NHL’s murky middle. Would it be a good thing for the Jets’ long-term? Probably not….but it is definitely a possibility if the club’s leadership can get the players to buy in like they did last year.
Now that I have taken a look at our team’s outlook for the rest of the season, time to move on today’s contest between the Winnipeg Jets (14-15-1) and the Washington Capitals (18-9-4). These two franchises were battling for the Presidents’ Trophy in 2024-25, playing a pair of exciting games as the True Northers went on to win that race. This year only the Capitals are near the top of the standings and the clubs find themselves at opposite ends of the spectrum (4th best vs 4th worst). To add to the Jets’ woes, Washington is in the top 5 in both goals scored & allowed through 31 contests, so December’s tough schedule continues (64.3% vs last yrs playoff teams). Unfortunately for Winnipeg, it gets even worse in January (81.3%) before things ease up after the Olympic break (50%, 37.5%, $ 37.5% in final 3 months).
But that is jumping ahead….lets get back to today’s game (6 pm Central start) by taking a look at Winnipeg & Washington’s seasons by checking out ESPN‘s team & goaltender comparison numbers:
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The team stats above don’t provide a lot of hope for Jets’ fans…..maybe the Caps’ penalty killers not being great could be the silver lining? Washington tender Logan Thompson is making a strong case to be the starter for Team Canada at the Olympics and will be a tough challenge for Winnipeg’s shooters.
Lets move on & go check out PuckPedia‘s predicted line ups for tonight’s clash, which are based on the club’s last games:
WINNIPEG JETS LINE UP
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WASHINGTON CAPITALS LINE UP
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The Capitals do have a couple former Jets on their team, but defenseman Declan Chisholm is expected to be a healthy scratch and Pierre Luc Dubois has sustained a long-term injury.
Winnipeg’s coaches have reunited the statistically best forward unit of the 2025-26 campaign….no, not the Kyle Connor, Mark Scheifele, & Gabriel Vilardi line (50.5% xG & 60% actual G). That trio has played very well in 364 minutes of icetime, but it is the “Triple N” line that tops those stats categories. Vladislav Namestnikov centering Nino Niederreiter & Gustav Nyquist were a unit early in the year and in 47.5 minutes the veterans managed 64.4% of the xG’s, while also scoring 66.7% of the actual goals.
Will have to keep an eye on how the most recent line up plays against a very good hockey team. Can the Jets keep playing fairly well, like they did in losses to the Stars & Bruins? If they do, I certainly hope they can walk away with a couple points to end the 3 game losing streak they are on. While I am leery about Winnipeg working their way back into a playoff spot just to get swept in the 1st round of the post-season…I do want their efforts to be rewarded.
What are your expectations coming into today’s game? Thoughts on the Western Division standings and who may end up playing after the regular season? Let me hear it in the Comment section.
Go Winnipeg!!!!!
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POST-GAME INFO
Scoring Summary: (courtesy of ESPN)
FINAL SCORE:
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Game Stats: (courtesy of MoneyPuck)
Expected Goals (all):
Expected Goals (5on5):
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BOJA’S Post-Game Thoughts:
Will add the post-game information to this article approximately one hour after the game ends….to allow MoneyPuck the time to do their final adjustments to the stats. As ForgetTeemu reminded us in a recent comment….it is mightily cold here in the Peg, so stay warm in the -22 Celsius temperatures. Hold in there….it is supposed to be only -1 on Tuesday (yes, it will get cold again right away, but take the wins when they come).