Well, after the Winnipeg Jets dropped a 2-0 contest to the Chicago Blackhawks on Monday night, they have remained with the 2nd best odds for the upcoming 1st overall selection in June (a 13.5% shot at 1st overall, a 14.4% chance at the 2nd pick, odds of 30.7% for the 3rd selection, and 41.7% of the time will end up in 4th). Once again I simulated the lottery via Tankathon and here is who got the top 5 picks this time:
- Vancouver Canucks (25.5% odds)
- Chicago Blackhawks (9.5% odds)
- Winnipeg Jets (30.7% odds)
- St. Louis Blues (39.7% odds)
- Calgary Flames (24.5% odds)
This time the top of the draft played out much closer to the actual standings. The last placed Canucks ended up with the top selection, while the 4th place Blackhawks vaulted up into the 2nd overall spot, dropping the Jets & Blues down a spot.
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After Winnipeg dropped another game where they had a 60%+ Deserve to Win rating on MoneyPuck, our hockey team continues to find new ways to come out on the wrong end of games. During the Jets’ recent 4 game winning streak, the team was either able to snipe pucks by the opposing goalies or bang home the rebounds. The club had their chances to do that last night in Chicago too, but none of the skaters were able to finish the opportunities. You can’t win many games if you don’t score….and last night was no different.
After hopping on a plane immediately after the loss, the True Northers flew back to Manitoba, where the St. Louis Blues were already waiting for them. Another Central Division clash that finds a pair of franchises that met in Round 1 of last year’s playoffs, yet less than a year later the squads are now fighting for a top 5 draft pick. Quite the fall from grace for both teams.
The 31st place Jets (19-23-6) will be entering action on a 2 game losing streak, their 6th multi-game skid of the NHL’s 2025-26 campaign. Our hockey team has scored 144 goals this year (22nd in NHL), while allowing 150 (tied for 14th least), which is just 41 goals less than they allowed all of last season. Winnipeg would have to keep the opposition to 1.2 goals per contest through the remaining 34 games if they wanted to match that.
The Blues (19-22-8) have recently come out on top against some good opponents (CAR/TB), but they were blanked 5-0 by the Edmonton Oilers on Sunday. St. Louis hasn’t been very good at scoring or stopping goals this season, as their 120 red lights lit puts them in the 32nd spot in the NHL, while their defense is only slightly better (168 GA for 29th).
The two rival teams have only played once this season, when Winnipeg got blanked 1-0 by St. Louis in Missouri on December 17th, so that means that tonight will represent the first of the remaining 3 bouts. Today’s game at the Canada Life Centre will kick off at 7:00 pm Central and here is how the two clubs’ year-to-date stats compare, via ESPN‘s team & goaltender comparison numbers:
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The numbers show that the Jets have advantages in almost every category….except goaltending where the two clubs have been fairly equal and the penalty department, where the True Northers have spent 69 more minutes in the sin bin. This could ultimately be a battle of ineptitude at the CLC…but at least it should be equally contested if the data is correct.
Since this is a back-to-back situation for Winnipeg there won’t be any pre-game skate so we will have to rely on PuckPedia’s line up projections at this point:
WINNIPEG JETS LINE UP
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ST. LOUIS BLUES LINE UP
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Injuries abound for both franchises, with St. Louis missing a bunch of forwards (Robert Thomas, Oskar Sundqvist, Pius Suter, & Mathieu Joseph) and Winnipeg’s defense having a bunch of walking wounded (Neal Pionk, Colin Miller, & Haydn Fleury), made worse by rookie Elias Salomonsson picking up a bug that kept him out of the game versus the Hawks.
While the Jets & Blues may be without the same numbers of players, St. Louis certainly is missing the most impact player of the bunch, since Thomas is their leading scorer on the season (33 pts). Winnipeg has 4 players with at least that many points, Mark Scheifele (58 pts), Kyle Connor (56), Gabriel Vilardi (44), & Josh Morrissey (39).
Brayden & Luke Schenn get to play against each other once more, with both names floating around the trade block and a rumoured desire to be on the same team….this could be the last time that occurs. The clubs meet again in March & April, but that may be too late because both contests are after the trade deadline.
With so many things going wrong for the True Northers this season, it is easy to let a good thing slip through. So I will point out one thing I recently noticed…..Gabe is having himself a very good season despite the mess the team is in. Vilardi has even had to drop down to the 2nd line in an attempt to spark some offense from that unit…and yet he is still having a career season. 44 points in 48 games has him on pace for a career-high 75 points on the year. The 26 yr old has also been injury-free to date (knock on wood) and has to be in consideration for the best trade piece GM Kevin Cheveldayoff has ever brought to Manitoba.
Still nothing on Illegal Curve about today’s game…..so I will end it here. If I notice any updates on who the Winnipeg Jets will dress tonight, I will post it in the Comment section. Expecting Eric Comrie to get the start in net against the Blues….he had a 4 game stretch with save percentages at .800% or worse, but posted an impressive .958% versus the Los Angeles Kings in his last outing.
Go Winnipeg Jets!!!!!
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POST-GAME INFO
Scoring Summary: (courtesy of ESPN)
FINAL SCORE: Winnipeg Jets 3 St. Louis Blues 1
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Game Stats: (courtesy of MoneyPuck)
Expected Goals (all): STL 2.96 WPG 2.15
Expected Goals (5on5): STL 1.73 WPG 0.97
The Winnipeg Jets ended up losing the xG battle in both situations, but their performance at 5 on 5 was the most disappointing as the club failed to even earn a full expected goal at even strength.
Not sure I can recall another game where the Jets didn’t win the xG battle with even one forward line. It felt like not many scoring chances were being created watching it….and the numbers confirmed what my eyes were telling me. No even strength goals for either team in this one.
Scheifele, Morrissey, & Connor did manage to make an impact on the game when the clubs were not at even strength, as the trio of Jets combined for 8 points via the powerplay & an empty netter.
Winnipeg also didn’t have any defensive pairings with a positive xG’s rating in the game.
Maybe the one Jets player who performed admirably against the Blues for a full 60 minutes, Comrie posted strong numbers in back to back games now and concluded the match with a .957 save percentage.
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BOJA’S Post-Game Thoughts:
With the win over their Central Division rivals, the Winnipeg Jets have now split there season series with the St. Louis Blues with 2 more games to play. The True Northers also jumped over the Blues in the standings to move into the 30th spot in the NHL and are now 7 points back of the Western Conference’s final wildcard spot.
Our hockey team is now off until Thursday when they will host the defending Stanley Cup Champion Florida Panthers before finishing off the homestand on Saturday versus the Detroit Red Wings. 33 more games in the regular season to play.