On a very chilly Thursday in Manitoba, the defending President’s Trophy winners will be hosting the defending Stanley Cup Champions. Yet the NHL’s 2025-26 campaign has looked much different for the two franchises. The Winnipeg Jets almost led the NHL from start to finish last year, while the Florida Panthers hung around the middle of the league before surging up to the 11th best record by the season’s end. Of course, the Cats then turned it up a notch as they ran the table all the way to another Stanley Cup win, while the True Northers were up & down through two exciting playoff series before they were finally sent packing.
Scott Arniel & Paul Maurice’s fortunes are not looking as bright this year though, as injuries have helped to derail the two NHL teams’ seasons to date. Winnipeg’s troubles started even before the pre-season got underway when Jets’ captain Adam Lowry underwent a procedure on his hip. It then got much worse during the exhibition games, as our club lost Dylan Samberg & Cole Perfetti. Those all added up to GM Kevin Cheveldayoff’s off-season additions being exposed to a much higher level of competition than expected, setting players like Jonathan Toews & Gustav Nyquist up for poor starts to their Winnipeg careers. The Jets were somewhat holding their own early on, but then the injury to goalie Connor Hellebuyck really sent their season on a downward spiral. Those injuries have now all healed, but it really hasn’t improved the win-loss column all that much. Currently, Winnipeg is dealing with injuries to a trio of defensemen in Neal Pionk, Colin Miller, & Haydn Fleury, so their woes aren’t at an end yet.
Florida had to deal with two massive blows when stars Aleksander Barkov & Matthew Tkachuk were put on the Injured Reserve, expected to miss months, if not the entire season. Fortunately for the Panthers, Tkachuk was able to return after missing his team’s first 47 games and will be suiting up for his 2nd contest of the season tonight. Barkov’s fate remains murky, as the Cats have not officially put him on LTIR and thus end any chance he could return for the playoffs. That move could save them cap space, so we might get a better idea of the chance of Florida’s captain making a return in 2025-26 by the trade deadline. And those weren’t the only injuries the defending champs have had to deal with, as they are currently without one of their top defenders in Seth Jones and the aging rat Brad Marchand.
Despite the two teams in similar circumstances with only 5-7 points separating them from their Conference’s final wildcard spot, the media certainly believes in a Florida resurgence way more than they foresee Winnipeg making a charge. Obviously they are betting on Tkachuk’s return sparking something, but if we look at the Jets (20-23-6) and Panthers (25-20-3) stats this year, we can see a lot of shared problem areas:
What I take from the numbers for the entire season is that both Winnipeg & Florida are scoring at a like pace, while the Jets are slightly better at keeping the pucks out of their net. The Panthers have been solid creating scoring chances at 5 on 5 over the entire season, but those numbers have really plummeted in the past 10 contests to be on par with what the True Northers were putting up. The glaring difference is in the Goal Differential category, where Winnipeg actually has more goals for than against while the Cats are allowing way more to get by their tenders (once again, the last 10 games playing a big role in that).
Today’s game at the Canada Life Centre will kick off at 7:00 pm Central and here is how the two clubs’ year-to-date stats compare, via ESPN‘s team & goaltender comparison numbers:
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While Connor Hellebuyck hasn’t been playing to his normal standards this year, his +10 Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAE) rating is head & shoulders above the other potential starting goalies tonight. Florida starter Sergei Bobrovsky has struggled mightily to a -10 GSAE rating to date, while young Daniil Tarasov has been better (+1.6 GSAE). Eric Comrie’s strong performance in Winnipeg’s latest win has helped him to break even on the year (0 GSAE).
From what I could dig up, here are the line up projections at this point, via PuckPedia:
WINNIPEG JETS LINE UP
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FLORIDA PANTHERS LINE UP
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Good news for Jets’ fans, as rookie Elias Salomonsson will be back on the ice after getting over an illness that cost him a couple starts. That means fellow Manitoba Moose regular Isaak Phillips will get press box duty tonight with Cole Koepke, & Danny Zhilkin.
Running out of time as I have a busy day at work today…..so that will be all for now.
Go Winnipeg Jets!!!!!
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POST-GAME INFO
Scoring Summary: (courtesy of ESPN)
FINAL SCORE: Florida Panthers 2 Winnipeg Jets 1 (SO)
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Game Stats: (courtesy of MoneyPuck)
Expected Goals (all): WPG 2.54 FLA 1.75
Expected Goals (5on5): WPG 2.03 FLA 1.27
A rare great statistical night from the Lowry line as they dominated their competition by outshooting them 7 to 3.
Very good numbers from Winnipeg’s top 4 in this one, with only the Stanley–Schenn duo giving up more scoring chances than they created.
A solid outing for Hellebuyck, especially in overtime when the tender made a couple big saves to keep the game knotted.
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BOJA’S Post-Game Thoughts:
The Winnipeg Jets continue to pick up points, as they have collected at least 1 in 8 out of their last 10 contests. As a result, the True Northers now have the 4th worst record in the NHL, putting the Jets 6 points back of a wildcard spot. Winnipeg still would have to pass 5 other franchises to steal a spot in the post-season with 32 games left on the schedule.
Our hockey team will get a bit of a break as they will wait in Winnipeg until Saturday to host the Detroit Red Wings for a final home game before they head out on a 4 game road trip.