With the 1 point the Winnipeg Jets picked up against Florida, the team had moved 6 points back from the final wildcard spot in the Western Conference. Yet the NHL’s action on Friday night saw quite a few of the other franchises in the race pick up victories, so they will enter today’s contest versus the Detroit Red Wings a full 4 games back (8 pts) of playoff contention.
The True Northers are currently sitting with the 4th worst record in the league based on points earned, but rise to 5th when you go by points percentage, which happens to be the method our friends at Tankathon uses for their draft odds & mock lottery mode. Therefore, Winnipeg currently has an 8.5% shot at 1st overall, 8.6% at 2nd, a measly 0.3% shot at 3rd, no chance at 4th, 24.5% odds at 5th, the highest chance at ending up in 6th (44%), and the farthest they could drop is 7th (14.2%).
Running the mock lottery once again, here is how the top 7 finished:
- Chicago Blackhawks (7.5% odds)
- New York Rangers (9.5% odds)
- Vancouver Canucks (55.7% odds)
- St. Louis Blues (41.7% odds)
- Calgary Flames (29.8% odds)
- Winnipeg Jets (44% odds)
- Nashville Predators (44.4% odds)
This run didn’t work out great for the Jets as they ended up with the pick they had the highest odds to earn, likely allowing the top 4 forwards to go off the board before GM Kevin Cheveldayoff gets a chance to add to Winnipeg’s prospect pool. Both the Hawks & Rangers made decent jumps with Chicago going from 6th to 1st and New York shifting from 4th to 2nd. Disappointed with that result, I did hit the SIM LOTTERY button once again and the True North franchise earned the chance to draft the 2nd prospect in the 2026 NHL Entry Draft in that one. Unfortunately, there will be no re-do’s when Gary Bettman officially does the draw.
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Moving on to Saturday’s hockey action as the high flying Detroit Red Wings visit frigid Manitoba for a battle against the hometown Winnipeg Jets. This will be the last game in the Peg before the club heads out on a 4 game road trip that will see them face the New Jersey Devils, the Tampa Bay Lightning, a rematch versus the Florida Panthers, & a division clash against the Dallas Stars. Just as the Jets try to claw their way back into post-season contention, the NHL’s schedule is throwing difficult opponents at them.
Detroit & Winnipeg have seen their fortunes reversed in 2025-26, as the young Wings appear set to end a stretch of 9 straight seasons without a playoff appearance, while the Jets have fallen from President’s Trophy winners to holders of one of the worst records in the NHL. At totally opposite ends of the standings, the club from Michigan sits with the 4th best record as they challenge Tampa Bay for the top spot in the Atlantic Division and the Manitobans wallow with the 4th worst point total in the league.
With that large gap between the teams, you would suspect that there would be a large difference between their stats from this year…..yet that really hasn’t been the case. Here is how the two clubs’ year-to-date stats compare, via ESPN‘s team & goaltender comparison numbers:
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Detroit is doing very well in the win-loss column despite their offensive & defensive numbers being in the middle of the league. With a 162 Goals For (GF) and 158 Goals Against (GA), the Wings sit in 16th & 17th place respectively in those categories. The data even gets a bit worse when you focus on 5 on 5 play, with the NHL’s 19th best Expected Goals Percentage (48.91% xG’s) and the 24th best Actual Goals Percentage (47.45% aG’s).
Winnipeg’s statistics in comparison aren’t that much different, with their 148 GF (T-21st) and 153 GA (T-12th) near the middle of the NHL. At even strength, the Jets xG numbers are far from impressive (27th w/ 46.74%), but the aG% is much better (15th w/ 50.73%). That is the difference between the league’s 7th best shooting percentage at 5 on 5 for the True Northers (10.36%) and the Red Wings’ 29th ranked sniping capabilities (8.12%).
The goaltenders have also put up similar stats this season, as the acquisition of John Gibson has paid off for the club from Michigan.
From what I could dig up the Jets aren’t expected to make any changes, so here are the line up projections for both teams at this point, via PuckPedia:
WINNIPEG JETS LINE UP
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DETROIT RED WINGS LINE UP
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Winnipeg has gone 5-2-3 in their past 10 contests and Detroit have been hot with a 7-2-1 record. Both clubs are coming in off losses in extra time, so will be hungry to pick up a full 2 points this evening.
Other story lines include former teammates Jonathan Toews & Patrick Kane squaring off, former Jets returning to Manitoba in Andrew Copp, Mason Appleton, & Ben Chiarot, and a bunch of Winnipeg players with Michigan ties like Connor Hellebuyck & Kyle Connor.
The Manitoba Moose came close to beating the Wings’ farm team last night, but some laziness on the powerplay allowed the Grand Rapids Griffins to score a short-handed marker to pick up a 2-1 win. The two minor team affiliates will square off again on Sunday, as the Moose will look to hand them just their 4th regulation loss this year.
Go Winnipeg Jets!!!!!
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POST-GAME INFO
Scoring Summary: (courtesy of ESPN)
FINAL SCORE: Detroit Red Wings 5 Winnipeg Jets 1
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Game Stats: (courtesy of MoneyPuck)
Expected Goals (all): DET 3.06 WPG 2.02
Expected Goals (5on5): DET 2.33 WPG 1.78
Not sure how all 4 lines finished above 50% xG’s in the game, but for the most part the match was equally, if not enthusiastically contested. Of the above forward units, it was the Toews & Barron lines that ended up giving up a goal to the Wings. Of course, the 4th line also was the only one to put the puck in the net for the Jets.
The other even strength goals came against Scheifele & Connor with another player like Namestnikov and Vilardi on the wing.
Winnipeg’s top 4 played well at 5 on 5, with only the Morrissey–DeMelo allowing a Detroit goal. The rest of the action occurred versus the duo of Stanley & Schenn, who were on for the Jets’ sole marker but also there for 3 goals against.
Hellebuyck was doing alright until the entire team collapsed in the 3rd period. His year to date GSAE rating has now dropped below a positive double digit rating. Still seems to be searching for his game post-surgery.
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BOJA’S Post-Game Thoughts:
Another loss on the season keeps the Winnipeg Jets 8 points back of the Western Conference’s final wildcard spot. To add to their woes, the LA Kings picked up another win to tie them with the SJ Sharks at 55 points….and only 1 of those teams can fill the 8th position. With 31 games left in the season (5 until the Olympic break and 11 until the trade deadline), the True Northers will have to make up more than 4 games if they want to challenge for a post-season berth. Looking more & more unlikely each game….especially when you see how easy the Sharks’ remaining schedule is.
A rare two days off to deal with a head coach that just called his team’s effort tonight as “embarrassing“. Wonder what Scott Arniel has planned to try to spark some life into this club because this upcoming 4 game road trip might be a make or break section (NJ, TB, FLA, & DAL).