The Winnipeg Jets have 29 games left to play in the regular season….so this nightmare of a season is far from over at this point. Fortunately us fans will get a little break from having to watch our hockey team struggle, as the Olympics will shut down the NHL for three weeks. Just matches versus the Florida Panthers, Dallas Stars, & Montreal Canadiens to go before then. Once the league gets underway again, there will only be 10 days until the trade deadline is upon us, so GM Kevin Cheveldayoff will have to make the decision on whether the True North franchise will sell off assets in an attempt to set the Jets up for a better season next year.
Entering Saturday’s action, Winnipeg is tied for the 30th in team points….though if you go by winning percentage like Tankathon uses in their mock lottery simulations, then the Jets are sitting in 28th (5th best odds). That would give them the following odds in the upcoming Entry Draft lottery:
1st: 8.8% / 2nd: 8.9% / 3rd: 0.3% / 4th: 0% / 5th: 26.2% / 6th: 43.2% / 7th: 12.7%
So lets use the site’s lottery simulator once again to see how the top of the 2026 NHL Entry Draft played out with these probabilities:
- Winnipeg Jets (8.8% odds)
- New Jersey Devils (3.9% odds)
- Vancouver Canucks (56.6% odds)
- Calgary Flames (40.1% odds)
- St. Louis Blues (28.2% odds)
- New York Rangers (19.2% odds)
This mock worked out great for the Jets, as our club wins the big prize to earn the opportunity to select the first prospect in the Entry Draft. As we’ve seen, there is almost always one low odd club that ends up moving up the board and this time it was the Devils that leapt from 10th to 2nd.
I believe that is the sixth time I have ran this mock simulation based on where Winnipeg was in the standings and to date, the last place Vancouver Canucks have only won the 1st overall pick once while the Jets got very lucky in 2 of those. The True Northers also ended up with the 6th selection twice, while earning the 3rd & 5th spots once.
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Moving on to today’s matinee that features the Winnipeg Jets & Florida Panthers clashing at the Amerant Bank Arena in Sunrise. Both teams will be entering action on losing streaks after the Manitobans got outclassed by the Tampa Bay Lightning on Thursday and the Cats lost to the St. Louis Blues on the same night to increase their skid to two games.
These defeats are coming at bad times for two clubs chasing wildcard spots and they find themselves with similar deficits to make up in the final stretch of the regular season. Despite being tied for the 15th best record in the NHL, the Panthers are only 2 points closer to a playoff berth than the Jets are, with 8 and 10 points needed respectively to just get into a tie for the final wildcard spot. That shows how unbalanced the Eastern & Western Conferences are in 2025-26, with the East only having one team with less than 57 points while the West can put 6 franchises in that category.
Winnipeg (21-25-7) has scored the 23rd most goals this season (154), while limiting the opposition enough to be tied for the 13th least goals against (165). Florida (28-22-3) possesses the 19th highest scoring club (164) this year and have also struggled defensively by letting in the 21st fewest goals (174).
Injuries have played a big role in both clubs’ difficulties, as the Jets have been without Dylan Samberg, Adam Lowry, Cole Perfetti, Connor Hellebuyck, & Neal Pionk for stretches this year, while the Cats have seen star players like Seth Jones, Matthew Tkachuk, & Aleksander Barkov miss huge chunks of playing time.
To continue our look at the numbers…here is how the two clubs’ year-to-date stats compare, via ESPN‘s team & goaltender comparison numbers:
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The numbers above don’t seem to reflect what should be expected from the defending Stanley Cup Champions and defending President’s Trophy winners…..but such is the randomness of sports. With Tkachuk already back in the line up and Barkov starting to skate for a potential late season return, the fans in Florida will be way more optimistic that they can claim a playoff berth to give their team a shot at lifting three Cups in a row. Hope that Winnipeg will turn things around this year has long departed the cold province of Manitoba to be replaced with dreams of netting a high draft pick in June, which is why I run a mock lottery draft every time I write a new article.
No morning skates due to the early start time (3 pm Central), so here are the line up projections for both teams at this point, via PuckPedia:
WINNIPEG JETS LINE UP
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FLORIDA PANTHERS LINE UP
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It appears that the Jets will opt to sit Tanner Pearson and bring in press box regular Gustav Nyquist for today’s contest. Coach Scott Arniel also re-arranged the forwards at practice yesterday, swapping 2nd & 3rd line centers in what will likely be a vain attempt to spark some consistent secondary scoring.
Sounds like Florida will get a bit of a boost as uber-pest Brad Marchand is expected to return after missing a few games, though the other forward that is dealing with a day-to-day injury doesn’t appear to be ready yet as Anton Lundell should be in the press box for another contest.
Winnipeg has been led by Mark Scheifele (64 pts), Kyle Connor (61), & Josh Morrissey (46) this season and Florida have Sam Reinhart (52 pts), Brad Marchand (50), & Sam Bennett (42). The biggest difference between the teams is in the secondary scoring where the Panthers have 12 players with at least 20 points and the True Northers are limited to just 5 (two more players with 19).
That is about all that I have time for as I need to do some grocery shopping and then get ready for the Manitoba Moose game at 2 pm. Winnipeg’s minor league affiliate is in 3rd place in the Central Division and will be playing a 2 game weekend set versus the 6th place Rockford IceHogs, so a sweep might allow them to challenge the Chicago Wolves for 2nd in the division (and home ice advantage in the 2nd-3rd playoff series).
Moose tender Thomas Milic is having a good bounce back season after having a .877 save percentage last year. The 22 yr old has earned the 11th best save percentage (.910%) and Goals Against Average (2.42) in the AHL through 17 starts. The other masked man is also playing well, with Dominic DiVincentiis posting a .903 save percentage in his 21 games. Like their parent club, Manitoba has problems scoring goals and need to rely on playing a responsible 2 way game to limit the opposition’s chances. They do this fairly well and that typically gives the Moose a shot at winning most games this season. But it is a fine line too….meaning that while they seldom string together a bunch of losses, they also rarely pile up a bunch of wins in a row (did had a 6 game hot run in November).
Go Winnipeg Jets!!!!!
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POST-GAME INFO
Scoring Summary: (courtesy of ESPN)
FINAL SCORE:
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Game Stats: (courtesy of MoneyPuck)
Expected Goals (all):
Expected Goals (5on5):
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BOJA’S Post-Game Thoughts:
Got a lot of things on tap this weekend, but I hope to have the time to update this article with all the post-game information around 7 pm Central. Looks like Manitoba’s cold weather is finally be going away…first time we’ve seen the temps in the -10 to -15 Celsius range with the promise of a 0 Celsius day in the upcoming week. Hopefully that will be the last really frigid temperatures that we’ll have to deal with this winter. Have a good weekend everyone.