The National Hockey League had a light schedule for Friday, with only two games on the schedule…yet both outcomes had an impact on our franchise. With the St. Louis Blues’ overtime win against the Edmonton Oilers, the Winnipeg Jets fell from 27th to 28th in the standings and the Los Angeles Kings victory over the New York Islanders extended the gap to the Western Conference’s final wildcard spot to 7 points.
So the True Northers fell back on a night they weren’t even playing…….and now they have to face the league leading Colorado Avalanche to try to restore their post-season hopes. The Avs have been the cream of the NHL this season, amassing a whopping 97 points and are pace for a total of 124 for the full campaign, which is 8 more than the President Trophy winning Jets had last year. The two franchises could not be more different this season….
Winnipeg (26-28-10) will be entering the action on a 2 game losing skid, coming at a time when they had pulled close to a wildcard position to push the club closer to a top 5 draft pick than a playoff berth. The Jets’ 182 goals scored this year give them the NHL’s 25th best offense, while their 199 goals against put them in a tie for the 13th best defense. A worrisome sign for the Manitobans is their play at 5 on 5, as their 47.86% expected goals rate has them near the bottom of the league (25th).
Colorado (44-11-9) have been rolling along, winning 6 of their last 7 contests, as well as 8 out of their last 10. Not only are the Avalanche the NHL’s best team in the standings, their 246 Goals For and 160 Goals Against this season also hold the top spots. That is an insane +86 Goal Differential!! Also, the best indicator for future playoff success is a club’s Expected Goals rate during 5 on 5 play and the Central Division’s top team holds the 2nd best rate (56.24%). So the Avalanche are rolling right along and they just added Nazem Kadri (2 pts in 3 gms) at the trade deadline.
The stats are not promising for a Winnipeg Jets’ win this afternoon….here is how the two clubs’ year-to-date stats compare when you look at the head-to-head, via ESPN‘s team & goaltender comparison numbers:
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The True Northers lose in all the above categories…..except somehow in one surprising section. The high powered Colorado offense hasn’t resulted in a deadly powerplay somehow, as Winnipeg’s man advantage units have out-paced the Avs by 1.8% to date.
No morning skates today due to the 3 pm Central start time, so here are the line up projections for both clubs via PuckPedia based on the most recent games:
WINNIPEG JETS LINE UP
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COLORADO AVALANCHE LINE UP
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I really don’t see how the Jets can hold their own against the Avalanche this afternoon, especially since Dallas is only 5 pts back of the Central’s lead, so there is no reason for them to take their foot off the pedal. But that is why they play the games…..right?
It will be interesting to see what coaching decisions Scott Arniel and company make today, with back-to-back games this weekend and a much more winnable contest tomorrow versus the St. Louis Blues. Will the club sacrifice Eric Comrie to the hockey gods….allowing him to face the deadly Avalanche while saving Connor Hellebuyck’s next start for the Blues? Will the coaches realize that Ville Heinola is a better option on the 3rd pairing than Haydn Fleury? Or will they just keep doing the same thing over and over again, while hoping for better results?
I will readily admit that it was mainly injuries that derailed Winnipeg’s 2025-26 campaign….but that wasn’t the sole reason for the collapse. Off-season signings that didn’t pan out and bad roster decisions also played a role, in my mind. Sticking with the Mark Scheifele–Kyle Connor combo despite having enough top six play drivers in their line up is problematic to a point, but starting the year off with the only other healthy “elite” forward also playing with them was just asking for trouble. Shockingly, that led to the Jets becoming a “one line team” with almost no secondary scoring. Once Cole Perfetti returned and fully recovered from his ankle sprain, the move of Gabriel Vilardi to the 2nd line has helped spread out things more…..but so many other combinations have been left untried.
And now that the team is on the fence between making a run for a playoff spot and tanking for a good draft pick….the coaching staff refuses to break up the top 6 forwards to give young prospects like Isak Rosen and Brad Lambert a really good shot at making an impact. Maybe it is because they haven’t given up hope for the post-season and think this line up gives them the best shot at winning games?? But a 4% shot at the playoffs (via MoneyPuck) suggests to me that they should come to terms with the fact that wins aren’t the best thing for the long-term health of the franchise. And who knows how things will play out? St. Louis traded a bunch of players and inserted youth into their line up and all of a sudden they have won 7 of their last 9 games.
Let me hear how you think the Jets should handle the rest of the regular season? With only 2 permanent recalls left from the Manitoba Moose, it is not like the team could shut down a bunch of players……but they could try out new combinations and see what the impact of young, fast legs will have on the teams’ play to assist with the planning for next season.
Go Winnipeg Jets!!!!!
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POST-GAME INFO
Scoring Summary: (courtesy of ESPN)
FINAL SCORE:
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Game Stats: (courtesy of MoneyPuck)
Expected Goals (all):
Expected Goals (5on5):
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BOJA’S Post-Game Thoughts:
The afternoon start time should allow me to get the post-game stuff added to the article sometime tonight. I may be heading out for Sheppard’s pie at Fionn MacCool’s after the game, so it may not occur until closer to 9 pm Central.
28 NHL teams in action today, so the scoreboard & standings will be worth watching throughout the day. A lot of the franchises Winnipeg is jockeying with for position in the upcoming Lottery Draft are playing good teams, so I am not expecting many to pick up wins. Here is the matches to keep an eye on, with the team(s) we want to pick up points highlighted.
NYR @ MIN – Rangers currently tied with the Jets, but have played an extra game.
TOR @ BUF – Maple Leafs are up 5 pts on the Jets, but have played an extra 2 games. Plus have just lost Matthews for the season.
SJ @ MTL – Sharks are up 6 pts on the Jets and could increase the gap to the wildcard spot to 8 with a win and Winnipeg loss. Have also played one less game.
LA @ NJ – The Kings have the last wildcard spot and are 7 pts up on the Jets, but have played an extra game. The Devils are 4 pts up on the Jets with an extra game played. So a NJ win in extra time might be the best result here.
CGY @ NYI – The Flames have 3 pts less than the Jets and have played an extra game.
SEA @ VAN – The Kraken are 5 pts up on the Jets and could tied LA for the last wildcard spot with a win today. The Canucks are 14 pts back of Winnipeg and have pretty much locked up the #1 odds for the Lottery.
CHI @ VEG – The Blackhawks are 1 pt back of the Jets and have played an extra game.