We have our first big upset of the 2026 NCAA Tournament.
No. 12 seed High Point shocked No. 5 Wisconsin on the strength of 15 3-pointers and, also important for upsets, 13 offensives rebounds. Those extra possessions, and the 3-point barrage, are pivotal events in games that see underdogs topple favorites based on the historical upset research our Bracket Breakers team has performed across the previous 20 NCAA Tournaments.
High Point entered the Big Dance as the third most-likely underdog — seeded five or more lines below the favorite — to advance to the second round. And so they did. Can the Panthers keep it going? The short answer is yes, but there’s some nuance. (This is March Madness, after all.) Here are High Point’s odds for advancement, along with the upset odds for other Round 2 underdogs. That includes TCU, whose upset odds could actually be better than what our model foresees.
No. 4 Arkansas Razorbacks vs. No. 12 High Point Panthers
Upset Chance: 30.8 percent
As we posted before the first round, this matchup carried the highest potential upset of any second-round game in the West. But first …
Savor this: Before Thursday afternoon, High Point had never beaten an opponent from a top-4 conference, in the regular season or postseason, and the Big South teams had a 4-33 record in the NCAA Tournament. But the Panthers edged No. 5 Wisconsin in the first round thanks to a combination of factors our upset predictions model, Slingshot, saw coming from a mile away.
High Point secured more offensive rebounds than the Badgers (13-6) and committed fewer turnovers (6-10), leading to nine more shots from the field (74-65). And they kept taking those shots from long range — even when they fell behind by 10 points early, ultimately launching 40, count ‘em, 40 3s. Slingshot liked the Panthers’ formula, and liked the matchup they got, suspecting that Wisconsin’s weakness on the offensive boards and heavy reliance on outside shooting would combine to render the Badgers vulnerable.
Well, like Mom always said, if you pick a 12 to beat a 5, you may as well take them to beat the 4. High Point will now sling its bag on longshot rocks at Arkansas, and our model says the Panthers have one-in-three chance of knocking off another Goliath.
Slingshot sees John Calipari’s crew as a slightly better team than Wisconsin, but not one of the strongest teams in the country. The Razorbacks aren’t particularly dominant on the offensive rebounding (ranking 113th in the nation), and are notably weak on the defensive glass (ranking 207th).
The Panthers may not be able to steal possessions — nobody limits turnovers better than Arkansas — but should be able to build them on the boards. And though it might sound strange to say this about a small-conference underdog, High Point was able to exploit Wisconsin inside, not just from the perimeter, and might be able to do the same against Arkansas, which allows opponents to shoot 53.7 percent on 2-point attempts (ranking 239th).
And then there’s this: Of the 10 contests in our database that most resemble this matchup statistically, underdogs won five games, including the two most similar: No. 12 seed Richmond vs. Iowa in 2022 and No. 14 seed Oakland vs. Kentucky in 2024. There’s a gap of nearly 19 points per 100 possessions between Arkansas and High Point in our basic power ratings, so the path to another upset is narrow to be sure. But maybe to follow it, the underdog will need to walk like a … panther.
No. 1 Duke Blue Devils vs. No. 9 TCU Horned Frogs
Upset Chance: 10.1 percent
That gust of wind you felt around 5 p.m. ET on Thursday was Duke fans collectively exhaling after nearly losing to No. 16 Siena. But expect them to be wound just as tight on Saturday when they take on the Horned Frogs. Because these upset odds may be higher than they appear above.
Our model, technically gives TCU only a 10.1 percent chance of winning, but it’s basing that rating on a full-strength Duke squad. This version of the roster — minus Caleb Foster and Patrick Ngongba — is not what we’ve seen from Duke over the course of the season, despite having won all five games without that duo (counting the second half of the regular season finale against UNC).
Duke’s perimeter shooting and defense is compromised without Foster, while Ngongba’s absence has severely impacted its rim protection, rebounding and playmaking (he initiates much of Dukes’ offense from the top of the arc). Maybe the Blue Devils will get Ngongba back, but how effective will he be? Duke is not the analytical juggernaut it was before the injuries and, as a result, we believe the true odds of an upset are much greater than 10 percent.
That opinion is not just due to Duke’s potential weaknesses. TUC features many strengths that we see in successful underdogs, particularly when it comes to the possession game. The Horned Frogs force turnovers on 19.4 percent of possessions (35th in the nation) and give it away only 15.4 percent of the time (96th). They grab 34.3 percent of available offensive rebounds and only allow their opponents to collect 28.8 percent. They’re not a great shooting team (200th in effective field goal percentage), but they hit 9 of 23 3s against Ohio State in the first round, so they can go off on a given night. Add it all up and that’s much better than a 10 percent chance.