Hildeby time, Koblar impresses, and why Kiefer Sherwood is too risky of a trade target: Leaflets

The Leafs may have burned through their allowable slumps for the season, but now just two points back of the final Atlantic Division playoff spot, a pause can be put on the discussions of how much of the roster needs to be blown up.

The rise of Dennis Hildeby

Last season, Hildeby found his way into six games, all starts and all games that he’d play in their entirety. Two of those you could call good starts, and a third was an outing you’d accept from your backup netminder, but the other three appearances, especially the two against the Blue Jackets, showed a goaltender who needed more time before returning the NHL. Hildeby’s time in the AHL didn’t make his case for pushing for the NHL this season, and seemingly the Leafs didn’t need him to be pushing. Until now.

Circumstances have made Hildeby “the guy” at the moment and called for him being used earlier than expected this season. Woll’s leave of absence combined with Cayden Primeau not being capable of the backup role brought him to the NHL, and Stolarz’ injury has kept him here. Hildeby’s five starts and .890 save percentage on the Marlies should demonstrate there wasn’t any rush on the Maple Leafs side of things to get him to the NHL, but what he’s done with the Maple Leafs is encouraging.

Hildeby still has just three starts this season for the Maple Leafs and while the results aren’t overly compelling, all three have seen Dennis peppered with over 30 shots (47, 37, 35) and the worst of those from a save percentage standpoint was .892. In relief this year, aided by some score effects, Hildeby’s results have been impressive enough to move his season save percentage up to .919, and Hildeby’s goals saved above expected per 60 minutes sits 4th in the NHL (1.064) of goaltenders who have played in five or more games. Strictly by this measure, he’s been the Leafs best goaltender this season.

Hildeby is certainly now worth a look, and the Leafs don’t really have any choice on that matter anyway. And while my intent was to write about how December offered an interesting opportunity to get Hildeby into the upcoming games against the Sharks, Blackhawks, and Predators, it is entirely possible that Hildeby will take the bulk of the next seven games depending on anticipated return dates for Woll or Stolarz.

No matter the results, this is a great opportunity for Hildeby to make his case, the Leafs to know what they have and whether moving a goaltender is something they can consider in the future, and in the worst case scenario the Leafs will ultimately return Hildeby to the Marlies with the best understanding of where his game needs to evolve, potentially making him a stronger prospect.

Buyer Beware on Kiefer Sherwood

Just say no to late bloomers on a heater.

Sherwood has found his right coach in Adam Foote. He knows how to use him to produce offensively and is comfortable with just sending him around the ice hitting everything that moves in the wrong colour jersey the rest of the time. There is appeal there.

The catch is that Sherwood is pending unrestricted free agent and potentially is wanting to be paid like a potential 30-goal scoring power forward instead of as the bottom six forward the previous few seasons show him to be, which is still a nice step forward after being an AHL callup for most of his career to that point. The Canucks know him best, he’s had his two most successful seasons with that organization, and they are looking to move him, that’s the first red flag when it comes to Sherwood.

Sherwood is also enjoying a shooting percentage north of 20% so far this season. Given the last time something similar happened with a hard hitting bottom six winger in Vancouver they overpaid on Dakota Joshua, it’s unlikely that they are willing to go down that path again. And while Sherwood’s 2024-25 season with a 13% shooting percentage still yielded 19 goals, which isn’t a bad number, it seems unlikely that the Canucks are shopping him as a 30-year-old winger who still has that as his high career watermark and instead they are looking to cash out on someone who is playing unsustainably good.

Rather than dump a table of shot differentials, expected goal differentials, and even goal differentials in here to further illustrate that Sherwood doesn’t drive play, is a liability defensively, and doesn’t have much to offer if he isn’t the fit he’s been in Vancouver, I’ll just ask how often the Maple Leafs need to learn the same lesson?

And while there isn’t anything out there connect the Maple Leafs to Sherwood, Brad Treliving’s desire for a bigger, tougher Leafs team means saying no to Sherwood preemptively.

Tinus Luc Koblar finding his pro game

I think about this tweet a lot when it comes to the Maple Leafs prospects. It applies universally (hence the tweet) but given the somewhat barren landscape when it comes to potential future stars in the Maple Leafs organization, this always hits home.

It’s a source of comfort when it comes to the Maple Leafs trading away someone like Fraser Minten and remembering that the odds of his career being consequential enough that Toronto will have heavy regrets about dealing him for a bottom six defenceman.

It’s a source of pain when you remember that Easton Cowan’s junior numbers don’t change the fact that his far more likely to be on a path to a serviceable middle six forward in the NHL than a future all-star.

The article is littered with encouraging takeaways. Koblar’s comfort in playing against older competition and quickly adapting to the physical and defensive zone requirements of the game. Signs of offensive creativity are there as well, but the “your favourite team got a steal” moment comes from the usage of Koblar.

Koblar only hovered around the ten minute a night mark, common for teenagers in the SHL, for the first three games. Since then, the minimum he’s played has been 12 minutes, but generally in the 16-17 minute range as a middle six centre. The article optimistically notes that Koblar could finish the season as Leksand’s top line centre. The caveat here is that Leksand is the bottom team in the league.

Tinus Luc Koblar’s stat line might seem underwhelming with 21 games played. Three goals and two assists is largely a product of largely bottom six forward roles on a poor result team isn’t going to be an accurate story and it will be interesting to see if a top six role pushes those numbers significantly upward.

You can’t really talk about where Koblar’s at without considering what should come next for him. Becoming an everyday player in the SHL seems like it is ahead of schedule development wise, but the next question should be whether or not Koblar’s growth would be stunted by staying on a bad team. Is a bad team going to bring in new coaches or find players that would push Koblar down their lineup next season? And is this uncertainty enough of a reason to bring him to North America? Should the Marlies be the plan regardless at this point?

Looking at the situation in isolation and being motivated by my own curiosity to see more of Koblar and giving him a chance to push for a bigger role, the Marlies seem like the right course of action. Koblar and Holinka would represent an encouraging youth movement for the Marlies next season and while Koblar can’t definitively be labeled a star, his development being ahead of schedule is nice.

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