Selection Sunday Eve offers up an absolutely massive slate of college basketball. It is headlined by the Big 12 Tournament championship game between the Houston Cougars and Arizona Wildcats, with tipoff set for 6:00 pm ET on ESPN in Kansas City. These are the top two seeds in arguably the best conference in basketball.
Here are my Houston vs. Arizona predictions.
Houston Cougars vs. Arizona Wildcats odds
Money line: Houston +120 / Arizona -142
Spread: Houston +1.5 (-102) / Arizona -1.5 (-118)
Total: Over 138.5 (-112) / Under 138.5 (-108)
Houston Cougars vs. Arizona Wildcats pick: Arizona -1.5 (-118)
Arizona had to put in a much tougher effort in the Big 12 semifinals on Friday, battling past Iowa State with a buzzer-beater before Houston humiliated Kansas. Still, that may not be the deciding factor in this contest. What may be more telling is what happened between these two teams in the only regular-season matchup, won by Arizona 73-66 on February 21. Sure, the Wildcats had home-court advantage — but they also had the disadvantage of being without star freshman Koa Peat. All things considered, it is a very encouraging result for the ‘Cats.
As good as the Cougars looked on Friday, walloping Kansas is nothing the Wildcats haven’t done. Arizona thrashed KU 84-61 on February 28. Kansas is 3-5 in its last eight games, whereas Iowa State is an awesome basketball team — so Houston really wasn’t any more impressive than Arizona in the semis.
‘Zona is 31-2 and ranked No. 2 in the country. The Wildcats’ current eight-game winning streak features five victories over top-25 opponents. Meanwhile, Houston is 2-8 against the spread in its last 10 overall.
Houston Cougars vs. Arizona Wildcats pick: Under 138.5 (-108)
These are simply two outstanding defensive teams. Houston is second nationally in scoring defense at 62.4 points per game allowed. The Cougars are 11th in the nation is opponents’ field-goal percentage (39.8). Arizona is giving up just 68.6 ppg and is fourth in shooting percentage defense (39.0). The Wildcats are third in overall defensive efficiency, while the Cougars are fifth (per KenPom).
Neither squad really pushes the pace. In fact, Houston is one of the slowest teams in the land. It is 325th out of 325 D1 teams in possessions per game at 67.2. Arizona ranks outside the top 50 in that department at 73.3 per game. The Cougars have limited five of their past six opponents to no more than 60 points; the Wildcats have given up 61 points or fewer in three of their last five outings.
The under is 10-3 in Houston’s last 13 overall and 6-3 in Arizona’s last nine.